Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. The political world really heats up this week after last week's Congressional recess and the previous week's snowstorms. And lucky for you, I'm feeling extra patriotic after the U.S. win over Canada in Olympic hockey last night.
HEALTH CARE: There seem to have been many "last chances" for health reform over the last year. This week might actually be the last chance to get something done. Later today, the President will unveil a proposal that will bridge the differences between the House and Senate bills and lay the path forward for health reform to be completed. I assume that the new bill will be a reconciliation bill. This would enable the House to pass the previously approved Senate bill, while both chambers enacted the President's recommended changes through new reconciliation legislation. I'm not entirely sure that the White House isn't proposing a new bill altogether. We'll have the full details in this evening's entry.
The new measure will contain a couple of key new provisions. The President will propose a new oversight board that will have the power to review and block premium increases by private insurers, like the one Anthem initiated last week in California. The bill will also include a Republican proposal to crack down on waste, fraud and abuse. This will not bring any Republicans into the fold, but it might ease the concerns of some Democrats that the White House isn't reaching out to the other side of the aisle. In addition, the White House proposal will eliminate the special deals that marred the final Senate bill, like Ben Nelson's infamous "Cornhusker Kickback." Eliminating these items will allow President Obama and the Democrats to say "we listened" to the voters in Massachusetts and elsewhere just as they pass a bill pretty similar to what has already passed both chambers.
The President is making this proposal in advance of Thursday's bipartisan health summit at the White House. The summit is completely for show. The President, again, is reaching out to the GOP not because he think he can get their votes, but because he thinks it will help him secure Democratic votes. For what it's worth, Majority Leader Reid thinks that this health summit will help the health care bill pass within 60 days.
I am encouraged for the first time in weeks about health reform. It seems like with the passage of time, and with a few good innovative ideas, the White House can help erase some of the ugliness that led to Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts. We'll see if it works out.
THE WHITE HOUSE: The President has a busy schedule beyond health care this week. Today, he will address the National Governor's Association. In the speech, the President will lay out a new initiative to create “new, state-of-the art assessments aligned to college and career-ready standards.” The initiative will be funded with $350 million of stimulus money. This proposal is part of the President's new found focus on education. He is looking this year to reauthorize George W. Bush's No Child Left Behind legislation, while revamping curriculum requirements for math and reading.
If I were a governor of either party, I would be focusing my energy on getting new stimulus/jobs money for state and local governments. Because of mandated balanced budgets in many states, governors have been forced to make painful cuts, which has caused massive job losses.
The President later has meetings with California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), and cabinet Secretaries Hilda Solis (Labor) and Tom Vilsack (agriculture).
THE SENATE: Speaking of jobs, the Senate will take a key test vote tonight on whether to proceed to Majority Leader Reid's scaled-back $15 billion jobs legislation. As we've talked about before, the legislation includes a payroll tax holiday for small businesses that hire new workers, a reauthorization of highway funds, bonds for state and local governments, and other small business tax breaks. Because of the illness of Senator Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), Reid will need at least two Republicans to vote for the bill in order for it to move forward. No Republicans have formally committed to advancing the bill, though some, including Scott Brown, have hinted that they might let the bill proceed. Republicans are still angry at Reid for abandoning a bipartisan Senate Finance Committee jobs bill that included a whole bunch of Republican goodies.
If Reid can round up 60 votes to advance the bill, I expect the bill to be debated for a couple of days before a vote on final passage. After the Senate passes this bill, I wouldn't be surprised to see the House approve it quickly and send it along to President Obama. Reid wants to move next to a bill that extends unemployment benefits and COBRA health benefits. He hopes to start consideration of that bill this week.
THE HOUSE: The House gets back to work this week with a lot left on its plate after snow canceled business two weeks ago. The House will vote on suspension bills today and tomorrow. On Wednesday, the House will consider legislation to reorganize the Native Hawaiian Government (whatever that means). On Thursday, the House will vote on a bill that removes the health insurance industry's anti-trust status. As we've talked about before, this would do little to help lower health care costs, but it is always good politically to vote against the interest of the health insurance industry. The House will also vote on a bill to authorize intelligence programs.
