The Weekly Strike-7/19-7/25

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. It promises to be a pretty busy week in politics, so let's get right to it.

THE SENATE: Even after the passage of landmark Wall Street Reform last week, most eyes will again be focused on the United States Senate. Tomorrow, the newest Senator, Carte Goodwin of West Virginia, will be sworn into office by Vice President Biden. Soon afterward, the Senate will vote on the long-stalled bill to extend unemployment benefits to those most hurt by the recession. Democrats should finally have the 60 votes necessary to advance the bill. If the Senate passes the House-passed bill unchanged, the President will sign it into law this week, and the benefits will go into effect retroactively.

The Senate will also try to finish a bill providing loans to small businesses, though Republicans have been successful so far in obstructing the bill's consideration.

Over in the committee realm, the Senate Judiciary panel will vote on the nomination of Elena Kagan to be a Supreme Court Justice. Since we've heard pretty much nothing on her nomination since her confirmation hearings a few weeks ago, I expect her to be confirmed quite easily. All 12 Democrats on the committee almost certainly will support her nomination (even former critic Arlen Specter has announced his support). Of the 7 Republicans on the committee, only Lindsay Graham (SC) might cross party lines on Kagan's behalf. A vote in the full Senate is expected during the first week in August.

Majority Leader Reid wants to bring two other important bills up before that time, though I'm certainly skeptical. One bill would be a scaled-down energy bill that focused on investments in clean energy paired with carbon pricing for the utilities sector. Republicans may vote to allow consideration of the bill just so they can highlight their opposition to it, but I don't see any Republicans crossing over to support the legislation during an election year. So far, Democrat Ben Nelson (NE) has already voiced his opposition. The newest West Virginia Senator didn't sound very enthusiastic about the bill either.

Democrats also hoped to move on the House-passed campaign finance bill (the DISCLOSE Act), but with moderate Republicans Brown (MA) and Snowe (ME) in opposition, the bill's chances are looking pretty dim. Thus, with financial reform complete, and the Senate still dealing with constant obstruction and stagnation, we may have seen the last of the major pieces of legislation in the 111th Congress.

THE HOUSE: The House has a much more quiet week, as they continue to await action from their Senate counterparts. After doing suspension bills today and tomorrow, the House will take up a bill that requires the national flood insurance program to enable the purchase of "multiperil" coverage. The House will also take up the unemployment bill if the Senate makes any changes to it.

THE WHITE HOUSE: The President will start the week with a well-timed push for the unemployment insurance extension. Apparently, he will (for the first time in recent memory) tell the stories of real Americans who have been hurt by the Republicans obstruction. He should have been doing this much earlier, so that he could create a narrative about the Republicans only looking out for their wealthy friends, while he is protecting the working man hurt by the recession. Anything he does now might be too late to make a difference in the mind of voters ahead of the election. The President will also meet today with former Senator and astronaut John Glenn (D-OH) to discuss space policy.

Later in the week, the President will sign the financial reform bill into law at a large White House signing ceremony. He also plans to visit Illinois to campaign for the Democrat running for Obama's old Senate seat.

That's it for now, see you this evening.

The Weekly Strike-7/12-7/18

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. Now that the World Cup is over, and baseball season is on a brief hiatus, I can turn my full focus to politics. Lucky for you!

UNFINISHED BUSINESS: The theme of the week will be the ability (or lack thereof) of the United States Senate to complete some very important unfinished business. Still outstanding are an extension of unemployment benefits that failed by a single vote at the end of June, and the conference report accompanying the Financial Reform bill. Each bill was about one vote short at the end of the last session, and that vote could be the potential appointee of Governor Joe Manchin (D-WV), to replace the late Senator Byrd. However, Manchin is proving to be a bit of a pain in the neck. Since he's angling to run for the Senate seat himself this year, he's approaching this "strategically" meaning he's actually just dithering. The longer Manchin waits, the longer these pieces of legislation will languish, most likely.

On the unemployment bill, 57 of 58 Democrats, excluding Ben Nelson (NE) voted to end debate, as did Republicans Snowe and Collins of Maine. With the new West Virginia Senator, that could be law within days, giving essential relief to those afflicted by the joblessness crisis. On financial reform, Democrats have the firm support of Republican Susan Collins, and tepid support of Senators Snowe and Brown (MA). Senator Cantwell (WA), who voted against the original bill, has announced her support, leaving Senator Feingold (WI) as the only Democratic holdout. If everyone else votes as expected, this leaves Democrats with exactly 60 votes, possibly 61 depending on the ever-so non-dependable Chuck Grassley (R-IA), who voted yes the first time. Since the House has already passed the conference report, the Senate pretty much needs to an affirmative vote, lest they want to go through the arduous process of reconvening the conference committee to make even further changes. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the Republicans played the Lucy/football routine with Democratic leaders.

The Senate also will try to complete work on a bill that provides for increased loans to small businesses, and will consider, but probably not doing anything, on a potential climate/energy bill that Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) hopes to take up next week. The bill will only include subsidies for alternative energy, and will most likely not include a meaningful cap on carbon emissions.

The Senate Judiciary Committee, due to Republican delays, will probably not vote on the Supreme Court nomination of Elena Kagan this week. That should come next week, with a final full Senate vote coming at the end of the month. Kagan's confirmation is looking like the only sure thing in this bleak-looking Senate session.

THE HOUSE: The House, as usual, will be in a major holding pattern this week waiting on their Senate counterparts. After working on suspensions tomorrow and Wednesday, the House will consider two substantive bills. The first would allow government agencies to come up with policies that maximize workers' ability to tele-commute, provided that it doesn't hurt productivity. The bill is expected to save the Federal Government a little bit of money. The bill got an overwhelming number of votes a couple of weeks ago, but failed to get the 2/3rds vote required to pass under suspension of the rules. They'll try again on Thursday. Also, the House will consider a bill that reforms National Flood Insurance.

THE WHITE HOUSE: President Obama will be closely monitoring this week's Senate happenings, but he also has a few other items on his agenda. Today, he will meet with with a member of his Council on Foreign Relations, and with President Fernandez of the Domincan Republic. Nothing else is known yet about what's on the President's schedule.

That's it for now, leave some comments!

The Weekly Strike-6/28-7/4

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. It is such an extraordinarily action packed week in Washington, that we may not be able to get to everything. But we'll try!

THE SENATE: We start with the sad news this morning that Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV) has passed away at the age of 92. Byrd was the longest serving member of Congress in our country's history, and he has been West Virginia's Senator since my parents were toddlers. Byrd's legacy in my view is mixed. He started out his career as a segregationist former member of the KKK who filibustered civil rights bills. He later repudiated his past views and said that there is no room for discrimination in our country. By the time he was in his twilight years, he was a strong supporter of President Barack Obama, and a solid Democrat on every major issue. I was particularly moved by Byrd's strong opposition to the Iraq War in 2002, when every Republican and most Democrats were acting as cheerleaders for President Bush. His position wasn't popular at the time, but it was principled.

Byrd will also be known for being a Senate institutionalist. He cared about the Senate's rules and procedures, and knew more about them than anyone else. Byrd served as Majority Leader during the Carter Presidency, and as Minority Leader for much of the Reagan years. From 1989-1995, and 2007 to his death, he served as the President Pro Tempore of the Senate, a position that put him 3rd in line to the Presidency. In one of his last act's, he cast a deciding vote for health reform, uttering "this one's for Teddy" as he voted on the Senate floor. While he can never be forgiven for his past views on race, he made some enormous positive contributions to our country.

Moving from the obituary to the crass political realities, the focus now switches to Byrd's replacement. West Virginia's Governor Joe Manchin, a Democrat, will pick the next Senator, most likely as a placeholder for Manchin himself, who has long been interested in serving in the world's most deliberative body. The question now is when the next election will be. State law says that if a vacancy occurs 2.5 years prior to the scheduled election, then a special election will be held during the upcoming November elections. Byrd's passing came just before that July 3rd cutoff, so it would appear as if Byrd's successor would only serve until the next Senator was elected this year. However, there are some ambiguities in the law. Manchin could decide to wait to declare the vacancy until next Saturday, which would put the next election in 2012. Democratic leaders do not want to have to defend another difficult seat in this fall's elections.

There are two complications here. The first is that Democrats might need another vote this week when the Senate takes up the conference report on the financial regulation bill. The bill got 61 votes when it originally passed in May, though not all of the "yes" votes seem pinned down at this point, especially Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown (R-MA), who is using his swing-vote status to make a fuss over various provisions. If Brown were to switch to the no column, Democrats would either need to seat Byrd's replacement, or convince one of their two holdouts from the left, Senators Feingold and Cantwell, to vote yes. It is also possible that Byrd's death moves consideration of the conference report until after the July 4th recess. The other complication is whether Manchin thinks he has a better chance of winning this fall or in 2012. I frankly don't think even a popular governor like Manchin would be a shoo-in in an increasingly conservative state this election year.

