Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. Exactly one year ago today, The Big Picture, his friend, Lady Strike, and I braved frigid temperatures on the national mall to watch President Obama's historic inauguration. At that point, we thought that Obama could do no wrong. We thought he would usher in a new era of liberal governance with huge Democratic majorities. Not to pour it on too much, but boy times have changed!
MA-SEN: Last night's loss really, really hurt. It was indeed a stomach punch, a death blow, whatever you want to call it. Perhaps even more disturbing than Brown's victory has been the Democratic party's reaction to it. Even before the polls closed, Democrats had formed a circular firing squad. The Coakley campaign blamed the national party, the national party blamed the Coakley campaign, etc. Every Democratic operative was more concerned about saving their own hide than they were about winning the race. After the election, liberals like Barney Frank (MA) and Anthony Weiner (NY) said on national TV that health care reform might be dead. Senate Democrats like Evan Bayh (IN), Jim Webb (VA) and Dianne Feinstein (CA) basically said that health care might need to wait until another day. The Democrat's sense of panic and despair lead me to believe that they think yesterday's message was: don't do anything!
I don't think that was the lesson of last night. I do think there were many lessons from last night, that all Democrats need to heed quickly.
1. Democrats must remember why they're Democrats. We are the party of the people. We are the party that fights for the little guy against the powerful. Republican Scott Brown ran as an "average Joe" against the big bad guys: political machines, corruption, big government. Democrats both locally and nationally did absolutely nothing to shed the "elitist" label. Obama had to continue the Bush bailouts, I understand that. But the Democrats did not have to cut secret deals with Pharmaceutical companies and the AMA to pass health reform. They didn't have to water down a credit card bill because lobbyists told them to. They didn't have to abandon the idea of a Consumer Protection Agency. The common thread here is that Democrats too often have been perceived as a in bed with powerful special interests. For a party that supposedly wants the government to be more trusted, they are certainly not helping themselves. Republicans will also be reactionary anti-government. Their anti-government sentiment is only an effective political weapon when the government is not making people's lives better.
2. You can't take voters for granted. Putting aside the national implications, Martha Coakley's loss is a lesson to any political candidate: never assume you are going to win an election. Coakley basically stopped campaigning after her December primary win. She didn't go around the state and shake hands with voters, she even scoffed at the very notion of standing outside Fenway Park in the cold to meet voters. For better or worse, voters respond strongly to this sort of arrogance and disregard. The only way to win an election, even in politically favorable territory, is to earn every vote.
3. If you're going to have an ambitious, complicated, far-reaching agenda, it better be successful. An aggressive legislative agenda that delivers for the American people is political gold. An aggressive legislative agenda that gets buried in the weeds of deal-making, special compromises and carve-outs can be ok in the long-run if people feel positive effects. An aggressive legislative agenda that gets buried in the weeds AND ultimately fails is catastrophic.
There is a lot more to say about what happened in Massachusetts, and it will certainly take me a long time to get over the fact that Ted Kennedy's replacement might kill health care reform. But Democrats need to keep their heads up. Put things in perspective: we still have huge majorities, and the American people expect us to deliver on our promises. Here are some pieces that give more insight into last night's debacle.
CONGRESS: That's right, Congress still exists and Democrats still have to take care of the nation's business! The Senate reconvened today for the first time since their pre-Christmas vote on health reform. Senator-elect Scott Brown was not sworn in yet, but Democrats at all levels are saying that they won't try to pass health reform before he is seated. The best option, in my view, is for the House to adopt the Senate's version of the bill, and then for both chambers to pass a separate bill making changes to the original bill under reconciliation. There is no indication at this point that House Democrats are willing to go along with this option, but I think they'll soon realize that they have no other choice.
The Senate did vote today 97-0 to confirm Beverly Baldwin Martin to be a U.S. Circuit Judge.
The House voted on a slew of suspension bills, including one that makes charitable contributions to the Haiti relief effort tax deductible (good news). They also voted on a couple of Indian land measures.
Hang in there, folks! We'll see you again tomorrow night.
Showing posts with label MA-SEN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MA-SEN. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Late Night Strike...Stomach Punched
This one really really hurts. I'll need to recover for another 24 hours before I say more, but in case you haven't heard, Scott Brown has defeated Martha Coakley in the race to succeed Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts, and he will become the Republicans' all-important 41st Senator.
The Daily Strike-1/19/10-What to Watch For in MA
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. This is just a quick entry to give you an idea of what to watch for when the votes are counted in tonight's special Senate Election in Massachusetts. You can follow my instant reactions on my Twitter account by clicking here. I'll be giving more analysis on what this election means in the coming days. I'll give you a hint: Obama and the Democrats need to make some serious changes.
Overall, the great Nate Silver projects that Republican Scott Brown has a 75% chance of winning tonight's election, based on all pre-election polling. Silver has never steered me wrong, so I'll hop on his bandwagon and agree with him. I think Coakley will have to pull some sort of rabbit out of her hat to win, possibly a massive voter turnout operation in the liberal parts of the state. Brown needs to transfer the enthusiasm he's seen at his rallies to the voting booth. Unfortunately, there will be no exit polling on this race, so we'll have to watch health care reform potentially die precinct, by precinct. Here's what you should be looking at when the votes start pouring in:
1. Turnout, turnout, turnout. Anecdotal reports suggest that turnout is high across the state, but it's unclear which candidate will benefit. If turnout is high in Boston, Cambridge and Somerville, Coakley does well. If turnout is high in the southern Boston suburbs, or in Central Mass., he will probably pull it out.
2. The map. I was trying to get an understanding of the political map in Massachusetts. The last truly competitive race statewide happened in 2002, when Republican Mitt Romney won the statehouse. In that election, Democrats ran well in Western Mass (the Berkshires), Boston proper, and the western and northern suburbs of Boston. Romney did well in the southern Boston suburbs and on the islands (Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard etc.) as well as the center of the state. To figure out who's doing well as the numbers trickle in, we'll need to know in which counties the votes have been counted. Rumor has it (according to Washington Post's The Fix) that heavily Democratic areas near Boston, like Somerville, Cambridge and Arlington, report their results early. If Brown does well in these areas, the race is over.
3. The leaks. The people with the best information will be those that are getting precinct-by-precinct vote tallies. These political operatives usually leak information to hyper-active political news outlets, like politico.com or talkingpointsmemo.com. Take these tidbits with a grain of salt: a lot of these leakers have partisan affiliations. But you can discern a sense of the mood in each camp by what "unnamed advisors" are saying.