We'll keep you up to date on Congress' happenings throughout the week.
Thanks for tuning it. We'll see you tonight! Please leave some comments!
Monday, February 22, 2010
Thursday, February 18, 2010
The Daily Strike-2/18/10-Let's Form a Commission
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. This will be our last entry until Monday. I will be escaping politics this weekend skiing in the Poconos with Lady Strike.
DEFICIT COMMISSION: The President today announced the creation of a bipartisan commission to address the federal deficit. As we mentioned the other day, the President tapped former Clinton Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles and former Republican Senator Alan Simpson (WY). The commission will function as follows:
-The President will appoint 6 panelists, with no more than 4 from one political party. Basically that means there will be 4 Democrats and 2 Republicans. Obviously, the White House has already chosen two of the panelists.
-The other 12 panelists will be chosen by Congressional leaders. House Democrats, House Republicans, Senate Democrats and Senate Republicans will each appoint 3 members.
-14 of the 18 commissioners must agree to the plan for it to move forward. That means that probably 4 Republicans will have to endorse the commission's recommendations.
-The plan must be submitted by December 1st of this year, when it would presumably be presented to Congress for a vote.
I'm very skeptical that this commission will solve our deficit problems. At some point, Congress will have to vote on a package that inevitably will contain massive tax increases (probably including some on the middle class), huge discretionary spending cuts, and decreased entitlements. Congress can't even pass a modest decrease in Medicare as part of a larger health care bill. I just have such little confidence that Congress will ever be able to make tough choices.
I've been adamant that we should not freak out about the deficit during this recession. The best way to cut the deficit is to create jobs, and thus increase tax revenue. Politically, I think people wouldn't worry so much about the deficit if the jobs situation improved. Therefore, I wish the President would create a job-creation commission instead of this commission. At least he should have created both.
CPAC: It's that time of the year, the time when conservatives descend on our nation's capital for the CPAC conference. Today was the first day of the conference, and it featured a star-studded lineup of angry, motivated conservative leaders. Dick Cheney spoke, saying that President Obama is going to be a one-termer. Mitt Romney was there with new Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. Conservative darling Marco Rubio, the former Republican House Speaker running against moderate Republican Governor Charlie Crist for the United States Senate, gave a generic Republican manifesto speech about cutting taxes and killing terrorists. The conference makes very clear: Republicans are enthusiastic, optimistic and energized now. House Minority Leader John Boehner even started talking about what he would do as House Speaker.
Democrats have no chance of changing the minds of people like those at CPAC. Nor is it likely that they'll do well with independents this year. Their only possible saving grace is to motivate their base. They will have to do that two ways: actually accomplish something legislatively and draw sharp distinctions between ourselves and the Republicans. So far Democrats, from President Obama on down, seem reluctant to take either of these steps.
That's it for tonight. I'll see you on Monday. Congress will come back in session, and we'll have more to talk about.
DEFICIT COMMISSION: The President today announced the creation of a bipartisan commission to address the federal deficit. As we mentioned the other day, the President tapped former Clinton Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles and former Republican Senator Alan Simpson (WY). The commission will function as follows:
-The President will appoint 6 panelists, with no more than 4 from one political party. Basically that means there will be 4 Democrats and 2 Republicans. Obviously, the White House has already chosen two of the panelists.
-The other 12 panelists will be chosen by Congressional leaders. House Democrats, House Republicans, Senate Democrats and Senate Republicans will each appoint 3 members.
-14 of the 18 commissioners must agree to the plan for it to move forward. That means that probably 4 Republicans will have to endorse the commission's recommendations.
-The plan must be submitted by December 1st of this year, when it would presumably be presented to Congress for a vote.
I'm very skeptical that this commission will solve our deficit problems. At some point, Congress will have to vote on a package that inevitably will contain massive tax increases (probably including some on the middle class), huge discretionary spending cuts, and decreased entitlements. Congress can't even pass a modest decrease in Medicare as part of a larger health care bill. I just have such little confidence that Congress will ever be able to make tough choices.
I've been adamant that we should not freak out about the deficit during this recession. The best way to cut the deficit is to create jobs, and thus increase tax revenue. Politically, I think people wouldn't worry so much about the deficit if the jobs situation improved. Therefore, I wish the President would create a job-creation commission instead of this commission. At least he should have created both.
