Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. We're talking offshore drilling today, and it's giving me flashbacks to the "Drill, Baby, Drill!" days of 2008. And the Republicans thought that chant was their savior...
DRILLING: Today President Obama decided to lift a decades-long ban on offshore drilling off of the mid-Atlantic coast, in the Gulf of Mexico, and in some areas in Alaska. The good news is that Obama is still protecting the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, and it won't affect me because he won't be drilling off the coast of Maryland (take THAT, Virginia!).
The bad news is that this seeming capitulation to the Republicans doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I guess President Obama is using a promise of offshore drilling to get Republican support for his climate change bill. Let's face it: Republicans wouldn't support Obama's climate bill if the President funnelled money to NASCAR, the NRA and the Family Research Council. There is no point in giving ground in a major policy debate if you don't get anything in return. If Democrats were stuck at 59 votes on a groundbreaking climate bill in the Senate, and President Obama proposed increased offshore drilling to guarantee the support of one Republican Senator, I wouldn't have that big of a problem with it. But to propose drilling and get nothing from conservatives in return seems to me a bit pointless.
President Obama wisely pointed out that we only have 2 percent of the world's oil reserves, and we use 20 percent of the world's oil. Eventually we will need to transition to a clean energy economy, and the longer we wait, the more painful sacrifice we'll have to make. I'm not sure that President Obama's announcement today helps to achieve that goal.
I will say this, however: I have a much harder time doubting President Obama after what he pulled out on health reform.
THE WHITE HOUSE: The President spent this afternoon hosting a Women and Girls' Forum on Workplace Flexibility. Obama made remarks at the event, and even put in a plug for telecommuting. He doesn't want anymore government snow days, apparently. To achieve this goal, there better not be one inch of snow next year.
That's it for right now. I really need Congress to come back in session.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
The Daily Strike-3/30/10-Reconciliation Achieved
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. I could get used to these bill signing days!
RECONCILIATION: Today, President Obama, surrounded by lawmakers and students, signed the Health and Education Affordability Reconciliation Act. The bill makes a series of changes to the recently enacted Affordable Care Act, and also includes a separate unrelated measure that overhauls federal student loans.
Since last week, the President got a signing ceremony in which he dealt exclusively with his health care achievement, today's event was focused on student loans. The signing took place at a Northern Virginia Community College where Second Lady Jill Biden is a professor. Mrs. Biden introduced the President.
The student loan reform bill is a great progressive accomplishment on its own. The bill ends government subsidies to financial institutions that make student loans. It was incredibly inefficient for the government to subsidize private lenders, since private companies rack up quite a bit of overheard. Instead, the government will now be the originator of all student loans. This will save the government about $68 billion. With this savings, the government will invest in higher education in a number of ways. The funding for Pell Grants will be doubled. Student loan payments will be capped at 10% of a graduate's discretionary income, with any remaining balance forgiven after 20 years. Those who enter public service will have their loans forgiven after 10 years. The bill also makes historic investment in historically black colleges, and sets aside $2 billion for community colleges, which will enable 5 million more students to earn certificates or degrees over the next decade. I'm slightly disappointed that negotiatiors stripped down the funding from $10 billion to $2 billion for community colleges, but they needed to use that money to pay for part of the health care legislation. Mother Strike is particularly concerned about this issue, and I'm sure she would like to see the Obama administration commit more money in the next budget.
Nevertheless, the President has taken another huge step in helping out the struggling families of this country. He even talked again today about how this reform contributes to his idea of a "new foundation" for the economy. He had abandoned this rhetoric last year, to our great disappointment. Hopefully we can continue to build this foundation over the next few months by enacted financial reform and energy legislation.
THE WHITE HOUSE: The President spent the second part of the day with French President Nicholas Sarkozy. The two Presidents announced that new sanctions against Iran will be adopted "in weeks." Iran has so far rejected any attempts at reaching some sort of deal to curtail their nuclear ambitions. It's pretty clear at this point that strong UN sanctions might be the only way to put on some pressure. Any UN resolution will need the approval of France, which has a permanent seat on the Security Council.
On a separate note, Sarkozy had a vintage DC lunch at Ben's Chili Bowl on U Street. Awesome.
That's pretty much it for today. See you tomorrow!
RECONCILIATION: Today, President Obama, surrounded by lawmakers and students, signed the Health and Education Affordability Reconciliation Act. The bill makes a series of changes to the recently enacted Affordable Care Act, and also includes a separate unrelated measure that overhauls federal student loans.