4. Screw the whole thing and do something else. Due to Brown's lead in the polls, this might be the most appealing option out there to progressives. What else can you do on this Tuesday night?
-4 hours of The Office on TBS
-Watch Hockey: Sharks vs. Kings on TCN Ch. 8 in the DC area
-Baking! What makes you feel better than eating something sweet?
-Reading. Haven't picked up a book in awhile? Tonight's the night!
-Watch election returns. No not from this election, that's too depressing. Watch YouTube
videos of Obama's victory in 2008.
-Exercise...hit the gym, go for a run. Always a good choice.
-Hang out with those who know nothing about politics. For me, that's my cat. He has no idea that the Democrats are potentially squandering their 60-vote majority.
If the election gets too depressing, my Twittering may cease, and I may join you all in doing these more interesting activities.
Overall, the great Nate Silver projects that Republican Scott Brown has a 75% chance of winning tonight's election, based on all pre-election polling. Silver has never steered me wrong, so I'll hop on his bandwagon and agree with him. I think Coakley will have to pull some sort of rabbit out of her hat to win, possibly a massive voter turnout operation in the liberal parts of the state. Brown needs to transfer the enthusiasm he's seen at his rallies to the voting booth. Unfortunately, there will be no exit polling on this race, so we'll have to watch health care reform potentially die precinct, by precinct. Here's what you should be looking at when the votes start pouring in:
1. Turnout, turnout, turnout. Anecdotal reports suggest that turnout is high across the state, but it's unclear which candidate will benefit. If turnout is high in Boston, Cambridge and Somerville, Coakley does well. If turnout is high in the southern Boston suburbs, or in Central Mass., he will probably pull it out.
2. The map. I was trying to get an understanding of the political map in Massachusetts. The last truly competitive race statewide happened in 2002, when Republican Mitt Romney won the statehouse. In that election, Democrats ran well in Western Mass (the Berkshires), Boston proper, and the western and northern suburbs of Boston. Romney did well in the southern Boston suburbs and on the islands (Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard etc.) as well as the center of the state. To figure out who's doing well as the numbers trickle in, we'll need to know in which counties the votes have been counted. Rumor has it (according to Washington Post's The Fix) that heavily Democratic areas near Boston, like Somerville, Cambridge and Arlington, report their results early. If Brown does well in these areas, the race is over.
3. The leaks. The people with the best information will be those that are getting precinct-by-precinct vote tallies. These political operatives usually leak information to hyper-active political news outlets, like politico.com or talkingpointsmemo.com. Take these tidbits with a grain of salt: a lot of these leakers have partisan affiliations. But you can discern a sense of the mood in each camp by what "unnamed advisors" are saying.
4. Screw the whole thing and do something else. Due to Brown's lead in the polls, this might be the most appealing option out there to progressives. What else can you do on this Tuesday night?
-4 hours of The Office on TBS
-Watch Hockey: Sharks vs. Kings on TCN Ch. 8 in the DC area
-Baking! What makes you feel better than eating something sweet?
-Reading. Haven't picked up a book in awhile? Tonight's the night!
-Watch election returns. No not from this election, that's too depressing. Watch YouTube
videos of Obama's victory in 2008.
-Exercise...hit the gym, go for a run. Always a good choice.
-Hang out with those who know nothing about politics. For me, that's my cat. He has no idea that the Democrats are potentially squandering their 60-vote majority.
If the election gets too depressing, my Twittering may cease, and I may join you all in doing these more interesting activities.
Monday, January 18, 2010
The Weekly Strike-1/18-1/24
Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike, where we preview the week in politics. I hope you are all enjoying your three day weekend. Happy Martin Luther King Jr. day.
MA-SEN: The biggest story of the week is tomorrow's Senate election in Massachusetts to replace the late Ted Kennedy. This race will determine whether Democrats will keep their current 60 vote filibuster-proof (in theory) majority, or whether the Republicans will have their 41st vote to obstruct the Obama agenda. In the short-term, the election will determine whether health care reform, most notably the delicate compromises being worked out at the White House, will survive. Beyond the practical implications of this election, this race carries enormous symbolic meaning. If Republican Scott Brown wins, Republicans will feel more confident in their "just say no" tactics as a winning political strategy. Vulnerable Democrats will see that if their party is losing in Massachusetts, things are really grim, and it might be time to start running for the hills.
It's hard to get a firm read on where the race is right now. Since I last wrote on Friday, it seems that there has been a slight halt to Scott Brown's momentum. I'm not sure how reliable internal polls are, but Democrat Martha Coakley's own polls showed her down by 3 points on Friday, and they now show her up by 2 points. It's possible that President Obama's visit yesterday has awakened despondent Democrats, who are now more likely to to head to the polls. On the other hand, all independent polling I've seen since Thursday has shown Brown ahead, including a poll released last night from the Democratic firm, PPP polls. These polls reflect what voters were thinking BEFORE Obama's appearance, however. The PPP poll showed that almost 20% of Obama voters would vote for Republican Scott Brown. I'd like to believe that some of these voters will change their minds after hearing Obama's speech yesterday.
Coakley has run an extremely uninspired campaign in a difficult political environment for Democrats. In some ways, this race is a perfect storm for the Republican party, and that's why I would say that Brown is the slight, slight favorite at this point. The x-factor is turnout. If Coakley's turnout operation is as good as it has been hyped, then it's possible she could pull this thing out. For the sake of President Obama's agenda, I hope she does. God speed.
THE WHITE HOUSE: The President will be keeping a very close eye on this race, but he also has a full plate of other matters. Today, he will participate in a service event in D.C. to honor Martin Luther King Jr. He will also host a reception at the White House with African American seniors and their grandchildren on the civil rights movement. The President's schedule of the rest of the week has not been released, but I expect that he'll spend some considerable time on the relief efforts in Haiti, and facilitating additional compromises on health reform. In the event that Scott Brown wins, Obama will probably start groveling at the feet of Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME), the one Republican who has expressed one iota of interest in supporting health reform.
Also, Wednesday will be the one year anniversary of Obama's inauguration. It's hard to believe that it's really been a year. Many of us wish we could go back in time to the jubilation of inauguration weekend, and not be stuck with the harsh realities of governing. But alas, the fight goes on.