One thing we do know for sure is that Senator Daniel Inouye (D-HI) is the most senior Democrat in the Senate, and is likely to be the next President Pro Tempore.

As for the Senate's schedule this week, we do still expect to see consideration of the aforementioned conference report before the chamber adjourns on Friday. Today, the Senate will begin consideration of a House-passed bill designed to spur lending to small business.

Overshadowed in all of the news recently is the nomination of Elena Kagan to be a Supreme Court Justice. The hearings for Kagan's nomination will take place starting today, and continuing throughout the week. I don't anticipate Kagan having too tough of a time. She is a very polished orator, and has argued cases before the Supreme Court as Obama's Solicitor General. She shouldn't have any difficulties standing up to Republican misfits, who have yet to find their footing in opposition. We'll have continuing coverage of Kagan's hearings as they progress this week.

THE HOUSE: The House also has a busy schedule as it wraps up before the recess. Today and tomorrow, the House will deal with a large slew of suspension bills. Most likely on Wednesday, the House will take up the financial regulation conference report. I don't anticipate the conference report running into too much trouble in the House. If Nancy Pelosi could pull together 218 votes for a slightly unpopular health care bill, she can surely do so for a far more popular Wall Street reform measure.

The House also will presumably take up the war funding bill, though it's still unclear whether Democrats will try to attach some jobs-related measures. My recommendation would be to attach at least an extension of unemployment benefits to the war funding bill, but we'll see what House leaders have in mind.

THE WHITE HOUSE: President Obama has returned to Washington after an eventful G20 summit this weekend in Toronto. Leaders of the G20 struck a deal that calls for significant deficit reduction in member countries by 2013. President Obama seemed alone in making the case that governments should not stifle the economic recovery by premature worries about rising deficits and debt. I wish Obama had made that case more effectively to Congress and the American people this past week, when a modest jobs measure was killed in the Senate due to misguided deficit concerns.

The President has the day off today, but will surely be keeping an eye on the Kagan nomination, and the final push for financial regulation.

Yes, it is quite a week in Washington.

The Weekly Strike-6/21-6/27

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. We hope you all had a great weekend and are ready to dive back into the depressing world of politics.

THE WHITE HOUSE: The President begins his week not with any of the myriad of issues on his plate, but rather by giving a speech in Ward 8 of Washington, DC on the importance of fatherhood. A similar speech he gave on Father's Day 2008, in Chicago, was one of my favorite of his speeches. At that point, I thought his challenge of deadbeat Dads could really help him break down the cultural divide that has killed Democrats for generations. I guess he's still trying.

Other than that, the President will hold a meeting Wednesday at the White House with members of both parties to discuss comprehensive energy legislation. The President is really trying to push something through by the end of the summer, but I just don't see that happening. For one thing, the Senate only has 30 days left in session before it's August recess, and it still must deal with the current extenders package, war funding, the Financial Regulation conference report, and the Elena Kagan nomination. The way the Senate works these days, I doubt they'll even be able to start consideration of a climate bill. Not to mention the fact that Democrats are nowhere near agreement on how to proceed.The lead negotiators of the bill, Senators Lieberman (CT) and Kerry (MA) both insist that some sort of bill that prices carbon is possible, but I just don't see where the 60 votes are. Republicans no matter what will insist that the bill represents a national energy tax, and coal state Democrats are happy to team up with their Republican rivals on this one.

This weekend, the President will travel to the G20 summit in Toronto, where he will discuss the global economy with world leaders. This will be his first meeting with the new Prime Minister of Great Britain, David Cameron, since Cameron assumed office last month.

THE SENATE: The Senate will start today with votes on three District Court nominees. These nominees are finally starting to move through the Senate after numerous Republican delay tactics. The Senate will then somehow try to finish work on the tax extenders bill, which includes an extension of unemployment insurance. Twice last week, the Senate failed to achieve cloture on two separate versions of the bill, so I guess they'll have to keep negotiating. I fear the fate of struggling Americans falls in the hands of moderate Republicans Snowe (ME), Collins (ME) and Brown (MA), who will be able to extract some serious concessions. I know I covered this extensively last week, but I'll reiterate how much of a shame it is that the Senate can't move this basic package of recession safety net programs. It's very easy to be obsessed with the deficit when you make a secure $150,000 a year, with a pension on the horizon, and you don't even know how to use an ATM card.

It's possible that the Senate will take up the conference report on Financial Regulation if conferees can finish their work this week. More likely, the bill will come up next week, or just after the July recess.

THE HOUSE: The House once again has a busy schedule. After dealing with suspension bills tomorrow and Wednesday, the House will try once again to take up the DISCLOSE Act, which sets new requirements for corporations donating to political campaigns. The bill had to be pulled last week after objections were made to a compromise made with the NRA that exempted the gun organization from the bill's regulations. Hopefully they'll work out this issue by the end of the week.

It's also possible that the House will take up the Senate-passed war funding bill. Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey (D-WI) has been trying to delay the bill until the Senate finishes its extenders package (good for him!). But if the Pentagon says they need money, they'll usually get it. What remains to be seen is whether Obey can succeed in adding funding for state and local governments to prevent layoffs to teachers and public service employees.

We may also see the House take up the conference report on the Iran sanctions bill, which is expected to get broad bipartisan support.

That's it for now, leave some comments!

The Weekly Strike-6/14-6/20

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. It looks like this is the week President Obama will try to take full charge of the oil spill response. Let's get to the week in politics.

THE WHITE HOUSE: After facing complaints that he has been slow to react to the devastating oil spill in the gulf coast, the President this week will take matters into his own hands. Today and tomorrow, he will be traveling to the Gulf Coast states of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana to again tour the devastation. When he returns, he will address the nation from the Oval Office, his first such address as President. There is no setting more Presidential than an Oval Office address, and it seems like President Obama wants to prove to the American people that he is ready to be a true leader in cleaning up this mess.

Along with the change of style, the administration is also pursuing a change in policy. The Obama administration will ask BP executives at a Wednesday meeting to set up an escrow account, worth up to $20 billion, to fully repay victims of the disaster. BP is publicly mum on whether they will accept this plan, but my guess is that they'll be publicly ho-hum, while fighting tooth-and-nail in private. I'm frankly more interested in what comes out of this meeting than I am with the President's speech tomorrow night. This is where we'll learn whether the Obama administration can get sucker-punch a corporation that has been thoroughly discredited in public.

I'm also pleased to see that the President is taking some leadership on the jobs issue. This Saturday night, Obama sent a letter to Congressional leaders asking them to approve $50 billion in emergency funding for states and localities to prevent layoffs to teachers, firefighters and policemen. It's unclear whether Democrats on Capital Hill can move this funding quickly. They'd probably have to include it in the current jobs legislation, now on the Senate floor, or as part of a larger war-funding measure. Nothing could do more immediately to stave off a double-dip recession than emergency spending to protect state employees. It may not make sense to brain-dead conservatives, but it's not exactly a great investment in our future when kids are forced to sit in classes with 100 other students, police forces can't protect neighborhoods, and thousands of workers don't have any money to spend.

This funding will be universally opposed by Republicans, who have taken up the mantle of deficit-peacocks this election season. The big problem, once again, will be Blue Dog Democrats, whose misguided concerns about the debt will lead them to oppose this common-sense jobs measure, which in turn will keep joblessness high and doom their chances for reelection. To win over some Blue Dogs, the best option might be to couple this emergency funding with steps two or three years down the road that reduce the deficit. This way, you can do something about the jobs situation now, but also improve our fiscal balance sheet in the long-term.

THE SENATE: The Senate this week will continue to slog through the bill to extend a variety of tax provisions, as well as long-term unemployment benefits. The bill has been hung up while Democrats seek to find spending offsets and make other changes. There will be no votes on the bill today or tomorrow, so the earliest we could see final action on this bill probably won't be until Thursday or Friday.

The Senate will also take up some District Court nominees tomorrow.

THE HOUSE: The House gavels in today for a busy week of work. After dealing with suspension bills today and tomorrow, the House will take up a measure designed to spur lending to small businesses. This is a bill pushed heavily by the White House in recent weeks. I expect the bill to pass, with little to no Republican support. I would love to see how they explain away this one!

The House also might take action on a couple of other key pieces of legislation. It's possible we could see consideration of the DISCLOSE Act, a bill that would require corporations to stand by their advertisements of political candidates. This bill is in response to the Supreme Court's decision in the Citizens United case. It's possible we could see the House take up the war-funding bill by the end of the week as well.

That's it for now, see you tonight!

The Weekly Strike-6/7-6/13

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. We apologize for the delay in getting this posted, but there seems to have been a problem with Blogger this morning. Now, on to the week in politics.