Since last week, the President got a signing ceremony in which he dealt exclusively with his health care achievement, today's event was focused on student loans. The signing took place at a Northern Virginia Community College where Second Lady Jill Biden is a professor. Mrs. Biden introduced the President.
The student loan reform bill is a great progressive accomplishment on its own. The bill ends government subsidies to financial institutions that make student loans. It was incredibly inefficient for the government to subsidize private lenders, since private companies rack up quite a bit of overheard. Instead, the government will now be the originator of all student loans. This will save the government about $68 billion. With this savings, the government will invest in higher education in a number of ways. The funding for Pell Grants will be doubled. Student loan payments will be capped at 10% of a graduate's discretionary income, with any remaining balance forgiven after 20 years. Those who enter public service will have their loans forgiven after 10 years. The bill also makes historic investment in historically black colleges, and sets aside $2 billion for community colleges, which will enable 5 million more students to earn certificates or degrees over the next decade. I'm slightly disappointed that negotiatiors stripped down the funding from $10 billion to $2 billion for community colleges, but they needed to use that money to pay for part of the health care legislation. Mother Strike is particularly concerned about this issue, and I'm sure she would like to see the Obama administration commit more money in the next budget.
Nevertheless, the President has taken another huge step in helping out the struggling families of this country. He even talked again today about how this reform contributes to his idea of a "new foundation" for the economy. He had abandoned this rhetoric last year, to our great disappointment. Hopefully we can continue to build this foundation over the next few months by enacted financial reform and energy legislation.
THE WHITE HOUSE: The President spent the second part of the day with French President Nicholas Sarkozy. The two Presidents announced that new sanctions against Iran will be adopted "in weeks." Iran has so far rejected any attempts at reaching some sort of deal to curtail their nuclear ambitions. It's pretty clear at this point that strong UN sanctions might be the only way to put on some pressure. Any UN resolution will need the approval of France, which has a permanent seat on the Security Council.
On a separate note, Sarkozy had a vintage DC lunch at Ben's Chili Bowl on U Street. Awesome.
That's pretty much it for today. See you tomorrow!
Monday, March 29, 2010
The Daily Strike-3/29/10-Nothing's Happening
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. It's hard to get used to slow news days after health care reform has passed. Sure, there was a tragic bombing in Moscow. And the RNC got in trouble for paying for donors to watch a strip show. But I digress, there was very little going on in the political universe, so I thought I'd give an election update.
ELECTION 2010: We have made several updates to our election projections, which you can find on the right side of your screen. The main factor you'll have to pay attention to, though, is the national climate. If the economy continues to improve, and President Obama gains momentum after his health care victory, the Democrats' prospects will improve across the board. My projections reflect both the latest polling and the conventional wisdom about the political climate, which is still decidedly Republican.
In the Senate, the Democrats' fortunes have taken a turn for the worse. In California, it looks like Barbara Boxer is in real trouble against either of her likely opponents, Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina. I would still put odds on her winning, but recent polls, including the highly respected Field Poll, have shown the race to be a dead heat. In Wisconsin, Senator Russ Feingold may face a tough challenge if former Governor Tommy Thompson enters the race. I don't think Thompson is the best candidate in the world. He was a Bush administration secretary, which isn't exactly political gold these days. He also has recently signed up to be a lobbyist for a hedge fund. That would certainly be easy fodder for Feingold. If Thompson gets in the race, I think it will be a tossup. Without Thompson, it's Feingold's to lose.
At this point, it seems like the Democrats are very likely to lose seats in North Dakota, Delaware and Arkansas. I would also say they are underdogs in Indiana and Nevada. That's 5 seats that they have a 50%+ chance of losing. I consider Democratic seats in Illinois, California, Colorado and Pennsylvania to be tossups. Any of these races could realistically go Republican. If you combine the tossups with the lean takeover seats, the Democrats would be down to 50 seats. Democrats have a decent chance in two Republican held seats, in Missouri and New Hampshire. They also have a solid shot at a Republican open seat in Ohio. The situation, though, remains pretty bleak for Democrats. The numbers still favor a Democratic Senate when the 112th Congress begins, but I think there is at least a 25% chance of a Republican takeover.
I would say the Republicans' chances for retaking the House are slightly greater, maybe in the 35-40% range. Republicans would need to gain 40 seats to take back the majority. There isn't a lot of polling data on individual races, but the political climate, combined with the disproportionate amount of Democratic seats in Republican-leaning districts, and it could be a potential bloodbath for the Democratic party. Again, the ultimate result depends on the political climate, which I'm feeling a lot better about now than it did a couple of weeks ago. I agree with Nate Silver's assessment that the range of Democratic losses should be between 15-55.