THE SENATE: The Senate comes back into session this week. On Wednesday, the Senate will vote on the nomination of Beverly Baldwin Martin to be a Circuit Judge on the 11th District Court of Appeals. I expect her nomination to pass relatively easily.
The Senate will then vote on amendments and final passage of a bill that raises the statutory debt limit. The Senate approved a temporary increase in the debt limit prior to the August recess. Congress must raise the ceiling again by February lest the U.S. default on its loans.
What the Senate turns to next will depend on the situation in Massachusetts. If a winner is declared on Tuesday night, the new Senator will be sworn in anytime from this Wednesday to early February, depending on when the Bay State issues an election certification.
THE HOUSE: The House is once again in a holding pattern, waiting for the Senate to act on a whole host of items. This week, the House will vote on a series of suspension bills tomorrow and Wednesday. On Thursday, the House will vote on a trio of bills dealing with Indian water rights (the biggest issue of our time, of course).
That's it for now. I will not be writing you until tomorrow evening, when I will be live-twittering the results in Massachusetts. You can follow along here.
MA-SEN: The biggest story of the week is tomorrow's Senate election in Massachusetts to replace the late Ted Kennedy. This race will determine whether Democrats will keep their current 60 vote filibuster-proof (in theory) majority, or whether the Republicans will have their 41st vote to obstruct the Obama agenda. In the short-term, the election will determine whether health care reform, most notably the delicate compromises being worked out at the White House, will survive. Beyond the practical implications of this election, this race carries enormous symbolic meaning. If Republican Scott Brown wins, Republicans will feel more confident in their "just say no" tactics as a winning political strategy. Vulnerable Democrats will see that if their party is losing in Massachusetts, things are really grim, and it might be time to start running for the hills.
It's hard to get a firm read on where the race is right now. Since I last wrote on Friday, it seems that there has been a slight halt to Scott Brown's momentum. I'm not sure how reliable internal polls are, but Democrat Martha Coakley's own polls showed her down by 3 points on Friday, and they now show her up by 2 points. It's possible that President Obama's visit yesterday has awakened despondent Democrats, who are now more likely to to head to the polls. On the other hand, all independent polling I've seen since Thursday has shown Brown ahead, including a poll released last night from the Democratic firm, PPP polls. These polls reflect what voters were thinking BEFORE Obama's appearance, however. The PPP poll showed that almost 20% of Obama voters would vote for Republican Scott Brown. I'd like to believe that some of these voters will change their minds after hearing Obama's speech yesterday.
Coakley has run an extremely uninspired campaign in a difficult political environment for Democrats. In some ways, this race is a perfect storm for the Republican party, and that's why I would say that Brown is the slight, slight favorite at this point. The x-factor is turnout. If Coakley's turnout operation is as good as it has been hyped, then it's possible she could pull this thing out. For the sake of President Obama's agenda, I hope she does. God speed.
THE WHITE HOUSE: The President will be keeping a very close eye on this race, but he also has a full plate of other matters. Today, he will participate in a service event in D.C. to honor Martin Luther King Jr. He will also host a reception at the White House with African American seniors and their grandchildren on the civil rights movement. The President's schedule of the rest of the week has not been released, but I expect that he'll spend some considerable time on the relief efforts in Haiti, and facilitating additional compromises on health reform. In the event that Scott Brown wins, Obama will probably start groveling at the feet of Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME), the one Republican who has expressed one iota of interest in supporting health reform.
Also, Wednesday will be the one year anniversary of Obama's inauguration. It's hard to believe that it's really been a year. Many of us wish we could go back in time to the jubilation of inauguration weekend, and not be stuck with the harsh realities of governing. But alas, the fight goes on.
THE SENATE: The Senate comes back into session this week. On Wednesday, the Senate will vote on the nomination of Beverly Baldwin Martin to be a Circuit Judge on the 11th District Court of Appeals. I expect her nomination to pass relatively easily.
The Senate will then vote on amendments and final passage of a bill that raises the statutory debt limit. The Senate approved a temporary increase in the debt limit prior to the August recess. Congress must raise the ceiling again by February lest the U.S. default on its loans.
What the Senate turns to next will depend on the situation in Massachusetts. If a winner is declared on Tuesday night, the new Senator will be sworn in anytime from this Wednesday to early February, depending on when the Bay State issues an election certification.
THE HOUSE: The House is once again in a holding pattern, waiting for the Senate to act on a whole host of items. This week, the House will vote on a series of suspension bills tomorrow and Wednesday. On Thursday, the House will vote on a trio of bills dealing with Indian water rights (the biggest issue of our time, of course).
That's it for now. I will not be writing you until tomorrow evening, when I will be live-twittering the results in Massachusetts. You can follow along here.
Friday, January 15, 2010
The Daily Strike-1/15/10-Why Massachusetts Matters
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. I didn't expect to be devoting so many of my entries early this year on political races, but I am forced to due to the political tsunami taking place in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.
MA-SEN: As morbid as I've been about this race over the past few days, I'm actually feeling even worse today. For one, Republican Scott Brown has all of the momentum. His supporters are enthused and ready to get out and vote. He got a blaring headline today in the Boston Herald about his new found lead in the Suffolk poll that read "GREAT SCOTT!" Every political pundit from left to right is talking about how he could pull off the upset of the century. In fact, rumor has it that Coakley's own internal polling is now showing her behind.
On the contrary, Democrat Martha Coakley seems to be really floundering right now. She's made a bunch of gaffes, like when she seemingly criticized her opponent for campaigning in the cold outside Fenway Park. More to the point, she's shown absolutely no passion on the campaign trail. She has given no real indication to voters what she stands for or why she's in this race to begin with. She assumed for weeks that she was going to coast to a victory, so she basically didn't campaign much. She held rallies with her core supporters, but she did no traditional politicking (shaking hands) nor did she air a single advertisement. In a normal political environment, Coakley might have been able to get away with this in a liberal state like Massachussetts, where voters are naturally inclined to support Democrats. Unfortunately, this is not a normal political environment. The environment is playing out in the following ways, all of which are bad for the Democrats:
1. Republicans are angry. They are passionately angry. They don't like Obama, they don't like his policies, and they want to do whatever they can to rebuke him. Translation: they will come out to vote enthusiastically.