THE WHITE HOUSE: Congress is back in session this week, but the political world’s collective minds will be focused on two things: how the President continues dealing with the oil spill and other crises, and some very important primary elections tomorrow night. Let’s start with the former. The President continues to put himself out there on the oil spill. Today, he holds a high profile meeting with his cabinet and Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen to discuss the latest efforts to mitigate the spill. I’ve tried to ignore the media obsession about whether President Obama is sufficiently angry about the spill, but I’m glad to see that he’s become more directly involved in the last week or so in coordinating cleanup efforts. It looks like the latest effort to cap the well has been partially successful, though stopping the spill completely probably won’t take place until August.

The President goes to Michigan this afternoon to speak a high school graduation ceremony at a school that won a “Race to the Top” grant for innovative, accountable education. Also on his schedule this week is a stop at a senior center in Wheaton, MD to talk about health reform. I’m sure he’ll address the story about how a startup insurance company in Virginia is closing because of the “uncertainty” caused by health insurance reform. Or maybe it’s that their company sucks and they’re looking for someone to blame.

The President will also be closely involved this week in trying to speed up conference negotiations on the Wall Street reform bill. The House is expected to name negotiators this week, and the conference is slated to start next week. President Obama wants to finish the bill before the G20 summit in Toronto at the end of the month, so that he can help promote U.S. initiatives to the global community. According to the New York Times, the top issues in conference will be the derivatives language authored by Senator Lincoln (AR), the so-called Volcker rule, and the interchange fees that retailers pay issuers of credit and debit cards.

ELECTIONS: Tomorrow night is election night, and there are some very interesting races happening all over the country. The most important, perhaps, is an Arkansas, where incumbent Senator Lincoln is locked in a tight primary runoff with Lt. Governor Bill Halter. Halter, buoyed by support from liberal groups and organized labor, has taken a small lead in the polls, and I expect him to win due to his more enthusiastic base. Lincoln would be the third incumbent Senator this year to lose a primary race for reelection.

In California, Republican voters will choose the nominees for Senator (to run against Barbara Boxer) and Governor. Odds are that the nods will go to Carly Fiorina, eccentric former head of Hewlett-Packard, and Meg Whitman, former CEO of EBAY. I think Boxer is hoping for the gaffe-prone Fiorina to win. It would be sweet for Boxer to beat someone this fall who dismisses global warming as “concerns about the weather.”

Over in Nevada, voters will choose the nominee to face Majority Leader Harry Reid in this November’s Senate elections. Reid has looked dead in the water for a long time, but he has seen a recent surge in the polls, which has been matched by the demise of his most well-funded challenger, Sue Lowden. Lowden has never recovered from her bizarre statement that people should barter with their doctors, and is now expected to lose to tea party favorite, and political novice Sharron Angle. I think Reid would be even money to beat an untested Angle in the fall, despite his unpopularity.

THE HOUSE: The House will deal with suspension bills starting tomorrow, with substantive legislation to come up later in the week. The House will vote on a bill to reform the Federal Housing Administration. That bill would increase the maximum premium to be paid by the Department of Housing and Urban Development to support troubled mortgages. The House also might take up a bill that would authorize new loans to small businesses. I expect both bills to face unanimous Republican opposition. The House still must consider a Senate-passed war funding bill in the next couple of weeks, but it is not yet on the floor schedule.

THE SENATE: The Senate will vote today on a few District Court nominees. Starting tomorrow, they will consider a Republican-sponsored resolution that would strip the EPA of its ability to regulate greenhouse gases. The Supreme Court has mandated that the EPA must establish rules to regulate these gases, but they have been hesitant to do so while Congress considers a comprehensive energy bill. The bill is being brought to the floor under the “Congressional Review Act,” meaning it can not be filibustered. Republicans, though, should not have enough votes to pass this misguided measure. I wish they would focus instead on passing a comprehensive energy bill, instead of actively trying to make things worse.

That’s it for today, we’ll see you for a brief entry tonight!

The Weekly Strike-6/1-6/6

Good evening and welcome to the Weekly Strike, where we preview the week in politics. Congress is out of session, and that's very unfortunate if you are a) unemployed, b) without health insurance or c) a doctor who treats Medicare patients. Because Congress didn't act, all of these people will be facing a pretty tough week. But fear not, at least you can read my blog.

THE WHITE HOUSE: All of the action this week will be at the White House, where President Obama is dealing with quite a myriad of problems. First and foremost is the continuing devastation of the oil spill in the Gulf. After this week's "Top Kill" operation failed, BP and the administration are looking for answers. I think it's about time President Obama take on a larger role. Today, he meets with the head of the newly formed oil spill commission at the White House. Meanwhile, Attorney General Eric Holder is headed down to the Gulf Coast to survey the scene. There are reports that the administration could be considering law suits against BP for malfeasance. I hope, if only for political reasons, that the administration goes down this path.

The tragedy about this situation is that BP has been an utter failure at stopping the spill, yet they are the only ones who have the access and machinery to fix the problem. I think the government needs to come in and take over the operation. This is a great lesson, though, in our economic system. BP gets all the rewards of massive profits by drilling in the gulf, yet the risk is socialized, with the after effects wreaking havoc on a large part of the country. Even if BP accepts full liability, which so far doesn't seem too likely, the economic and environmental damage will be with us for years to come.

The President also must deal with another crisis in the Middle East. This weekend, Israeli forces stopped a Flotilla, which was bringing supplies to Gaza. The Flotilla was full of Turkish and European activists, who apparently set up the high profile confrontation to gain some publicity for their cause. This does NOT excuse the actions of the Israeli Defense Forces, which reacted to a minor provocation with violence, reportedly killing 11 people in the process. President Obama wants to patch up our somewhat strained relationship with Israel, but he needs to come out against this abhorrent behavior forcefully.

RECESS: I'll also be looking this week to see how the Congressional recess goes for members traveling back home. I don't expect any town hall style outbursts, mostly because the health care issue is settled. I do expect some tough questioning for Democratic members, especially from older, white constituents. Democrats have been instructed to highlight the instant benefits of the health care law to seniors. They've also been told to highlight contrasts with their Republican opponents, especially on the economy. If Democrats are to have any success this year (success is defined as not losing a catastrophic number of seats), they will need the help of all candidates in crafting a narrative. The narrative has to highlight how the Democrats brought the economy back from the brink, while the Republicans who drove us into the ditch just want to sit back and blame others. If Democrats try to throw each other on the bus by saying "I stood up to my party and voted against" this or that, they'll fall as one.

That's it for now. See you tonight!

The Weekly Strike-5/24-5/29

Good morning and welcome to the Daily Strike. Lady Strike and I are pretty much all moved in, so I can report back for blog duty.

BUSY WEEK IN CONGRESS: This is going to be a busy week in Congress, and the issues debated will be contentious, and at points, bitterly ideological. Before next week's Memorial Day recess, Congress must deal with two spending bills. The first will fund continuing operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Liberal Democrats, in the House especially, do not want to vote for this (rightly, of course). This means that Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid will need to get some significant Republican support. This could be difficult though, because the administration has requested funding for laid off teachers to be attached to the war spending bill. I'm not entirely sure where the votes would be for both of those items, quite frankly. The bill will start in the United States Senate, where the teacher funding will be debated as an amendment. Sources say that the amendment has no chance of passing. Of COURSE it is ok to funnel billions of dollars a year to never-ending wars, but not ok to prevent massive layoffs to teachers that will destroy this country's future.

There's also the question of whether to pay for the war funding. Most members think it is acceptable to pay for wars through deficit spending, though fiscal hawks like Senator Coburn (R-OK) will try to find ways to pay for the bill. I don't anticipate any of his ideas passing muster with the full Senate, but he could be successful at delaying the process to the end of the week. When all is said and done, I expect the war funding to be approved by both Houses in the Friday/Saturday range.

Before the Senate takes up the war funding bill, they'll vote on some non-binding motions to instruct conferees on the recently passed financial reform measure. We'll have more details on those motions this evening.

The House will have its busiest work week in months, even before they get to the war funding measure. After suspension bills today and tomorrow, the House will take up amendments to a Senate-passed bill that extends expiring tax breaks and unemployment/COBRA benefits through the end of the year. The bill also includes a 5 year "doc fix" that will fix payment rates to Medicare physicians. The bill will probably pass by a very narrow margin, because many House Democrats have deficit-itis and don't want to vote even for crucial safety net measures if it is not paid for. Only part of the bill is paid for, most of it is designated as "emergency spending." I'm fairly certain that every Republican will oppose this measure. If Democrats had any political courage, they would chastise Republicans for cutting off your unemployment insurance during a recession. But I bet most of the conversation this week instead will be about how much this bill adds to the deficit. I hope and pray that the Senate takes up the bill before the end of the week, but I'm afraid it might wait to weigh in until after the Memorial Day recess.