The governor's races are all over the map. There could be as many as 20 party switches in governor's mansions this fall, which is almost unheard of. The races are crucial because governors will have the opportunity to influence the new Congressional boundaries after the 2010 Census.
That's it for today's update. Leave some comments, letting me know whether you agree with my assertions. See you tomorrow!
ELECTION 2010: We have made several updates to our election projections, which you can find on the right side of your screen. The main factor you'll have to pay attention to, though, is the national climate. If the economy continues to improve, and President Obama gains momentum after his health care victory, the Democrats' prospects will improve across the board. My projections reflect both the latest polling and the conventional wisdom about the political climate, which is still decidedly Republican.
In the Senate, the Democrats' fortunes have taken a turn for the worse. In California, it looks like Barbara Boxer is in real trouble against either of her likely opponents, Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina. I would still put odds on her winning, but recent polls, including the highly respected Field Poll, have shown the race to be a dead heat. In Wisconsin, Senator Russ Feingold may face a tough challenge if former Governor Tommy Thompson enters the race. I don't think Thompson is the best candidate in the world. He was a Bush administration secretary, which isn't exactly political gold these days. He also has recently signed up to be a lobbyist for a hedge fund. That would certainly be easy fodder for Feingold. If Thompson gets in the race, I think it will be a tossup. Without Thompson, it's Feingold's to lose.
At this point, it seems like the Democrats are very likely to lose seats in North Dakota, Delaware and Arkansas. I would also say they are underdogs in Indiana and Nevada. That's 5 seats that they have a 50%+ chance of losing. I consider Democratic seats in Illinois, California, Colorado and Pennsylvania to be tossups. Any of these races could realistically go Republican. If you combine the tossups with the lean takeover seats, the Democrats would be down to 50 seats. Democrats have a decent chance in two Republican held seats, in Missouri and New Hampshire. They also have a solid shot at a Republican open seat in Ohio. The situation, though, remains pretty bleak for Democrats. The numbers still favor a Democratic Senate when the 112th Congress begins, but I think there is at least a 25% chance of a Republican takeover.
I would say the Republicans' chances for retaking the House are slightly greater, maybe in the 35-40% range. Republicans would need to gain 40 seats to take back the majority. There isn't a lot of polling data on individual races, but the political climate, combined with the disproportionate amount of Democratic seats in Republican-leaning districts, and it could be a potential bloodbath for the Democratic party. Again, the ultimate result depends on the political climate, which I'm feeling a lot better about now than it did a couple of weeks ago. I agree with Nate Silver's assessment that the range of Democratic losses should be between 15-55.
The governor's races are all over the map. There could be as many as 20 party switches in governor's mansions this fall, which is almost unheard of. The races are crucial because governors will have the opportunity to influence the new Congressional boundaries after the 2010 Census.
That's it for today's update. Leave some comments, letting me know whether you agree with my assertions. See you tomorrow!
The Weekly Strike-3/29-4/4
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. For those of you Jewish readers, Happy Pesach! For those who aren't Jewish, nobody's perfect.
NORMALCY: The amazing thing about the upcoming week in politics is how devoid it will be of drama. Health care has passed. The reconciliation package of fixes have passed. Student loan reform has passed. Congress has skipped town. There are no tea-partiers in the streets of Washington. There is a welcome sense of quiet around here. But nevertheless, there is enough going on to merit an entry.
AFGHANISTAN: After last week's historic victories, President Obama jetted off on a secret trip to Afghanistan over the weekend. He met with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and put pressure on him to bring stability to his government in his second term. The success of the President's mission in Afghanistan depends largely on whether Karzai can make his government more appealing to the Afghan people than the Taliban alternative. The President also met with U.S. troops, where he thanked them for their dedication and sacrifice.
With all of the domestic battles brewing in the past couple of months, there has been very little focus on Afghanistan. Part of the reason is that the military has made significant gains. However, if there isn't adequate civilian progress, this could still be a perilous endeavor for the President.
THE WHITE HOUSE: The President has returned from his trip, and faces a very busy week ahead of him. Today, the President participates in a credentialing ceremony for foreign ambassadors. He then hosts a Passover Seder at the White House. The Strike wishes very much that he was invited.