CPAC: It's that time of the year, the time when conservatives descend on our nation's capital for the CPAC conference. Today was the first day of the conference, and it featured a star-studded lineup of angry, motivated conservative leaders. Dick Cheney spoke, saying that President Obama is going to be a one-termer. Mitt Romney was there with new Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. Conservative darling Marco Rubio, the former Republican House Speaker running against moderate Republican Governor Charlie Crist for the United States Senate, gave a generic Republican manifesto speech about cutting taxes and killing terrorists. The conference makes very clear: Republicans are enthusiastic, optimistic and energized now. House Minority Leader John Boehner even started talking about what he would do as House Speaker.
Democrats have no chance of changing the minds of people like those at CPAC. Nor is it likely that they'll do well with independents this year. Their only possible saving grace is to motivate their base. They will have to do that two ways: actually accomplish something legislatively and draw sharp distinctions between ourselves and the Republicans. So far Democrats, from President Obama on down, seem reluctant to take either of these steps.
That's it for tonight. I'll see you on Monday. Congress will come back in session, and we'll have more to talk about.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
The Daily Strike-2/17/10-One Year Stimulus Push
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. It's been one year since we were disappointed that Congress only enacted at $787 billion spending bill chalked full of progressive priorities because it wasn't big enough. We were right, of course. But still, times have changed.
STIMULUS: Today, the President and politicians across the spectrum marked the one-year anniversary of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. New York Times David Leonhardt seems to have emboldened liberals by writing a great piece citing the successes of the stimulus. Independent analysts now agree that the stimulus saved or created at least 2.4 million jobs. The economy went from losing 700,000 jobs per month a year ago from basically breaking even the past few months. We are now growing at a 5.6% pace, when we were actually contracting a year ago. It's time for everyone to admit it: the stimulus worked.
The President tried to make that case today. He correctly noted that the stimulus helped us avoid a Great Depression, and has helped facilitate our recovery. He was introduced by Vice President Biden, who has successfully overseen the implementation of the act, with only minimal hiccups.
The problem for the Democrats is that virtually nobody sees the stimulus as a success. An insanely low 6% of Americans think that the stimulus created jobs, according to a recent poll. The obvious reasons for this. The unemployment rate has risen since the act was signed, which is pretty much all people see or care about. It's hard to be touting a successful economic policy with 10% unemployment. This confirms Paul Krugman's theory a year ago, that the stimulus would be too small, meaning it wouldn't be effective enough to change the employment picture, meaning it would be associated with economic failure.
The Democrats therefore will have to embark on a massive political effort to sell the stimulus. They've been using a pretty effective strategy lately by pointing out the hypocrisy of GOP members of Congress railing against the stimulus while attending ribbon-cutting ceremonies of stimulus-funded projects at home. What they really should do is hammer home real-world examples of stimulus money creating jobs. Firemen, policy officers and teachers are always good to highlight. They can also throw this graph around a lot.
JOBS: Breaking news: Harry Reid is a pretty bad Majority Leader. Last week, Senator Reid scrapped a bipartisan Senate Finance Committee Jobs bill and instead pushed a pared-down $15 billion bill. Apparently, this move has angered enough Republicans and Democrats that Reid may not have the 60 votes needed to advance the bill. Reid will need to hold his entire 59 member caucus together, and he needs to pick up a Republican vote. Apparently, Reid has been reaching out to none other that new Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. I'll be interested to see if Brown can support a tiny bill that's basically full of tax cuts. My guess is that, as always, the Democrats won't get any Republican votes, because Republicans, again do not want Democrats to succeed at anything.
HEALTH CARE: There is a small possibility that a deal could be in the works on health reform. Apparently the White House is helping to ease the process of the House passing the Senate bill, with both chambers passing fixes to the bill through reconciliation. The proverbial unnamed Democratic source even says that Senate Democrats are now likely to support this effort because they just want health care to go away once and for all. Rep. Chris Van Hollen, assistant to Speaker Pelosi, claims that the House and Senate are on the cusp of a deal. I'll believe it when I see it. It would be great if the Democrats could have a firm plan to handle health care when President Obama holds his bipartisan summit on February 25th.