Next up for the House will be the Defense Authorization bill, which will set policies for the Pentagon in Fiscal Year 2011. Isn't there some defense policy that is particularly controversial? Oh yes, the gays! Democrat Patrick Murphy (D-PA) will try to include an amendment to repeal the 1993 Don't Ask, Don't Tell policy when this bill comes up for a vote. I'm not sure whether Murphy, an Iraq war veteran, will have the votes, but I sure hope he does. It would help if the administration was more supportive of the effort to repeal DADT, but instead they've been sending mixed signals.

The House will also try go vote on a stalled bill that authorizes funding for science and math education. The bill has been held up because Republicans have tried to include an unrelated "porn" amendment. If the House is waiting around for the Senate to finish its work, it may even take up the DISCLOSE Act, which would put new regulations on campaign spending. The DISCLOSE Act is a response to this year's Supreme Court decision in Citizens United.

We'll keep you up-to-date on these important pieces of legislation. The House will also swear in its newest member this week. Charles Djou, a Republican, was elected to finish the term of Rep. Neil Abercrombie in Hawaii's 1st District. Djou only got 39% of the vote, but because there was no primary election, he was up against two opponents who split the Democratic vote. There are now 432 members of the House, with vacancies in New York (Massa, the tickler), Georgia (where Nathan Deal is running for Governor) and Indiana (Souder, the philanderer). With Djou's victory, the Republicans now control 177 seats, the Democrats 255.

The President will be keeping an eye on this legislative action, though today he is holding a series of meetings relating to the aftermath of the BP oil spill.

That's it for now, see you tonight!

The Weekly Strike-5/18-5/23

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. Thank you for your indulgence during my vacation. I am well-rested and eager to blog. And I missed a lot.

FINANCIAL REGULATION: The Senate is in the home stretch of its consideration of the Wall Street reform bill. Last night, Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) filed cloture on the bill, meaning a vote to cut off debate will come Wednesday. A vote on final passage could happen by the end of the week. It looks as though there will be more than enough votes to get this bill across the finish line. When all is said and done, I expect the bill to pass with about 65 votes.

Unlike every other major bill considered during the Obama Presidency, the amendment process seems to have made the bill stronger, not weaker. For example, last week, the Senate surprisingly approved an amendment from Senator Durbin (D-IL) to limit fees for ATM cards. The Senate will take up several more amendments before consideration of the bill wraps up. Among the key amendments left is one offered by Senator McCain (R-AZ) and Cantwell (D-WA) that would re-institute Glass-Stegall separation of banks and other financial institutions. I would be pleasantly shocked if that passed. We'll keep you posted on the amendments, but you can get a run down of what we missed last week by checking out the Senate website.

This bill would be a solid first step in reigning in the excesses of our financial system, though it does not do enough. It puts regulatory authority in the same hands of those who oversaw the crisis in 2008, and it does not fundamentally change the shape of our troubled financial sector.

Nevertheless, it's seeming more and more likely that President Obama will have another notch on his belt in the next few weeks.

THE HOUSE: The House has a relatively busy schedule this week as well. Starting yesterday, they began debate on a series of suspension bills. Tomorrow, the House will take up a key Senate-passed measure that extends expiring tax breaks, unemployment insurance, and COBRA coverage through the end of this year. The House is amending the package, but I'm not sure yet what they're changing. It's possible that they've found a way to pay for these extensions, though doing so would be ill-advised in my view.

The House will also complete consideration of the American Competes Reauthorization Act, a bill that provides research and development funding for Math and Science. The bill hit a snag last week when Democrats couldn't beat back a Republican poison-pill amendment dealing with pornography. I really wish rank-and-file Democrats would be more disciplined on these procedural votes.

ELECTION DAY: Today is Election Day in three states, and there are several key races to watch. The only Republican/Democrat contest of the day comes in Pennsylvania's 12th District, where Democrat Mark Critz and Republican Tim Burns are vying to replace the late John Murtha. Polls show the race to be dead even, so we could be in for a long election night. By all measures, Democrats have no business winning this seat in the current political environment. The district is the only one in the country that voted for John Kerry in 2004, and John McCain in 2008. But Critz has proven to be a relatively strong candidate.

There are also huge Senate primaries in three states. In Pennsylvania, incumbent party-switcher Arlen Specter is locked in a tight race with Congressman Joe Sestak for the Democratic Senate nomination. Polls show Sestak surging, but Specter could benefit from large turnout among unions and the ill-advised endorsement from President Obama. If I had to put money on it, I'd say that Sestak pulls it out. I really hope that Specter keeps up his liberal streak even if he loses his primary race.

In Arkansas, incumbent Blanche Lincoln is locked in a tight battle with Lt. Governor Bill Halter for the Democratic nomination. Lincoln is favored mostly due to the incumbency factor, but Halter has a shot if he can get high turnout among the few liberal voters that exist in Arkansas. Lincoln's primary challenge has pushed her to the left over the past few weeks. She authored very strong regulations of derivatives that have somehow made it through the Senate so far unscathed. The Republican nomination to face Lincoln (or Halter) features a large slew of candidates, and is most likely headed for a run-off.

In Kentucky, Democrats will choose between Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo and State Attorney General Jack Conway. Conway seems like a better choice to me; he has more progressive policy views, but Mongiardo has taken a small lead in recent polls. On the Republican side, it looks like Ron Paul's son Rand will destroy his Republican establishment opponent, Secretary of State Trey Grayson.

We will keep you informed of what happens this evening! Leave us some comments.

The Weekly Strike-5/3-5/9

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. I thought this week would be dominated by the fight over financial reform, but a lot of other stories are dominating the news, most notably the oil spill in the gulf coast. Let's get to the week in politics.

THE WHITE HOUSE: Just when the White House wanted to hone in on Wall Street reform, they have been distracted by events beyond their control. The oil spill in the gulf coast is turning into an unmitigated disaster. By the time all is said and done, this could be a bigger spill than the Exxon-Valdez catastrophe in 1989. Some conservatives have tried to suggest that this is Obama's Katrina, which is patently absurd. For one, the lives of millions of Americans aren't under immediate threat. Two, Obama has done a good job coordinating state and local efforts in the gulf region, including close work with potential adversary Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (R).

The White House also had to focus this weekend on the failed terror attempt in Times Square. Explosives found in a car failed to detonate. It doesn't look like this will be a major story, mostly because the suspect appears to be a white guy. The double standards in our society are pretty amazing.

The President's schedule is pretty light to start the week. This morning, he hosts a reception at the Naval Academy for winners of the "Commander in Chief" awards. Later this afternoon, he holds a dinner for the Business Council. The schedule for the remainder of the week is in flux, but I expect him to make one or two appearances on the road.

THE SENATE: Now that Republicans have relented in their obstructionism, the Senate can begin debate on Wall Street reform. Votes on amendments will begin tomorrow. Unlike previous legislation where Democrats wanted to fend off inevitable attempts to make the bill worse, this amendment process may offer progressives some opportunities. Anger at Goldman Sachs after their performance at a Senate hearing last week perhaps has given more momentum to proponents of reform. One particular amendment that might come up, offered by Senators Kaufman (DE) and Brown (OH) would break up the big banks and prevent them from becoming "too big to fail." I'm afraid the Obama administration is opposed to this approach, as is Banking Chairman Dodd (CT). The Big Picture may write more about this amendment, but it would be shameful to see it go down in flames. Not only is it good policy, but it would be very good populist politics.

The other key amendment to look out for is a chance to re-enact the Glass-Stegall Act, which separates banks from other financial institutions. The act was overturned by the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999. I'm not too confident on this amendment going though, simply because of the influence of lobbyists, but I'll do my best to keep my hopes up.

THE HOUSE: After taking up suspension bills today and tomorrow, the House will take up the so-called "Cash for Caulkers" bill. The bill will give rebates to individuals and businesses for retrofitting for energy efficiency. The bill has one Republican cosponsor, so I expect it to pass very easily. Perhaps the Senate can include the bill as part of its comprehensive energy package that it will take up...err...at some point.

That's it for now. Leave some comments!

The Weekly Strike-4/19-4/25

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. I'm still recovering from a brutal hockey game last night, but being the hero blogger that I am, I couldn't possibly forget about you. On to the week in politics...

FINANCIAL REGULATIONS: The next major legislative battle is in full gear. We talked last week about how Obama hasn't really pushed very hard on enacting sweeping Wall Street reform. That seemingly has changed significantly. In the last week, President Obama personally called out Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell for first meeting secretly with Wall Street bankers, and then lying about the contents of the bill to the American public. He also issued a veto threat if the bill did not contain strong enough regulation of derivatives. Boosted by government charges against Goldman Sachs on Friday, the President and his allies believe they are positioned well to win this fight.