2. Independents are souring on the Democrats. They don't think that Democratic policies are helping to ease the economic crisis. They don't like that the Democrats have been so ambitious with a left-wing legislative agenda. If they WERE going to pursue such an ambitious agenda, why aren't things getting better yet? Independents right now are polling about 2-to-1 for Republican candidates from Virginia, to New Jersey, to Massachusetts.
3. Democrats are frustrated and turned off. They worked so hard to get Obama elected and 2008, and so far what they've gotten are legislative setbacks, gridlock, and broken promises. Few of them will turn to the Republican party (although the Suffolk poll showed that 17 (!) percent of Democrats were supporting Brown), but many of them will simply become disinterested in politics for awhile, and maybe they don't show up at the polls.
This perfect storm of negative dynamics for the Democrats, combined with a less than adequate campaign from Coakley, has made the race a toss-up at best. Many pundits today are calling Brown the new presumptive favorite.
A Brown win would be, simply, catastrophic for Democrats. Let's list the reasons.
1. Health care reform. Without 60 votes in the Senate, the Democrats probably don't have the votes to enact an emerging House-Senate compromise on health reform. To get health reform passed, they'd either have to try and pick off Republican Olympia Snowe (unlikely, in my view), hold a vote before Brown got seated, or the House would have to accept the current Senate bill verbatim. None of these options is particularly appealing. The optics of Democratic members of Congress approving a bill that voters in the most liberal state have seemingly rejected would not be good. Plus, knowing the weak willed Democrats in both the House and Senate, you know Brown's loss would send them running for the hills.
2. The rest of Obama's agenda would also be imperil. It's bad enough that Brown would be the 41st Republican vote, enough to sustain a filibuster. A Brown victory would show vulnerable Democrats across the country that they are in a world of trouble. These freaked out Democrats will run away from the Obama agenda altogether, or they will opt for retirement, making the 2010 November election landscape even more perilous.
News just came out an hour or so ago that President Obama will be traveling to Boston to campaign with Coakley on Sunday. The President, even if the Suffolk poll, is viewed favorably among voters in Massachusetts, so his appearance should seemingly be quite helpful. It also could be a great way to get Democratic voters fired up and involved. On the other hand, Obama's visit carries political risks. If he shows up and she loses, it will be evidence that his campaigning prowess is limited, even in a dark blue state. Furthermore, Obama's appearance might draw the ire of Republicans, and give them even more reason to show up to the polls.
Simply put, Democrats could be in for an extremely painful, difficult night on Tuesday. We don't know yet what the exact electorate will look like, meaning there's a lot we won't know until the results start pouring in. But no matter what happens, this has been an unnecessary, brutal headache for the Democrats, and it's keeping me up late at night.
If you live in Massachusetts, please go vote for Martha Coakley. If not, make a few calls, or donate a couple of bucks.
I'll see you on Monday morning. Maybe we'll have some better news by then.
MA-SEN: As morbid as I've been about this race over the past few days, I'm actually feeling even worse today. For one, Republican Scott Brown has all of the momentum. His supporters are enthused and ready to get out and vote. He got a blaring headline today in the Boston Herald about his new found lead in the Suffolk poll that read "GREAT SCOTT!" Every political pundit from left to right is talking about how he could pull off the upset of the century. In fact, rumor has it that Coakley's own internal polling is now showing her behind.
On the contrary, Democrat Martha Coakley seems to be really floundering right now. She's made a bunch of gaffes, like when she seemingly criticized her opponent for campaigning in the cold outside Fenway Park. More to the point, she's shown absolutely no passion on the campaign trail. She has given no real indication to voters what she stands for or why she's in this race to begin with. She assumed for weeks that she was going to coast to a victory, so she basically didn't campaign much. She held rallies with her core supporters, but she did no traditional politicking (shaking hands) nor did she air a single advertisement. In a normal political environment, Coakley might have been able to get away with this in a liberal state like Massachussetts, where voters are naturally inclined to support Democrats. Unfortunately, this is not a normal political environment. The environment is playing out in the following ways, all of which are bad for the Democrats:
1. Republicans are angry. They are passionately angry. They don't like Obama, they don't like his policies, and they want to do whatever they can to rebuke him. Translation: they will come out to vote enthusiastically.
2. Independents are souring on the Democrats. They don't think that Democratic policies are helping to ease the economic crisis. They don't like that the Democrats have been so ambitious with a left-wing legislative agenda. If they WERE going to pursue such an ambitious agenda, why aren't things getting better yet? Independents right now are polling about 2-to-1 for Republican candidates from Virginia, to New Jersey, to Massachusetts.
3. Democrats are frustrated and turned off. They worked so hard to get Obama elected and 2008, and so far what they've gotten are legislative setbacks, gridlock, and broken promises. Few of them will turn to the Republican party (although the Suffolk poll showed that 17 (!) percent of Democrats were supporting Brown), but many of them will simply become disinterested in politics for awhile, and maybe they don't show up at the polls.
This perfect storm of negative dynamics for the Democrats, combined with a less than adequate campaign from Coakley, has made the race a toss-up at best. Many pundits today are calling Brown the new presumptive favorite.
A Brown win would be, simply, catastrophic for Democrats. Let's list the reasons.
1. Health care reform. Without 60 votes in the Senate, the Democrats probably don't have the votes to enact an emerging House-Senate compromise on health reform. To get health reform passed, they'd either have to try and pick off Republican Olympia Snowe (unlikely, in my view), hold a vote before Brown got seated, or the House would have to accept the current Senate bill verbatim. None of these options is particularly appealing. The optics of Democratic members of Congress approving a bill that voters in the most liberal state have seemingly rejected would not be good. Plus, knowing the weak willed Democrats in both the House and Senate, you know Brown's loss would send them running for the hills.
2. The rest of Obama's agenda would also be imperil. It's bad enough that Brown would be the 41st Republican vote, enough to sustain a filibuster. A Brown victory would show vulnerable Democrats across the country that they are in a world of trouble. These freaked out Democrats will run away from the Obama agenda altogether, or they will opt for retirement, making the 2010 November election landscape even more perilous.
News just came out an hour or so ago that President Obama will be traveling to Boston to campaign with Coakley on Sunday. The President, even if the Suffolk poll, is viewed favorably among voters in Massachusetts, so his appearance should seemingly be quite helpful. It also could be a great way to get Democratic voters fired up and involved. On the other hand, Obama's visit carries political risks. If he shows up and she loses, it will be evidence that his campaigning prowess is limited, even in a dark blue state. Furthermore, Obama's appearance might draw the ire of Republicans, and give them even more reason to show up to the polls.