Tomorrow, the President will sign the Reconciliation Act of 2010 at the White House. Because health care already got some pomp and circumstance last week, I expect the President this week to be more geared towards the student loan reform measure that got included in the reconciliation package. The President will also go on the road this week to tout his accomplishments. He will make stops in Maine and North Carolina.
CONGRESS: Congress, after its most productive session in a long, long time, has a well-deserved two week recess. Over the weekend, the President used the occasion to make 15 recess appointments, including one to liberal hero Craig Becker at the National Labor Relations Board. The President's nominees have been held up consistently over the past year due to unprecedented GOP obstructionism. I'm glad the President took advantage of this opportunity.
Congress did skip town without passing an extension of unemployment and COBRA benefits. Republicans did not allow a vote on these extensions, because they were not paid for. As a result of this politicking, millions of Americans will lose benefits next Monday, the 5th. Democrats plan to pass another extension when Congress comes back on April 12th, and they will make the extension retroactive, so people will still get benefits they would have accrued over the week of April 5th.
That's it for now, we'll see you tonight!
NORMALCY: The amazing thing about the upcoming week in politics is how devoid it will be of drama. Health care has passed. The reconciliation package of fixes have passed. Student loan reform has passed. Congress has skipped town. There are no tea-partiers in the streets of Washington. There is a welcome sense of quiet around here. But nevertheless, there is enough going on to merit an entry.
AFGHANISTAN: After last week's historic victories, President Obama jetted off on a secret trip to Afghanistan over the weekend. He met with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and put pressure on him to bring stability to his government in his second term. The success of the President's mission in Afghanistan depends largely on whether Karzai can make his government more appealing to the Afghan people than the Taliban alternative. The President also met with U.S. troops, where he thanked them for their dedication and sacrifice.
With all of the domestic battles brewing in the past couple of months, there has been very little focus on Afghanistan. Part of the reason is that the military has made significant gains. However, if there isn't adequate civilian progress, this could still be a perilous endeavor for the President.
THE WHITE HOUSE: The President has returned from his trip, and faces a very busy week ahead of him. Today, the President participates in a credentialing ceremony for foreign ambassadors. He then hosts a Passover Seder at the White House. The Strike wishes very much that he was invited.
Tomorrow, the President will sign the Reconciliation Act of 2010 at the White House. Because health care already got some pomp and circumstance last week, I expect the President this week to be more geared towards the student loan reform measure that got included in the reconciliation package. The President will also go on the road this week to tout his accomplishments. He will make stops in Maine and North Carolina.
CONGRESS: Congress, after its most productive session in a long, long time, has a well-deserved two week recess. Over the weekend, the President used the occasion to make 15 recess appointments, including one to liberal hero Craig Becker at the National Labor Relations Board. The President's nominees have been held up consistently over the past year due to unprecedented GOP obstructionism. I'm glad the President took advantage of this opportunity.
Congress did skip town without passing an extension of unemployment and COBRA benefits. Republicans did not allow a vote on these extensions, because they were not paid for. As a result of this politicking, millions of Americans will lose benefits next Monday, the 5th. Democrats plan to pass another extension when Congress comes back on April 12th, and they will make the extension retroactive, so people will still get benefits they would have accrued over the week of April 5th.
That's it for now, we'll see you tonight!
Thursday, March 25, 2010
The Daily Strike-3/25/10-The End is Near
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. That entry title is not in reference to the coming Armageddon that will rage because of health care.
HEALTH CARE: The end is near. Very, very near. Today, the Senate agreed to reconciliation bill, a package of changes to the health care law plus a major student loan overhaul, by a vote of 56-43. The vote came after about 12 hours of amendment votes over two days. Every single amendment failed.
For once, it was majority rules in the Senate, as reconciliation bills are not subject to the filibuster. Every Republican, as expected, opposed the bill. Democrats Lincoln (AR), Nelson (NE) and Pryor (AR) also were in opposition. Apparently, all of them decided to side with the student loan industry, and to protect some of the special deals that the reconciliation bill eliminated, like the so-called "Cornhusker Kickback."
Republicans had been making threats for weeks that they would be able to use procedural tricks to gut the reconciliation bill. By rule, reconciliation bills must consist of provisions that directly effect the federal budget. As it turns out, Republicans were only able to gut about two sentences from the bill. Both of the sentences are in the student loan reform section, and neither of them have a tangible effect on the overall bill. Therefore, the bill will have to go back to the House.
As I write, the House has begun debate on the Senate amendments to the reconciliation bill. Because the bill is only marginally different than the original one passed Sunday night, I expect it to pass by an identical margin. If there are changes in the vote, The final vote should come by 9pm this evening. At that point, the reconciliation bill will be sent to the President, and the Congressional debate on health care will officially be over. Hallelujah! Another chance to celebrate!