First things first, though. In order for the Senate to even consider the bill, it needs 60 votes. Though a few Democrats have problems with parts of the bill, I don't think any of them would object to at least considering the measure. That leaves Democrats in need of one Republican vote. Minority Leader McConnell tried to get every Republican to sign on to a letter saying they would filibuster the bill if the Democrats didn't come to the negotiating table. After Senator Collins (ME) refused to sign on, he changed the letter to make the threat not quite as strong. Today, Collins meets with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, who hopes to persuade her that this bill is necessary to avoid a repeat of the 2008 economic collapse.

If indeed Democrats do not have the votes to proceed, they'll be forced to make some concessions. It seems like the White House is already willing to drop some key provisions. Included in the Dodd bill is a provision that creates a $50 billion fund, paid for by Wall Street firms, to help wind down companies that are "too big to fail." Republicans falsely contend that this constitutes a taxpayer bailout. Obama has asked Senate leaders to take the provision out of the bill. I'm not sure how I feel about this policy-wise. But again, it is not politically smart to make any concessions until you have secured votes. I thought we learned that lesson with health care.

Democratic leaders hope to bring a motion to proceed to the bill to the floor as soon as Wednesday, and as late as Friday. We'll keep you posted. It's also possible that President Obama goes on the road to pitch the plan. I think he desperately needs to connect the dots as to how these regulations will protect the American people from losing their hard-earned money.

THE WHITE HOUSE: The President has a somewhat quiet start to his week. He will hold a meeting this morning with General Scott Gration, the administration's envoy to Sudan. The genocide in Darfur certainly has gotten a disproportionately small amount of attention since Obama took office, don't you think?

The President then flies to California where he will hold a fundraiser for Senator Barbara Boxer, who is in a tough reelection fight this year. No word yet on the rest of the week's schedule.

THE SENATE: Before the Senate gets to financial reform, they will vote on a series of previously stalled executive nominations. Majority Leader Reid has filed cloture on on 5 Presidential nominations, including two Appeals Court judges. The first vote will be a vote to end debate on the nomination of Lael Brainerd to be the Under Secretary of the Treasury. It is pretty pathetic that during a financial crisis, key positions at the Treasury remain unfilled.

THE HOUSE: The House will come into session tomorrow, and they will spend a couple of days dealing with suspension bills. The House will also vote on a motion to go to conference on a bill to impose sanctions on Iran. On Thursday, the House will take up a long-stalled bill that would give voting rights to the District of Columbia. The bill also would temporarily give a House seat to Utah, so that an obvious Democratic seat would be offset by a safe Republican seat. The bill passed both the House and Senate last year. However, the Senate included a provision that would strike down most of D.C's restrictive gun laws. Democrats did not want to swallow this compromise, but it appears as if DC interests are willing to sacrifice their gun laws for official representation in Congress.

I'm not entirely sure whether the House will take up the Senate-passed bill verbatim, or whether they will be voting on a brand new version of the measure. We'll keep you posted.

That's it for now. See you tonight, and leave some comments!

The Weekly Strike-4/12-4/18

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. Congress is back and session, and pretty much every world leader is in town, so there is much to discuss.

THE WHITE HOUSE: It seems like everything has been nuclear lately for this White House. First, they release their new policy on nuclear weapons. Then, they sign the START treaty with Russia. Starting today, the President hosts a summit among world leaders to discuss how to prevent nuclear weapons getting into the hands of terrorists. This is an important topic, and it is arguably the biggest threat to our national security. I don't, however, see much coming out of this summit. The biggest news potentially could be how much the meeting snarls traffic around here.

With so much focus on international affairs over the past couple of weeks, and continuing through this week, the President has halted all of his momentum on the domestic agenda. After his victory on health care, we were looking to see a new, invigorated President ready to push hard on the next big items, like financial regulatory reform and jobs. He could have started a drum beat for a new post-health care narrative: it's us vs. Republicans and the powerful special interests. We delivered for you on health reform, now let's deliver for you again!

Instead, the President has been almost completely silent on these issues. He barely talked about jobs, and I don't think he said one word in support of financial regulation. As a result, his political momentum from health care has completely stalled. In fact, his numbers in the tracking polls reflect this blunted momentum. The President needs to remember that with the clock running out on strong Democratic majorities, any idle time is wasted time. I didn't admire President Bush for much, but he was able to act like pending items on his agenda (Iraq War, anyone?) were the most important thing in the world and had to get done immediately. Obama needs to get that drum beat going immediately. Yes, I understand his schedule is busy, but if he can't do it himself, he needs to get some of his surrogates out there, like Vice President Biden.

This White House has not been good at creating a narrative and pounding it home day after day. It is important to change this dynamic now, not just because of political necessity, but because of the magnitude of our country's problems.

THE SENATE: Speaking of our country's problems, the Senate has a chance to stop the bleeding on one of the biggest, unemployment. Before the last recess began, Republican Senators objected to passing an extension of unemployment and COBRA benefits. As a result, some of these benefits ran out last week. At 5:30pm today, the Senate will vote to cut off debate on this extension. Democrats need at least one Republican vote to advance the bill. So far, Republicans have seemed pretty united in their misguided view that any extension of these benefits must be accompanied by spending cuts elsewhere. Of course, the most stimulative thing we could do for our economy would be to give money to people (the unemployed) who would spend it immediately.

It's possible that when the Senate finishes the extenders bill, that it starts consideration of the financial reform measure.

THE HOUSE: The House comes back into session tomorrow, but it should have a pretty slow week. It will be all suspensions Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday, the House takes up a bill dealing with clean estuaries. Hopefully, this will allow me to swim in the San Francisco Bay.

That's it for now, see you tonight!

The Weekly Strike-4/5-4/11

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. Congress is out of session for another weeks, so things will remain relatively quiet around. But there is still SOME stuff to talk about. Let's get to it.

THE WHITE HOUSE: The week starts out on a very light note for President Obama. This morning, the President hosts the traditional White House Easter Egg hunt. Following that, the President travels to Nationals Park to throw out the first pitch on Opening Day. I think the fans at Nationals Park are likely to give the President a warm welcome. He remains very popular around here, even if his popularity has waned elsewhere.

The President hasn't released his schedule for the rest of the week, but you can be sure he'll start turning his attention to a couple of looming battles. Obama has told Congressional leaders that he wants a financial reform package on his desk by Memorial Day. Democrats would be very smart to get this done as soon as possible. The politics of the issue is very favorable if it can be framed correctly: you're either on the side of the consumers or the banks.

Key to this bill will be the scope of the newly formed Consumer Protection Agency. The House-passed bill contains an independent CPA, while the Senate proposal would house the CPA within the Federal Reserve. President Obama should campaign hard to make the agency independent, so it can conduct proper oversight of the financial sector and prevent a collapse similar to the one that happened in late 2008.

The Big Picture and I have talked about this extensively, and we've agreed that President Obama should translate his momentum from the health care victory into a full on campaign for financial regulation reform. Not only is the policy badly needed, but it would set up a perfect narrative for the midterm elections. The problem, of course, will be facing united Republican opposition, combined with many Democrats who are fully owned subsidiaries of the industry.

The other looming battle is the possibility of another Supreme Court vacancy. Justice John Paul Stevens, a Gerald Ford appointee who has become a stalwart liberal, is contemplating whether to retire. If I were a betting man, I would guess that he'll leave this year. He has said openly that he wants President Obama to choose his successor. It would make sense to let Obama nominate a successor while he still has 59 seats in the Senate. Such a battle might be a distraction from other legislative endeavors, but it will still be critically important. President Obama must appoint a strong liberal to protect Stevens' legacy and maintain a delicate balance in a closely-divided court. We'll cross this bridge when we get there, but my early choice would be Appellate Judge Diane Wood of Illinois. She is a friend of Obama's, and a liberal intellectual heavyweight.

UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS: If you have been collecting unemployment benefits during this painful recession, you may be losing your benefits today, thanks to a Republican filibuster led by Senator Tom Coburn (OK). Coburn insisted that an extension in benefits be paid for, and refused to allow a vote before the Spring recess. Majority Leader Reid (NV) plans to bring up and pass an extension next Monday when the Senate resumes its work, but for now, millions of people will suffer because Republicans have chosen to make an ideological point. Yet another opportunity for Democrats to ask voters "which side are the Republicans on?"

That's it for now. Because it's a slow week, and it's baseball's opening day, and Mother Strike is in town, we'll be skipping tonight's entry. We'll see you tomorrow.

The Weekly Strike-3/29-4/4

Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. For those of you Jewish readers, Happy Pesach! For those who aren't Jewish, nobody's perfect.

NORMALCY: The amazing thing about the upcoming week in politics is how devoid it will be of drama. Health care has passed. The reconciliation package of fixes have passed. Student loan reform has passed. Congress has skipped town. There are no tea-partiers in the streets of Washington. There is a welcome sense of quiet around here. But nevertheless, there is enough going on to merit an entry.