Simply put, Democrats could be in for an extremely painful, difficult night on Tuesday. We don't know yet what the exact electorate will look like, meaning there's a lot we won't know until the results start pouring in. But no matter what happens, this has been an unnecessary, brutal headache for the Democrats, and it's keeping me up late at night.
If you live in Massachusetts, please go vote for Martha Coakley. If not, make a few calls, or donate a couple of bucks.
I'll see you on Monday morning. Maybe we'll have some better news by then.
Stomach Punch Update: The Fist Extends
Tonight, a poll came out from Suffolk University showing Republican Scott Brown beating Democrat Martha Coakley by 4 in the Massachussetts Special Election. The most trusted man in poll analysis, Nate Silver, concludes that this race is now a pure tossup, and after seeing this poll, I'll have to reluctantly agree. I don't know how we got ourselves into this situation, but I honestly don't know if Coakley is gonna pull it out at this point. What a catastrophe for the Democratic Party.
Accordingly, I am changing the MA-SEN race from "Lean Democratic" to "Tossup."
Accordingly, I am changing the MA-SEN race from "Lean Democratic" to "Tossup."
Thursday, January 14, 2010
The Daily Strike-1/14/10-A Deal...With Major Caveats
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. I'm trying to stay positive on the Massachusetts Senate election and health reform. *Deep Breath*.
HEALTH CARE: There is some potentially very good news on the health care front this evening. The White House has reached a deal with the major unions on a contentious issue, the so-called excise tax on high-cost insurance plans. Unions were opposed to the tax, because oftentimes, union workers get great health benefits in lieu of higher wages. Under the Senate bill, the excise tax would apply to plans over $23,000 and would be indexed with inflation (slightly more than the increase in the Consumer Price Index). Under the compromise, the threshold of the plan would move to $24,000, and unionized workers would be exempt from the tax until 2017 so that they'd have the opportunity renegotiate their benefits package. Also, vision and dental packages wouldn't be included in the taxable benefits. There are also reports that as part of the deal, the health insurance exchange would be open to more employers after 2017.
I think this is a very good deal for both unions and the White House. The excise tax is important because it can discourage people from buying high-cost plans, and thus can help bend the proverbial "cost curve." With the deal in place, unions will have time to make negotiate benefits packages that won't be subject to the tax.
White House Spokesman Robert Gibbs said that House and Senate leaders are close to resolving the other remaining issues. It is possible that they could submit a final bill to the Congressional Budget Office by tomorrow evening. Nothing can stop us now! Nothing....!!.....
MA-SEN:....except this stupid Massachusetts Senate race! Every deal the White House makes will be for naught of the Democrats don't win in the Bay State. A new poll out today from Research 2000 shows Democrat Martha Coakley with an 8 point lead over Republican Scott Brown. Curiously, both of the major political prognosticators, Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg, decided today to change the race to "tossup." I'm not sure why they did this today, when the only poll that came out seemed favorable to Coakley.
The Democrats are pouring loads of money into the race, and they apparently have a very strong get-out-the-vote operation. They will need that operation to make up for an enthusiastic Republican Party. At this point, I'm still saying the race leans towards Coakley.
HAITI: The President had to pay a good deal of attention today to the crisis in Haiti. Having watched TV footage last night, it was pretty gruesome. The President has asked former Presidents Bush (43) and Clinton to launch a public relations campaign to solicit contributions for the victims. A bunch of liberals are complaining about the fact that President Bush is involved in this, especially considering his performance during Hurricane Katrina. But I'm glad Obama tapped Bush, especially if it encourages Republicans to help the government's rescue efforts. I think everyone deserves a chance to do some good....
That's it for today. See you tomorrow! We'll be looking out for the results of a Suffolk poll of the MA-SEN race tomorrow.
HEALTH CARE: There is some potentially very good news on the health care front this evening. The White House has reached a deal with the major unions on a contentious issue, the so-called excise tax on high-cost insurance plans. Unions were opposed to the tax, because oftentimes, union workers get great health benefits in lieu of higher wages. Under the Senate bill, the excise tax would apply to plans over $23,000 and would be indexed with inflation (slightly more than the increase in the Consumer Price Index). Under the compromise, the threshold of the plan would move to $24,000, and unionized workers would be exempt from the tax until 2017 so that they'd have the opportunity renegotiate their benefits package. Also, vision and dental packages wouldn't be included in the taxable benefits. There are also reports that as part of the deal, the health insurance exchange would be open to more employers after 2017.
I think this is a very good deal for both unions and the White House. The excise tax is important because it can discourage people from buying high-cost plans, and thus can help bend the proverbial "cost curve." With the deal in place, unions will have time to make negotiate benefits packages that won't be subject to the tax.
White House Spokesman Robert Gibbs said that House and Senate leaders are close to resolving the other remaining issues. It is possible that they could submit a final bill to the Congressional Budget Office by tomorrow evening. Nothing can stop us now! Nothing....!!.....
MA-SEN:....except this stupid Massachusetts Senate race! Every deal the White House makes will be for naught of the Democrats don't win in the Bay State. A new poll out today from Research 2000 shows Democrat Martha Coakley with an 8 point lead over Republican Scott Brown. Curiously, both of the major political prognosticators, Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg, decided today to change the race to "tossup." I'm not sure why they did this today, when the only poll that came out seemed favorable to Coakley.
The Democrats are pouring loads of money into the race, and they apparently have a very strong get-out-the-vote operation. They will need that operation to make up for an enthusiastic Republican Party. At this point, I'm still saying the race leans towards Coakley.
HAITI: The President had to pay a good deal of attention today to the crisis in Haiti. Having watched TV footage last night, it was pretty gruesome. The President has asked former Presidents Bush (43) and Clinton to launch a public relations campaign to solicit contributions for the victims. A bunch of liberals are complaining about the fact that President Bush is involved in this, especially considering his performance during Hurricane Katrina. But I'm glad Obama tapped Bush, especially if it encourages Republicans to help the government's rescue efforts. I think everyone deserves a chance to do some good....