That's it for now. See you tomorrow!
STIMULUS: Today, the President and politicians across the spectrum marked the one-year anniversary of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. New York Times David Leonhardt seems to have emboldened liberals by writing a great piece citing the successes of the stimulus. Independent analysts now agree that the stimulus saved or created at least 2.4 million jobs. The economy went from losing 700,000 jobs per month a year ago from basically breaking even the past few months. We are now growing at a 5.6% pace, when we were actually contracting a year ago. It's time for everyone to admit it: the stimulus worked.
The President tried to make that case today. He correctly noted that the stimulus helped us avoid a Great Depression, and has helped facilitate our recovery. He was introduced by Vice President Biden, who has successfully overseen the implementation of the act, with only minimal hiccups.
The problem for the Democrats is that virtually nobody sees the stimulus as a success. An insanely low 6% of Americans think that the stimulus created jobs, according to a recent poll. The obvious reasons for this. The unemployment rate has risen since the act was signed, which is pretty much all people see or care about. It's hard to be touting a successful economic policy with 10% unemployment. This confirms Paul Krugman's theory a year ago, that the stimulus would be too small, meaning it wouldn't be effective enough to change the employment picture, meaning it would be associated with economic failure.
The Democrats therefore will have to embark on a massive political effort to sell the stimulus. They've been using a pretty effective strategy lately by pointing out the hypocrisy of GOP members of Congress railing against the stimulus while attending ribbon-cutting ceremonies of stimulus-funded projects at home. What they really should do is hammer home real-world examples of stimulus money creating jobs. Firemen, policy officers and teachers are always good to highlight. They can also throw this graph around a lot.
JOBS: Breaking news: Harry Reid is a pretty bad Majority Leader. Last week, Senator Reid scrapped a bipartisan Senate Finance Committee Jobs bill and instead pushed a pared-down $15 billion bill. Apparently, this move has angered enough Republicans and Democrats that Reid may not have the 60 votes needed to advance the bill. Reid will need to hold his entire 59 member caucus together, and he needs to pick up a Republican vote. Apparently, Reid has been reaching out to none other that new Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. I'll be interested to see if Brown can support a tiny bill that's basically full of tax cuts. My guess is that, as always, the Democrats won't get any Republican votes, because Republicans, again do not want Democrats to succeed at anything.
HEALTH CARE: There is a small possibility that a deal could be in the works on health reform. Apparently the White House is helping to ease the process of the House passing the Senate bill, with both chambers passing fixes to the bill through reconciliation. The proverbial unnamed Democratic source even says that Senate Democrats are now likely to support this effort because they just want health care to go away once and for all. Rep. Chris Van Hollen, assistant to Speaker Pelosi, claims that the House and Senate are on the cusp of a deal. I'll believe it when I see it. It would be great if the Democrats could have a firm plan to handle health care when President Obama holds his bipartisan summit on February 25th.
That's it for now. See you tomorrow!
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
The Daily Strike-2/16/10-Getting Nuclear
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. The political world is still reacting to the retirement of Democratic Senator Evan Bayh (IN). I'll just say, read my previous entry. I don't like that guy at all.
ENERGY: The President gave a speech on clean energy today at a local union hall in Maryland. The key tenet of his speech was a proposal to build two new nuclear power plants with $8 billion in government loan guarantees. Environmentalists have long been opposed to the use of nuclear energy, and the Republicans have consistently talked about nuclear energy as a way to increase our energy independence. The President's speech today tried to bridge those views. Obama talked about how nuclear power produces very low emissions, and can be a key tool in addressing climate change. This announcement would seem to be an olive branch to Republicans. Republican outsiders liked former Rep. Joe Scarborough effusively praised the President after he made this announcement. Obama also announced new efforts to spur growth in wind and solar energy as well.
It would be ok for President Obama offer a nuclear energy olive branch if he got assurances from Republicans that they would support cap-and-trade or a carbon tax. We all know that is not going to happen. I'm tired of Democrats making concessions without getting anything in return. That's not a good way to act when you're in the majority.