AFGHANISTAN: After last week's historic victories, President Obama jetted off on a secret trip to Afghanistan over the weekend. He met with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and put pressure on him to bring stability to his government in his second term. The success of the President's mission in Afghanistan depends largely on whether Karzai can make his government more appealing to the Afghan people than the Taliban alternative. The President also met with U.S. troops, where he thanked them for their dedication and sacrifice.

With all of the domestic battles brewing in the past couple of months, there has been very little focus on Afghanistan. Part of the reason is that the military has made significant gains. However, if there isn't adequate civilian progress, this could still be a perilous endeavor for the President.

THE WHITE HOUSE: The President has returned from his trip, and faces a very busy week ahead of him. Today, the President participates in a credentialing ceremony for foreign ambassadors. He then hosts a Passover Seder at the White House. The Strike wishes very much that he was invited.

Tomorrow, the President will sign the Reconciliation Act of 2010 at the White House. Because health care already got some pomp and circumstance last week, I expect the President this week to be more geared towards the student loan reform measure that got included in the reconciliation package. The President will also go on the road this week to tout his accomplishments. He will make stops in Maine and North Carolina.

CONGRESS: Congress, after its most productive session in a long, long time, has a well-deserved two week recess. Over the weekend, the President used the occasion to make 15 recess appointments, including one to liberal hero Craig Becker at the National Labor Relations Board. The President's nominees have been held up consistently over the past year due to unprecedented GOP obstructionism. I'm glad the President took advantage of this opportunity.

Congress did skip town without passing an extension of unemployment and COBRA benefits. Republicans did not allow a vote on these extensions, because they were not paid for. As a result of this politicking, millions of Americans will lose benefits next Monday, the 5th. Democrats plan to pass another extension when Congress comes back on April 12th, and they will make the extension retroactive, so people will still get benefits they would have accrued over the week of April 5th.

That's it for now, we'll see you tonight!

The Weekly Strike-3/15-3/21

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. Woo boy, it's going to be a heck of a week. We might, just might, have health care reform by the end of your week. Hold on to your hats, but don't hold your breath.

HEALTH CARE: This it it. Maybe. House Democrats are going to try and pass the Senate health care bill with a separate package of fixes by the end of the week. On Sunday, it's possible that we will have achieved a historic victory, and it's also possible that we'll be wanting to punch ourselves in the face. Have I raised the stakes enough?

The procedural dance about to be performed is interesting to me, so I'll go through it. But the bottom line is that Democrats need to line up 216 votes this week. Right now, I would guess they are a bit short, with many members still undecided. None of the 37 Democrats who voted no on the original health care bill are willing to admit that they'll vote yes this time around, but I do expect some of them to switch over at the last minute.At this point, I have absolutely zero tolerance for any Democratic member, from the left or right, who doesn't support this bill. It's not perfect, but it would be a monumental achievement. 31 million more Americans would be covered, we would create a system of near-universal coverage, we would reduce the deficit and we would bring down costs in the long run. Any member who votes against this bill not only bears the responsibility of killing the biggest Democratic priority of the past half century, they also will bear the burden of the lives lost as a result of this bill not passing.

So here's how it will go down this week. When referring to the reconciliation bill, I'm talking about the package of "fixes" to the Senate bill.

Today, the House Budget Committee will meet to "mark up" the reconciliation bill. This is basically a purely procedural step. All reconciliation bills must go through the budget committees. The bill they're marking up won't even be the actual bill, strangely enough. All reconciliation bills must be reported by October 15th. Obviously, this package has only been drafted in the past week or so. Therefore, they are using a former discarded House health care bill as a "shell" that they will amend with the new package. Got it?

After the bill goes through the budget committee, it will head to its most crucial destination: the vaunted House Rules Committee. Chairwoman Louise Slaughter (D-NY) will decide the terms of debate for the bill. The leadership is considering many options. The most obvious option would be to hold separate votes on the Senate bill and the reconciliation bill. Some members, however, don't want to vote directly on the Senate bill, because they don't want to be on record supporting some of its most popular elements. Democrats are considering a rule that would deem the Senate bill passed if the reconciliation bill passed. I'm not sure what the difference is, really. You think the average voter really pays attention to this stuff? They want to know: did my Rep. vote for health care or not? Everything else doesn't matter. The Rules Committee will also be the last chance to make changes to the bill. Democrats are expected to insert an unrelated student loan measure into the reconciliation package.

By Friday or Saturday, the bill will come to the House floor in some form. I'm pretty certain that once the bill is on the floor, members will not have a chance to amend it. A final vote would occur sometime Saturday most likely. The Senate bill would go directly to the President for his signature. The reconciliation package will go to the Senate, where they will begin an arduous debate as soon as possible. Debate on reconciliation is limited in the Senate, meaning that the bill does not need 60 votes to cut off debate. Republicans are expected to slow down the process by offering a myriad of amendments. Yet another reason why their talk about Democrats abusing the legislative process is extremely misguided.

So here we are. This will be a monumental week for Speaker Pelosi and President Obama. Are their arm twisting skills, their combination of threats and incentives, and their powers of political persuasion strong enough? I sure hope so. The President will be taking a very active role in the health care debate in the coming week. Today, he will hold a rally for reform in Strongsville, OH. He has also pushed back a trip to Asia to make sure health reform passes. He's putting a lot on the line for this, with good reason.

THE SENATE: As if this week wasn't busy enough, the Senate will have its hands full with all different sorts of things. This morning, Senator Dodd (D-CT) is expected to release his version of a financial regulation bill. Bipartisan talks with Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) broke down last week, so Dodd is determined to move on his own. The bill does not contain an independent consumer protection agency like the House bill does. Instead, if gives the Federal Reserve a broader role in consumer protection. This is a disappointment for liberals, but probably not enough of a disappointment for them to oppose the bill. Dodd will begin hearings on his bill in the next couple of weeks. Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) wants to get the bill done by Memorial Day.

The Senate this afternoon will vote to cut off debate on the final version of that $15 billion jobs bill, made up mostly of tax cuts for companies that hire new workers. The bill passed the Senate a few weeks back, but has since been amended by the House. I think the bill should be in the President's hand shortly. It will be a minor legislative accomplishment that probably won't lead to many jobs, but at least it's something. The Senate will then move to back to a bill authorizing programs for the Federal Aviation Administration.

THE HOUSE: Prior to the big health care showdown at the end of the week, the House will mostly be dealing with suspension bills. It is also possible that the House considers the Senate-passed bill of various tax-extenders and an extension of unemployment and COBRA benefits.

That's it for now, we'll be back tonight. It's going to be a long week.

The Weekly Strike-3/8-3/14

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. The weather is beautiful on the East Coast, Spring is in the air, and there is at least some small reason to be hopeful in the world of politics.

HEALTH CARE: There are new signs of hope in the ongoing health care saga, though I've learned over the past year never to get my hopes up too much. In the Senate, it appears as if Harry Reid (D-NV) has locked down the 50 votes needed to pass a package of fixes to the main health care bill via reconciliation. Even moderate rascals like Senators Nelson (NE) and Landrieu (LA) don't seem too opposed to the reconciliation idea. Amazingly, Harry Reid may actually have some votes to spare when this is all said and done. Senate Democrats need to produce a piece of paper signed by 50 Democrats that they will support the reconciliation bill. If they do that, nervous House members will know that their difficult votes in the coming weeks won't go to waste.

Over in the House, there are some signs that some of the Democrats who voted no on the original health bill may cross over to the yes side. The biggest block of potential switchers are the 5 or 6 previous "no" votes who have since announced their retirements. With nothing to lose this election season, they may be willing to do the right thing. A couple of other moderate Democrats that voted no on the original bill, like Reps. Boccieri (OH) and Altmire (PA), seemed to indicate over the weekend that they would be willing to support the Senate bill as long as it comes with the package of fixes. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) will need to pick up some previous "no" votes to push the bill over the finish line. Since the vote in November, 2 yes votes have resigned, and another passed away. Other members who previously voted yes may switch their votes to "no" if there isn't strict anti-abortion language in the bill.

The President will be doing his part this week to move the ball forward. Today, he will hold a rally in a suburb outside Pennsylvania, where he will reignite his sales pitch. He has a powerful new argument to make today. Investment firm Goldman Sachs has recently been seen encouraging investors to buy stock in health insurance companies because prices are skyrocketing and competition is decreasing. This seems like a pretty powerful argument for comprehensive reform, though it might ring hollow coming from an administration full of former Goldman Sachs brass. Later this week, he will be traveling to St. Louis, MO to give a similar speech.

This effort is all geared towards securing passage of health reform, at least in the House, by March 18th. To do this, Democrats will need a cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office this week, which in turn means that they will have to find some general consensus among 216 members in the next few days. We'll keep you posted.