That's it for today. See you tomorrow! We'll be looking out for the results of a Suffolk poll of the MA-SEN race tomorrow.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
The Daily Strike-1/13/09-Negotiating Marathon
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. Countdown to the Massachusetts Senate Election is 6 days. I wish we could just get it over with.
HEALTH CARE MEETING: House and Senate Democratic leaders met for over 8, yes 8, hours today at the White House trying to hammer out a deal on a final health reform package. So far, there is no word whether a deal was reached at the meeting. There are several issues we know are under discussion. Among them are the level of subsidies, whether to make the health insurance exchange federal or state-based, and how to fund the bill. There are a lot of smaller differences between the House and Senate bills that must be hashed out as well. Apparently, the President said that no one could leave until a deal was hashed out. If he was able to pull off a deal in this meeting, he will be somewhat of a miracle worker.
Of course these negotiations are complicated by the situation in Massachusetts. The Republican candidate in the special election to replace Ted Kennedy has vowed to block health reform if he is elected next Tuesday. Democrat Martha Coakley would be the bill's key 60th vote. Democrats are negotiating under the assumption that either Coakley will win, or that Democrats can stall the swearing in of Brown long enough for health care reform to pass. We will give full details of the President's meeting when they become available.
HAITI: Obviously, everyone is pretty shocked about the horrible earthquake yesterday in Haiti. Apparently, over 100,000 people, a staggering number, are believed to have died. In the country's capital of Port-Au-Prince, every single hospital has collapsed, along with the President's palace. I can only imagine what is going on in the poorest neighborhoods. I hope you all donate some money to the victims of this tragedy.
Even the worst tragedies can't pass without some insane statements from the Right Wing. Rush Limbaugh said today that Obama will use the earthquake to boost his credibility with "light-skinned" and "dark skinned" blacks in this country. Even worse, Pat Robertson said that the Haitians had this coming because they had "made a deal with the devil." I don't want to sink to their level by talking about this more, but wow, they're nuts.
THE HOUSE: The House today passed several bills under suspension of the rules. They also voted not to override President Obama's non-veto veto of an unnecessary spending bill by a vote of 143-245. This vote is a sign of true blind partisanship. This was a bill that was a stopgap funding measure, and it was unnecessary because Congress passed their spending bills on time. The President vetoed the bill, and Congress is constitutionally obligated to vote on whether to override the veto. The vote should have been an afterthought. This was just a technicality! But 140 Republicans and 3 Democrats (Filner of CA, Carney of PA and Taylor of MS) decided to vote yes on overriding the veto just for the hell of it.
That's it for now, have a good night.
HEALTH CARE MEETING: House and Senate Democratic leaders met for over 8, yes 8, hours today at the White House trying to hammer out a deal on a final health reform package. So far, there is no word whether a deal was reached at the meeting. There are several issues we know are under discussion. Among them are the level of subsidies, whether to make the health insurance exchange federal or state-based, and how to fund the bill. There are a lot of smaller differences between the House and Senate bills that must be hashed out as well. Apparently, the President said that no one could leave until a deal was hashed out. If he was able to pull off a deal in this meeting, he will be somewhat of a miracle worker.
Of course these negotiations are complicated by the situation in Massachusetts. The Republican candidate in the special election to replace Ted Kennedy has vowed to block health reform if he is elected next Tuesday. Democrat Martha Coakley would be the bill's key 60th vote. Democrats are negotiating under the assumption that either Coakley will win, or that Democrats can stall the swearing in of Brown long enough for health care reform to pass. We will give full details of the President's meeting when they become available.
HAITI: Obviously, everyone is pretty shocked about the horrible earthquake yesterday in Haiti. Apparently, over 100,000 people, a staggering number, are believed to have died. In the country's capital of Port-Au-Prince, every single hospital has collapsed, along with the President's palace. I can only imagine what is going on in the poorest neighborhoods. I hope you all donate some money to the victims of this tragedy.
Even the worst tragedies can't pass without some insane statements from the Right Wing. Rush Limbaugh said today that Obama will use the earthquake to boost his credibility with "light-skinned" and "dark skinned" blacks in this country. Even worse, Pat Robertson said that the Haitians had this coming because they had "made a deal with the devil." I don't want to sink to their level by talking about this more, but wow, they're nuts.
THE HOUSE: The House today passed several bills under suspension of the rules. They also voted not to override President Obama's non-veto veto of an unnecessary spending bill by a vote of 143-245. This vote is a sign of true blind partisanship. This was a bill that was a stopgap funding measure, and it was unnecessary because Congress passed their spending bills on time. The President vetoed the bill, and Congress is constitutionally obligated to vote on whether to override the veto. The vote should have been an afterthought. This was just a technicality! But 140 Republicans and 3 Democrats (Filner of CA, Carney of PA and Taylor of MS) decided to vote yes on overriding the veto just for the hell of it.
That's it for now, have a good night.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
The Daily Strike-1/12/10-Stomach Punch Scenario Update
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. Make sure to catch The Big Picture's excellent entry laying out exactly what President Obama and Democrats must do to win in the court of public opinion. Also, thanks to those who have left comments. Keep them coming!
MA-SEN: Oy vey. Two new polls in the Massachusetts Senate race to replace Ted Kennedy are making me very, very nervous. An internal Democratic poll apparently showed Democrat Martha Coakley leading Republican Scott Brown by only 5 points. This is down from a margin of 14 points last week. Similarly, Rasmussen now shows Brown behind by only 2 points after being down 9 points last week.
Democrats at least now have a sense of urgency about this race. On Friday, Coakley will be campaigning with President Bill Clinton and Senator John Kerry in Boston. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and the Democratic National Committee are pouring millions of dollars into the race which will be used primarily for advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts. Democratic donors were apparently sent a "panic" email deploring them to donate to Coakley's campaign.
The trajectory of this race right now is deeply troubling. Coakley needs to have a very strong final week, and a very organized ground game to avoid the upset. She also must explain the stakes of the race more clearly to Massachusetts overwhelmingly Democratic electorate: a Brown win means the end of health reform, probably. I don't think she's made that case convincingly enough yet.
I hope some other polls come out in the next couple of days so we can get further insight into this race, but the way things are looking now, we may be up for a long election night next Tuesday. In the meantime, we are downgrading this race in our rankings from "Likely Democratic" to "Lean Democratic." Another Rasmussen-type poll and we may call this a tossup. Also, partially because I'm in a bad mood, and partially due to reading more into these races, I've changed the PA (Specter) and IL (Open) Senate races from "Lean Democrat" to "Toss Up." My Senate projections have changed accordingly.