In fact, the Democrats have done that repeatedly on health care. We gave up the public option, we added provisions related to tort reform. By the time the Senate voted on final passage, the bill was completely stripped down from its original version. Yet all of these efforts yielded Republican votes. President Obama and Democrats must learn to be more effective deal-makers if they are going to have any legislative successes this year.
DEFICIT COMMISSION: On Thursday, the President will announce the creation of a deficit reduction panel. The panel will submit its recommendations to Congress, supposedly. The reason the President has to create this commission by executive order is because a similar provision was defeated in the United States Senate. Former White House Chief of Staff to Bill Clinton, Erskine Bowles, and former Republican Senate Whip Alan Simpson (WY) will chair and co-chair the committee. We'll have more on this commission after the announcement on Thursday.
That is it for tonight. See you tomorrow!
ENERGY: The President gave a speech on clean energy today at a local union hall in Maryland. The key tenet of his speech was a proposal to build two new nuclear power plants with $8 billion in government loan guarantees. Environmentalists have long been opposed to the use of nuclear energy, and the Republicans have consistently talked about nuclear energy as a way to increase our energy independence. The President's speech today tried to bridge those views. Obama talked about how nuclear power produces very low emissions, and can be a key tool in addressing climate change. This announcement would seem to be an olive branch to Republicans. Republican outsiders liked former Rep. Joe Scarborough effusively praised the President after he made this announcement. Obama also announced new efforts to spur growth in wind and solar energy as well.
It would be ok for President Obama offer a nuclear energy olive branch if he got assurances from Republicans that they would support cap-and-trade or a carbon tax. We all know that is not going to happen. I'm tired of Democrats making concessions without getting anything in return. That's not a good way to act when you're in the majority.
In fact, the Democrats have done that repeatedly on health care. We gave up the public option, we added provisions related to tort reform. By the time the Senate voted on final passage, the bill was completely stripped down from its original version. Yet all of these efforts yielded Republican votes. President Obama and Democrats must learn to be more effective deal-makers if they are going to have any legislative successes this year.
DEFICIT COMMISSION: On Thursday, the President will announce the creation of a deficit reduction panel. The panel will submit its recommendations to Congress, supposedly. The reason the President has to create this commission by executive order is because a similar provision was defeated in the United States Senate. Former White House Chief of Staff to Bill Clinton, Erskine Bowles, and former Republican Senate Whip Alan Simpson (WY) will chair and co-chair the committee. We'll have more on this commission after the announcement on Thursday.
That is it for tonight. See you tomorrow!
Monday, February 15, 2010
Mini-Strike: Bayh Retires
Just a quick update not meriting a full entry:
Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh has announced his retirement. The self-proclaimed centrist and deficit hawk, who enjoyed being a thorn in the side of his party, dealt the Democrats one more giant blow by not announcing his retirement until after last week's filing deadline. The Democrats will be forced to choose their candidate in a state nominating convention.
Bayh's seat will now move into the "Tossup" rating on our election scorecard. Once we know more about the race, it's possible that Bayh's seat could move into Lean Republican territory because of the current political climate. As others have noted, it is now a somewhat realistic (though still unlikely) proposition that the Republicans could take back the Senate this November. Right now I'm projecting a 51-44 Democrat lead in the Senate with 5 tossups. There are two races I rate as "Lean Democrat" though, and if those were to flip, the Republicans would gain control and flip Obama's presidency on its head even more than it is now.
Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh has announced his retirement. The self-proclaimed centrist and deficit hawk, who enjoyed being a thorn in the side of his party, dealt the Democrats one more giant blow by not announcing his retirement until after last week's filing deadline. The Democrats will be forced to choose their candidate in a state nominating convention.
Bayh's seat will now move into the "Tossup" rating on our election scorecard. Once we know more about the race, it's possible that Bayh's seat could move into Lean Republican territory because of the current political climate. As others have noted, it is now a somewhat realistic (though still unlikely) proposition that the Republicans could take back the Senate this November. Right now I'm projecting a 51-44 Democrat lead in the Senate with 5 tossups. There are two races I rate as "Lean Democrat" though, and if those were to flip, the Republicans would gain control and flip Obama's presidency on its head even more than it is now.
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