THE HOUSE: The House this week has a relatively light schedule. Tomorrow and Wednesday, the House will take up a series of suspension bills. On Thursday, the House will take up a measure offered by Rep. Kucinich (D-OH) that would require all troops to be removed from Afghanistan by the end of this year. The bill has no chance of passing, but the Democratic leadership wants to give anti-war members a chance to voice their concerns with President Obama's war strategy. My guess is that a loose coalition of about 100 Democrats and 10 or so Republicans vote for the measure.

The House will also vote on an impeachment resolution on G. Thomas Porteous, an Alabama District Judge who has been accused of high crimes and misdemeanors as a result of corruption charges.

THE SENATE: The Senate this week will be attempting to take action on two pieces of the so-called jobs agenda. By Tuesday, the Senate should pass a bill that extends unemployment benefits, COBRA benefits and various expiring tax provisions through the end of this year. Despite some Republican opposition, I don't think the bill should have any trouble passing. It might have trouble passing promptly if Republicans decide to pursue more reckless procedural delays.

The Senate is also expected to give final approval to the first jobs bill, the $15 billion package that passed the House last week. This bill originated in the Senate, but since the House made some changes to it last week (more money for summer jobs programs and some spending offsets), the Senate will have to take up the revised version. I expect them to do so by week's end.

That's it for now. We'll see you this evening! Please leave comments!

The Weekly Strike-3/1-3/7

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. Please excuse my negligence on Friday night. I had just ended a long car trip. What did I miss?

-The Senate is being held hostage by a one Jim Bunning (R-KY). Democrats tried to pass an extension of unemployment and COBRA benefits by unanimous consent, but Bunning repeatedly objected. Inexplicably, Democrats basically gave up their fight midday, and thus, unemployment benefits will expire for millions of Americans this morning. Democrats will be forced to go through the arduous process of breaking cloture and scheduling a vote on the bill, which will hopefully happen by the end of the week.

-The House passed a bill authorizing intelligence programs by a vote of 235-168. Democrats tried to sneak in a provision that would allow for the prosecution of torture, but they were forced to remove it when confronted by lawmakers of both parties, and unfortunately, the White House. 9 liberal Democrats voted against the bill, along with all but one House Republican. Apparently, there wasn't enough pro-torture stuff in there.

Now, we return to the present.

THE WHITE HOUSE: The President's week begins this morning with a speech to the U.S. Chamber of Conference about education. The speech relates to the " America's Promise Alliance" founded by Colin and Alma Powell. The President spends the rest of the day meeting with various cabinet secretaries.

On Wednesday, the President will announce his proposed way forward on health care reform. If I were a betting man, I would guess that he would endorse the idea of the House passing the Senate bill, followed by a package of fixes to be passed via reconciliation. Democrats face challenges mustering up votes for this proposal in both chambers, though for once the effort in the House seems a bit tougher. In the Senate, since the package of fixes will be a reconciliation bill, Democrats can afford to lose 9 of their own members if Vice President Biden breaks a tie. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has to cope with a large portion of her caucus that is nervous about reelection prospects, and that for some reason thinks voting against health care will save their political careers. The original House bill passed 220-215. Since that time, three House members have retired (2 Democrats and 1 Republican, which we'll discuss below), and John Murtha passed away. Therefore, Pelosi needs 216 votes to round up a majority. We'll be closely following the Speaker's efforts to whip her members.

THE HOUSE: Speaking of the House, they have a pretty busy week on tap. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the House will vote on a series of suspension bills. On Thursday, the House will consider a bill to "prevent and reduce the use of physical restraint and seclusion in schools, and for other purposes." The bill would impose minimum federal standards to protect public school children from being physically restrained or put in seclusion by school personnel. Sounds like a good idea to me. There is an exception written into the bill if there is a situation that presents an imminent danger. I imagine this would be a Columbine-like incident that would necessitate students being quarantined in classrooms.

The House is also likely to pass the Senate's modest $15 billion jobs bill. Liberal Democrats have threatened to withhold their support because they don't think the bill is big enough. I agree that the bill isn't big enough, but they must pass this bill to get the jobs agenda rolling. The bill passed the Senate last week with strong bipartisan support.

THE SENATE: The Senate will begin consideration of a package of tax-break extenders that will include the aforementioned extensions of unemployment and COBRA benefits. No votes are scheduled on the bill, but I expect something to be passed by midweek. The House would probably approve these extensions late Thursday and send the bill to the President.

The Senate does have a vote scheduled tomorrow on the nomination of Barbara Keenan to be a U.S. Circuit Court Judge. I don't know anything about her, which leads me to believe that her nomination shouldn't be terribly controversial.

ELECTION UPDATES: As we hinted above, another member of Congress is stepping down in the middle of his term. Rep. Nathan Deal (R-GA) is retiring this week to focus on his run for Governor. Democratic Reps. Abercrombie (HI) and Wexler (FL) have already stepped down to pursue other ventures. With John Murtha's death, that leaves four vacancies in the House that must be filled through a special election. I expect the only competitive race would be for Murtha's seat, a swing district in Pennsylvania.

Also over the weekend, another Republican announced his retirement. This time, it was John Linder (GA). Overall, 20 Republicans are retiring, as opposed to just 15 Democrats. This seems pretty counter-intuitive given the dire predictions for Democrats this fall.

On the Senate side, this morning Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter announced that he will challenge incumbent Blanche Lincoln in the primary. This is great news for Washington Democrats. So far, Lincoln has only been challenged on the far-right. She has been forced to take more conservative positions on issues. Now she'll be getting pressure from both the left and the right. I currently rate Lincoln's prospects for reelection very low. (See rankings on the right side of your screen).

That's it for this morning. Please leave us some comments!

The Weekly Strike-2/22-2/28

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. The political world really heats up this week after last week's Congressional recess and the previous week's snowstorms. And lucky for you, I'm feeling extra patriotic after the U.S. win over Canada in Olympic hockey last night.

HEALTH CARE: There seem to have been many "last chances" for health reform over the last year. This week might actually be the last chance to get something done. Later today, the President will unveil a proposal that will bridge the differences between the House and Senate bills and lay the path forward for health reform to be completed. I assume that the new bill will be a reconciliation bill. This would enable the House to pass the previously approved Senate bill, while both chambers enacted the President's recommended changes through new reconciliation legislation. I'm not entirely sure that the White House isn't proposing a new bill altogether. We'll have the full details in this evening's entry.

The new measure will contain a couple of key new provisions. The President will propose a new oversight board that will have the power to review and block premium increases by private insurers, like the one Anthem initiated last week in California. The bill will also include a Republican proposal to crack down on waste, fraud and abuse. This will not bring any Republicans into the fold, but it might ease the concerns of some Democrats that the White House isn't reaching out to the other side of the aisle. In addition, the White House proposal will eliminate the special deals that marred the final Senate bill, like Ben Nelson's infamous "Cornhusker Kickback." Eliminating these items will allow President Obama and the Democrats to say "we listened" to the voters in Massachusetts and elsewhere just as they pass a bill pretty similar to what has already passed both chambers.

The President is making this proposal in advance of Thursday's bipartisan health summit at the White House. The summit is completely for show. The President, again, is reaching out to the GOP not because he think he can get their votes, but because he thinks it will help him secure Democratic votes. For what it's worth, Majority Leader Reid thinks that this health summit will help the health care bill pass within 60 days.

I am encouraged for the first time in weeks about health reform. It seems like with the passage of time, and with a few good innovative ideas, the White House can help erase some of the ugliness that led to Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts. We'll see if it works out.

THE WHITE HOUSE: The President has a busy schedule beyond health care this week. Today, he will address the National Governor's Association. In the speech, the President will lay out a new initiative to create “new, state-of-the art assessments aligned to college and career-ready standards.” The initiative will be funded with $350 million of stimulus money. This proposal is part of the President's new found focus on education. He is looking this year to reauthorize George W. Bush's No Child Left Behind legislation, while revamping curriculum requirements for math and reading.

If I were a governor of either party, I would be focusing my energy on getting new stimulus/jobs money for state and local governments. Because of mandated balanced budgets in many states, governors have been forced to make painful cuts, which has caused massive job losses.

The President later has meetings with California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), and cabinet Secretaries Hilda Solis (Labor) and Tom Vilsack (agriculture).


THE SENATE: Speaking of jobs, the Senate will take a key test vote tonight on whether to proceed to Majority Leader Reid's scaled-back $15 billion jobs legislation. As we've talked about before, the legislation includes a payroll tax holiday for small businesses that hire new workers, a reauthorization of highway funds, bonds for state and local governments, and other small business tax breaks. Because of the illness of Senator Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), Reid will need at least two Republicans to vote for the bill in order for it to move forward. No Republicans have formally committed to advancing the bill, though some, including Scott Brown, have hinted that they might let the bill proceed. Republicans are still angry at Reid for abandoning a bipartisan Senate Finance Committee jobs bill that included a whole bunch of Republican goodies.