THE HOUSE: The House gaveled in today for the first time in 2010. They are currently establishing a quorum. They will vote tonight to dispose of President Obama's first (not really) veto. See yesterday's Weekly Strike for more information on that. The House comes back tomorrow to work on some suspension bills. On Thursday and Friday, the House is out of session while the Democratic caucus goes on their annual retreat. I would guess this retreat will be a lot more sober than last year's.
House and Senate leaders will be at the White House tomorrow to discuss health care. The results of the Coakley/Brown race will certainly be the elephant in the room there.
The Senate is out of session until next Wednesday.
That's it for tonight. See you tomorrow!
MA-SEN: Oy vey. Two new polls in the Massachusetts Senate race to replace Ted Kennedy are making me very, very nervous. An internal Democratic poll apparently showed Democrat Martha Coakley leading Republican Scott Brown by only 5 points. This is down from a margin of 14 points last week. Similarly, Rasmussen now shows Brown behind by only 2 points after being down 9 points last week.
Democrats at least now have a sense of urgency about this race. On Friday, Coakley will be campaigning with President Bill Clinton and Senator John Kerry in Boston. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and the Democratic National Committee are pouring millions of dollars into the race which will be used primarily for advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts. Democratic donors were apparently sent a "panic" email deploring them to donate to Coakley's campaign.
The trajectory of this race right now is deeply troubling. Coakley needs to have a very strong final week, and a very organized ground game to avoid the upset. She also must explain the stakes of the race more clearly to Massachusetts overwhelmingly Democratic electorate: a Brown win means the end of health reform, probably. I don't think she's made that case convincingly enough yet.
I hope some other polls come out in the next couple of days so we can get further insight into this race, but the way things are looking now, we may be up for a long election night next Tuesday. In the meantime, we are downgrading this race in our rankings from "Likely Democratic" to "Lean Democratic." Another Rasmussen-type poll and we may call this a tossup. Also, partially because I'm in a bad mood, and partially due to reading more into these races, I've changed the PA (Specter) and IL (Open) Senate races from "Lean Democrat" to "Toss Up." My Senate projections have changed accordingly.
THE HOUSE: The House gaveled in today for the first time in 2010. They are currently establishing a quorum. They will vote tonight to dispose of President Obama's first (not really) veto. See yesterday's Weekly Strike for more information on that. The House comes back tomorrow to work on some suspension bills. On Thursday and Friday, the House is out of session while the Democratic caucus goes on their annual retreat. I would guess this retreat will be a lot more sober than last year's.
House and Senate leaders will be at the White House tomorrow to discuss health care. The results of the Coakley/Brown race will certainly be the elephant in the room there.
The Senate is out of session until next Wednesday.
That's it for tonight. See you tomorrow!
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Time to FREAK OUT!!!!!!
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/01/toss-up-in-massachusetts.html
The Stomach Punch Scenario now seems somewhat likely. I can't believe this is happening. Keep in mind, Martha Coakley, the Democratic candidate, has basically stopped campaigning for over a month for now apparent reason. This is just killing me. KILLING me!!
The Stomach Punch Scenario now seems somewhat likely. I can't believe this is happening. Keep in mind, Martha Coakley, the Democratic candidate, has basically stopped campaigning for over a month for now apparent reason. This is just killing me. KILLING me!!
Friday, January 8, 2010
The Daily Strike-1/8/10-Bad News Bears
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. I for one, could use a break from politics for a few days, but I can't abandon you all before I give you one last blog entry for the week.
JOBS: The latest employment numbers came out today, and they were not good. The economy shed 85,000 jobs over the past month, significantly worse than November, when revised estimates show the economy actually gaining jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 10%, mostly because many people simply chose to stop looking for work. This is horrible news for the country and for the Obama administration. It shows that our recovery will be slow and stagnant. As long as unemployment remains high, voters will be angry and frustrated, and most of all, distrustful of their government.
The House already passed a jobs program in late December, and the Senate is currently drafting its own version. The bill is expected to include tax credits for businesses to create jobs and infrastructure spending. Senate Democrats say that they want to keep the bill "deficit neutral," which means that any spending would have to be relatively modest.
This is getting to be unacceptable to me. Democrats are unlikely to to enact successful jobs programs unless they abandon their ill-fated quest to decrease the deficit. Instead of kowtowing to the conventional wisdom that the government should be "tightening its belt" during a recession, the President and other Democrats need to actively explain to the American people why we need to make investments now and create jobs. They also need to explain that a major cause of the deficit is declining tax revenue, which could only be bolstered with robust job creation. It won't be enough to take half measures. It won't even be enough to enact significant policy changes. We have to change the national ethos against government spending. Right now, I'm very pessimistic that President Obama can achieve that goal.
NIGHTMARES: PPP Polling Institute, a Democratic firm, is in the middle of conducting a survey of the Massachusetts Special Senate Election to replace Ted Kennedy. PPP tweeted that the election "might be a real race" and that the race is now loseable for Democrats. Inexplicably, the Democratic candidate Martha Coakley hasn't really campaigned in the past three weeks, and has been sitting on a giant pile of money while Republican Scott Brown has been out there running advertisements. If Brown somehow wins this race is Deep Blue Massachussetts, the House would probably have to accept the Senate's version of the health care bill, because the Senate would not be able to muster 60 votes for a final merged package. I still can't fathom Ted Kennedy's replacement killing health reform. That's why I'm calling a Brown victory the "Stomach Punch Scenario." Hopefully these warning signs will wake up complacent Democrats so that we can get the job done on January 19th.
That's it for this evening, I'll see you again on Monday!
JOBS: The latest employment numbers came out today, and they were not good. The economy shed 85,000 jobs over the past month, significantly worse than November, when revised estimates show the economy actually gaining jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 10%, mostly because many people simply chose to stop looking for work. This is horrible news for the country and for the Obama administration. It shows that our recovery will be slow and stagnant. As long as unemployment remains high, voters will be angry and frustrated, and most of all, distrustful of their government.
The House already passed a jobs program in late December, and the Senate is currently drafting its own version. The bill is expected to include tax credits for businesses to create jobs and infrastructure spending. Senate Democrats say that they want to keep the bill "deficit neutral," which means that any spending would have to be relatively modest.