Just as the Congressional debate draws to a close, the fight for public opinion continues. Today, the President traveled to Iowa City, IA to hold a rally to celebrate the passage of health insurance reform. The President's speech was particularly strong, especially when he dared GOPers to try and repeal the bill. It is vitally important, now that the main health care bill is signed into law, that the President repeatedly highlights provisions that will immediately make lives better for the American people.
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS: As soon as the House approves the final changes to the reconciliation bill, Congress intends to go on recess for two weeks. For once, it looked like the recess would be well-deserved. Congress has accomplished a lot over over the last week. The problem is that unemployment benefits expire on April 5th, and Congress is not due back in session until April 12th. Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) in the Senate tried to bring up another temporary extension for a vote tonight, but the Republicans, like they did a few weeks ago, objected. This time, the objection was led by the obstructionist-in-chief, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma. There are discussions happening on the floor as we speak, and hopefully they'll come up with some sort of agreement.
It is amazing that Republicans will hold unemployment benefits hostage for political purposes. They are trying to make a political point about the deficit, but in doing so, they are causing a lot of people to suffer.
THE HOUSE: Before the House took up the revised reconciliation bill tonight, they took up a Senate-passed bill that reauthorizes FAA programs. The House added some provisions of their own, so the bill will have to be returned to the Senate. The bill passed easily by a vote of 276-145. 34 Republicans voted yes, and 6 Democrats voted no.
So here we are, just hours away from health care reform becoming a full reality. It feels pretty good.
HEALTH CARE: The end is near. Very, very near. Today, the Senate agreed to reconciliation bill, a package of changes to the health care law plus a major student loan overhaul, by a vote of 56-43. The vote came after about 12 hours of amendment votes over two days. Every single amendment failed.
For once, it was majority rules in the Senate, as reconciliation bills are not subject to the filibuster. Every Republican, as expected, opposed the bill. Democrats Lincoln (AR), Nelson (NE) and Pryor (AR) also were in opposition. Apparently, all of them decided to side with the student loan industry, and to protect some of the special deals that the reconciliation bill eliminated, like the so-called "Cornhusker Kickback."
Republicans had been making threats for weeks that they would be able to use procedural tricks to gut the reconciliation bill. By rule, reconciliation bills must consist of provisions that directly effect the federal budget. As it turns out, Republicans were only able to gut about two sentences from the bill. Both of the sentences are in the student loan reform section, and neither of them have a tangible effect on the overall bill. Therefore, the bill will have to go back to the House.
As I write, the House has begun debate on the Senate amendments to the reconciliation bill. Because the bill is only marginally different than the original one passed Sunday night, I expect it to pass by an identical margin. If there are changes in the vote, The final vote should come by 9pm this evening. At that point, the reconciliation bill will be sent to the President, and the Congressional debate on health care will officially be over. Hallelujah! Another chance to celebrate!
Just as the Congressional debate draws to a close, the fight for public opinion continues. Today, the President traveled to Iowa City, IA to hold a rally to celebrate the passage of health insurance reform. The President's speech was particularly strong, especially when he dared GOPers to try and repeal the bill. It is vitally important, now that the main health care bill is signed into law, that the President repeatedly highlights provisions that will immediately make lives better for the American people.
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS: As soon as the House approves the final changes to the reconciliation bill, Congress intends to go on recess for two weeks. For once, it looked like the recess would be well-deserved. Congress has accomplished a lot over over the last week. The problem is that unemployment benefits expire on April 5th, and Congress is not due back in session until April 12th. Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) in the Senate tried to bring up another temporary extension for a vote tonight, but the Republicans, like they did a few weeks ago, objected. This time, the objection was led by the obstructionist-in-chief, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma. There are discussions happening on the floor as we speak, and hopefully they'll come up with some sort of agreement.
It is amazing that Republicans will hold unemployment benefits hostage for political purposes. They are trying to make a political point about the deficit, but in doing so, they are causing a lot of people to suffer.
THE HOUSE: Before the House took up the revised reconciliation bill tonight, they took up a Senate-passed bill that reauthorizes FAA programs. The House added some provisions of their own, so the bill will have to be returned to the Senate. The bill passed easily by a vote of 276-145. 34 Republicans voted yes, and 6 Democrats voted no.
So here we are, just hours away from health care reform becoming a full reality. It feels pretty good.
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