If Reid can round up 60 votes to advance the bill, I expect the bill to be debated for a couple of days before a vote on final passage. After the Senate passes this bill, I wouldn't be surprised to see the House approve it quickly and send it along to President Obama. Reid wants to move next to a bill that extends unemployment benefits and COBRA health benefits. He hopes to start consideration of that bill this week.

THE HOUSE: The House gets back to work this week with a lot left on its plate after snow canceled business two weeks ago. The House will vote on suspension bills today and tomorrow. On Wednesday, the House will consider legislation to reorganize the Native Hawaiian Government (whatever that means). On Thursday, the House will vote on a bill that removes the health insurance industry's anti-trust status. As we've talked about before, this would do little to help lower health care costs, but it is always good politically to vote against the interest of the health insurance industry. The House will also vote on a bill to authorize intelligence programs.

We'll keep you up to date on Congress' happenings throughout the week.

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The Weekly Strike-2/15-2/21

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike where we preview the week in politics. With unemployment still hovering around 10%, with health care hanging in the balance, and with the rest of Obama's legislative agenda seemingly on the back burner, Congress will be taking the week off. That means there is much less for me to write about. That's a good thing, because I happen to enjoy the Winter Olympics, unlike The Big Picture, who couldn't care less. Maybe he can write an entry this week.

THE WHITE HOUSE: Remember back in December how we identified three major issues that would dominate the President's plate that month? Those issues were jobs, health care and Afghanistan. It turns out, we've made very little progress on any of those issues, but each of them is now back in the forefront.

The White House has its eye on a Senate vote next Monday to limit debate on a scaled down jobs package. Last week, Majority Leader Reid put the breaks on a Senate Finance Committee compromise jobs bill that had bipartisan support. Reid correctly believed that the compromise legislation had too many legislative goodies to attract Republicans, like a permanent cut in the estate and gift taxes. The scaled down bill is far too minuscule to have any real impact on the jobs situation. The bill consists of a payroll tax holiday for small businesses that hire new workers, increased funding for infrastructure bonds, and an extension of the highway bill. The White House really needs the bill to pass though, just so they can get a little momentum for a broader jobs agenda. The question is whether Democrats can get that necessary 1 Republican to advance the bill. It is possible that by pulling the rug from under the Finance Committee negotiations, Leader Reid has angered the Republican conference enough that they won't support a bill full of Republican-friendly provisions. That, and the fact that Republicans want good legislation to fail to help their own political cause, make me think that Monday's vote could be dangerously close. The White House might need to twist some arms during this week's recess to make it happen.

On the health care front, the White House is preparing for a February 25th bipartisan summit at the White House. The meeting is ostensibly to see if there can be any sort of bipartisan breakthrough. That's not going to happen. Republicans are saying that they'll only be active participants if Democrats scrap the current bills. The best thing that can come out of this summit is that nervous Democrats can tell their constituents that they tried to be bipartisan and transparent, but the Republicans were unwilling to come to the table. This argument didn't exactly work too well after the Senate Finance Committee's "bipartisan" effort broke down. I'm not sure it will work so well after next week's summit. I'm still of the belief that Congress needs to get over itself and "pass the damn bill." When you hear stories about how Anthem Blue Cross in California is about to hike insurance rates by 39%, we're reminded about how this is not a game. This bill is about saving lives. It's time that the House pass the Senate bill, and that both chambers pass fixes through the reconciliation process.

As for Afghanistan, the U.S. has launched its first major offensive on the Taliban since Obama's troop escalation came into effect. The U.S., with its NATO allies, is currently launching an air and ground assault on Marja, a Taliban stronghold. I don't know enough about this to know whether the offensive will be effective, so I'll just say a couple of things. One, at the very least we are embarking on this offensive with a reasonably large group of NATO allies. And two, I hope this isn't a case of whack-a-mole, where we continue to attack Taliban strongholds, and the Taliban just moves somewhere else.

ELECTIONS UPDATE: After we signed off last Thursday, we learned that Rhode Island Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D), son of Ted, is retiring. With his retirement, it is likely that there will be no members of the Kennedy clan in the 112th Congress. I find this deeply depressing. Patrick Kennedy has had trouble with alcohol abuse, and his time in rehab over the past couple of years has made him less of an effective Congressman. I expect his district to stay in Democratic hands, though with the current national environment the way it is, I wouldn't be surprised to see Republicans competitive.

That's it for now. It's a holiday today, so we're not expecting much news. Therefore, we'll skip tonight's entry and see you all tomorrow.

The Weekly Strike-2/8-2/14

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. DC is still digging out from its historic snowstorm, so politics has been pushed to the back burner for a couple of days. It looks like we might get 10+ more inches of snow on top of the two feet we got over the weekend. 1 day work week anyone?

THE WHITE HOUSE: The President appears to have a new strategy for health reform. Under increasing pressure from members of his own party to move the ball forward, the President has invited members of both parties to a summit at the White House on February 25th. He will be
feeding cat nip to the media by televising the event. The thought is, if Obama can go toe to toe with his political foes, he can a) say he made one last bipartisan outreach and b) put in a performance on par with his "question time" event with the House GOP last month. GOP leaders praised the President's move, but basically indicated that he would have to scrap the current plans for Republicans to get involved at all. I don't think President Obama is proposing this meeting with any intention of locking up Republican votes. He is doing this to re-frame the debate, to let lawmakers air their grievances in public, and to buy time while House and Senate Democrats come up with a legislative endgame. I'll reserve judgment on this strategy until I see that it lights a fire under reticent Congressional Democrats. I have the same feelings I had since the day Scott Brown ended the Democrats 60-vote majority: the House needs to pass the Senate bill, and both chambers need to approve changes via reconciliation. Get it done!

There is not much on the President's public schedule this week, and things in the District are still very uncertain because of the weather. It's still unclear whether the Federal Government will be open before Friday. Wow.

THE HOUSE: We got some sad news today, Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. John Murtha has passed away at the age of 77. Murtha was a Marine veteran who became a hero to the anti-war left when he announced firm opposition to the Iraq War in 2005, before it became politically popular. Murtha also lost a long shot bid to become House Majority Leader after the Democrats retook the House in 2006. He is a longtime friend and ally of House Speaker Pelosi. Murtha has been criticized in the past for steering money to his district from his perch atop the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, but he was a good man who cared about the middle-class people in his district. He will be missed.

And yes, we must pivot into a crass examination of the political ramifications of Murtha's death. Murtha's successor will be chosen in a special election, likely to take place in May of this year. Murtha's district is a swing district, in fact, it is the only district in the country that went for John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008. I would give the Republicans an early edge based on the district's trends and the current political environment.

The House gavels in tomorrow for a reasonably busy week. After dealing with suspensions tomorrow and Wednesday, the House will take up two important bills. First, the House will vote on an Intelligence Authorization bill, which will set policies and procedures for intelligence agencies in 2010. I expect some politically-motivated amendments on both sides, which should make things interesting. The House will then take up a bill to remove the anti-trust exemption enjoyed by insurance companies. The House included this bill as a provision in its health reform legislation, but Democratic leaders thought it might be a good idea to gain some momentum by passing the popular parts of the big bill in smaller chunks. Policy experts don't think that removing this anti-trust exemption would do much to bring down the cost of insurance. However, it's never a bad idea politically to battle the insurance companies, especially since we've been trying to make them a villain for more than a year now.

THE SENATE: The Senate is an absolute mess right now. Late last week, Republican Senator Richard Shelby announced that he has put a hold on all of Obama's nominees so that he can get some pork to his home state of Alabama. This is absolutely ludicrous. Our government is deeply understaffed. Some of these nominees are not only qualified, but have high bipartisan support. But with Shelby's hold, the nominees would have to go through cloture votes, a process that can take days. President Obama may have to play hardball here and make some recess appointments.

Two of these appointments will be voted on this week, when the Senate returns tomorrow evening. The first is the nomination of Joseph Greenway to be a Judge on the Third Circuit. The second is a vote on Craig Becker to be a member of the National Labor Relations Board. I expect Greenway to be confirmed relatively easily. Becker has drawn some controversy since he is (gasp!) somewhat pro-worker, and cares about allowing unions to organize. The Democrats will need at least one Republican vote to move his nomination forward, and I'm not sure they have it at this time.

The Senate was supposed to take up some sort of jobs bill before it goes out of town for the President's day recess. The likeliest scenario was a vote on a tax credit for small businesses that hire new workers. The Democrats have yet to lock down Republican votes for a proposal that is almost uniquely Republican. We'll see if they can come up with some sort of agreement by the end of the week. This is the supposed to be the first of many jobs bills to be voted on in the coming weeks as Democrats turn their attention to the economy. The jobs agenda can only move as fast as the United States Senate, which makes your average snail look like Roger Bannister.

That's it for now. Because the snow storm seems to be changing the whole rhythm of my life, this will count as both the Weekly Strike and today's Daily Strike. We'll bring you another Daily Strike tomorrow evening. Take care!