This is getting to be unacceptable to me. Democrats are unlikely to to enact successful jobs programs unless they abandon their ill-fated quest to decrease the deficit. Instead of kowtowing to the conventional wisdom that the government should be "tightening its belt" during a recession, the President and other Democrats need to actively explain to the American people why we need to make investments now and create jobs. They also need to explain that a major cause of the deficit is declining tax revenue, which could only be bolstered with robust job creation. It won't be enough to take half measures. It won't even be enough to enact significant policy changes. We have to change the national ethos against government spending. Right now, I'm very pessimistic that President Obama can achieve that goal.
NIGHTMARES: PPP Polling Institute, a Democratic firm, is in the middle of conducting a survey of the Massachusetts Special Senate Election to replace Ted Kennedy. PPP tweeted that the election "might be a real race" and that the race is now loseable for Democrats. Inexplicably, the Democratic candidate Martha Coakley hasn't really campaigned in the past three weeks, and has been sitting on a giant pile of money while Republican Scott Brown has been out there running advertisements. If Brown somehow wins this race is Deep Blue Massachussetts, the House would probably have to accept the Senate's version of the health care bill, because the Senate would not be able to muster 60 votes for a final merged package. I still can't fathom Ted Kennedy's replacement killing health reform. That's why I'm calling a Brown victory the "Stomach Punch Scenario." Hopefully these warning signs will wake up complacent Democrats so that we can get the job done on January 19th.
That's it for this evening, I'll see you again on Monday!
Thursday, January 7, 2010
The Daily Strike-1/7/10-My Responsibility
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. Only a few days until Session II of the 111th Congress begins.
TERRORISM: President Obama today made remarks in which he took responsibility for the failures that led to the Christmas Day terror incident. It was a classic "Buck Stops With Me" speech, in which the President takes responsibility for being the President when something bad happens. It's not that the President thinks that he is responsible for the breakdowns in the intelligence community, but rather he wants the American people to know that he's in charge, that he gets it.
The President started the speech with a subtle rebuke to former Vice President Cheney, when he stated unequivocally that we are at war. He then outlined the intelligence failures in detail. Intelligence agencies knew about the suspect's radical past, but did not "connect the dots" in a way that would keep the suspect off of the vaunted no-fly list. The President also announced what he plans to do to rectify the situation. He will order his top terrorism advisor to find new ways to expedite putting terrorists on no-fly lists, and he asked the Secretary of Homeland Security to speed up the implementation of full body scanners at international airports.
Today's speech may have seem somewhat belated and contrived, but I don't ever remember George W. Bush taking responsibility for any lapses in intelligence. Not with 9/11, not with Richard Reid the shoe bomber, not ever. Also, George W. Bush would never have released any sort of negative internal review.
MASS-SENATE: We talked the other day about the upcoming special Senate election in Massachussetts to choose Ted Kennedy's successor. A recent Rasmussen poll showed the Democrat Martha Coakley beating the Republican Scott Brown by 9 points. This relatively small margin in such a liberal state caused the Cook Political Report to shift the seat from "Solid Democrat" to "Lean Democrat." I still think Coakley will win in the Bay State, but I can understand the freakout of Democrats if the nightmare scenario comes to pass: Ted Kennedy's replacement kills health reform. Friend of the blog KagroX reminded us today, though, that the Democrats have already passed a health care bill. If Brown was elected, and Democrats only had 59 votes, the Senate likely would not be able to pass health reform again. Luckily, they wouldn't have to. The House could simply vote to accept the Senate bill verbatim. House leaders should keep this option in the back of their brains regardless of who wins the Massachusetts race. With people like Lieberman and Nelson, there's always a chance that moderate Democrats could seek to make the Senate bill even worse than it already is. If the House agreed to what the Senate has already done, a bill could be sent directly to Barack Obama's desk.
I hope that the House and Senate bills can be reconciled, because I believe several House provisions should be included in the final version of the bill. But it never hurts to have a backup plan.
That's it for now. See you tomorrow.
TERRORISM: President Obama today made remarks in which he took responsibility for the failures that led to the Christmas Day terror incident. It was a classic "Buck Stops With Me" speech, in which the President takes responsibility for being the President when something bad happens. It's not that the President thinks that he is responsible for the breakdowns in the intelligence community, but rather he wants the American people to know that he's in charge, that he gets it.
The President started the speech with a subtle rebuke to former Vice President Cheney, when he stated unequivocally that we are at war. He then outlined the intelligence failures in detail. Intelligence agencies knew about the suspect's radical past, but did not "connect the dots" in a way that would keep the suspect off of the vaunted no-fly list. The President also announced what he plans to do to rectify the situation. He will order his top terrorism advisor to find new ways to expedite putting terrorists on no-fly lists, and he asked the Secretary of Homeland Security to speed up the implementation of full body scanners at international airports.
Today's speech may have seem somewhat belated and contrived, but I don't ever remember George W. Bush taking responsibility for any lapses in intelligence. Not with 9/11, not with Richard Reid the shoe bomber, not ever. Also, George W. Bush would never have released any sort of negative internal review.
MASS-SENATE: We talked the other day about the upcoming special Senate election in Massachussetts to choose Ted Kennedy's successor. A recent Rasmussen poll showed the Democrat Martha Coakley beating the Republican Scott Brown by 9 points. This relatively small margin in such a liberal state caused the Cook Political Report to shift the seat from "Solid Democrat" to "Lean Democrat." I still think Coakley will win in the Bay State, but I can understand the freakout of Democrats if the nightmare scenario comes to pass: Ted Kennedy's replacement kills health reform. Friend of the blog KagroX reminded us today, though, that the Democrats have already passed a health care bill. If Brown was elected, and Democrats only had 59 votes, the Senate likely would not be able to pass health reform again. Luckily, they wouldn't have to. The House could simply vote to accept the Senate bill verbatim. House leaders should keep this option in the back of their brains regardless of who wins the Massachusetts race. With people like Lieberman and Nelson, there's always a chance that moderate Democrats could seek to make the Senate bill even worse than it already is. If the House agreed to what the Senate has already done, a bill could be sent directly to Barack Obama's desk.
I hope that the House and Senate bills can be reconciled, because I believe several House provisions should be included in the final version of the bill. But it never hurts to have a backup plan.
That's it for now. See you tomorrow.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
