Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. It promises to be a pretty busy week in politics, so let's get right to it.
THE SENATE: Even after the passage of landmark Wall Street Reform last week, most eyes will again be focused on the United States Senate. Tomorrow, the newest Senator, Carte Goodwin of West Virginia, will be sworn into office by Vice President Biden. Soon afterward, the Senate will vote on the long-stalled bill to extend unemployment benefits to those most hurt by the recession. Democrats should finally have the 60 votes necessary to advance the bill. If the Senate passes the House-passed bill unchanged, the President will sign it into law this week, and the benefits will go into effect retroactively.
The Senate will also try to finish a bill providing loans to small businesses, though Republicans have been successful so far in obstructing the bill's consideration.
Over in the committee realm, the Senate Judiciary panel will vote on the nomination of Elena Kagan to be a Supreme Court Justice. Since we've heard pretty much nothing on her nomination since her confirmation hearings a few weeks ago, I expect her to be confirmed quite easily. All 12 Democrats on the committee almost certainly will support her nomination (even former critic Arlen Specter has announced his support). Of the 7 Republicans on the committee, only Lindsay Graham (SC) might cross party lines on Kagan's behalf. A vote in the full Senate is expected during the first week in August.
Majority Leader Reid wants to bring two other important bills up before that time, though I'm certainly skeptical. One bill would be a scaled-down energy bill that focused on investments in clean energy paired with carbon pricing for the utilities sector. Republicans may vote to allow consideration of the bill just so they can highlight their opposition to it, but I don't see any Republicans crossing over to support the legislation during an election year. So far, Democrat Ben Nelson (NE) has already voiced his opposition. The newest West Virginia Senator didn't sound very enthusiastic about the bill either.
Democrats also hoped to move on the House-passed campaign finance bill (the DISCLOSE Act), but with moderate Republicans Brown (MA) and Snowe (ME) in opposition, the bill's chances are looking pretty dim. Thus, with financial reform complete, and the Senate still dealing with constant obstruction and stagnation, we may have seen the last of the major pieces of legislation in the 111th Congress.
THE HOUSE: The House has a much more quiet week, as they continue to await action from their Senate counterparts. After doing suspension bills today and tomorrow, the House will take up a bill that requires the national flood insurance program to enable the purchase of "multiperil" coverage. The House will also take up the unemployment bill if the Senate makes any changes to it.
THE WHITE HOUSE: The President will start the week with a well-timed push for the unemployment insurance extension. Apparently, he will (for the first time in recent memory) tell the stories of real Americans who have been hurt by the Republicans obstruction. He should have been doing this much earlier, so that he could create a narrative about the Republicans only looking out for their wealthy friends, while he is protecting the working man hurt by the recession. Anything he does now might be too late to make a difference in the mind of voters ahead of the election. The President will also meet today with former Senator and astronaut John Glenn (D-OH) to discuss space policy.
Later in the week, the President will sign the financial reform bill into law at a large White House signing ceremony. He also plans to visit Illinois to campaign for the Democrat running for Obama's old Senate seat.
That's it for now, see you this evening.
Monday, July 19, 2010
Thursday, July 15, 2010
The Daily Strike-7/15/10-Check It Off The List
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. This was probably the best day for President Obama in three months. He finally won approval of one of his major legislative priorities, and it appears that oil has finally stopped spilling into the gulf. So I'll try to not be as morbid as I was the past few days.
FINANCIAL REGULATIONS: The Senate today gave final approval to the most sweeping financial reforms since the Great Depression. The culmination of a year-long effort to help prevent another financial crisis is a major victory for President Obama, and cements the 111th Congress as one of the most productive in history, even despite the unprecedented GOP obstruction. In fact, unlike the health care bill, this piece of legislation strengthened over time, with the inclusion of strict derivatives regulation, and more authority for regulators to shut down the biggest banks. The reason that many liberals like myself aren't jumping for joy is that this doesn't signify a fundamental shift in the Obama presidency. Yes, he has accomplished a lot, but he has yet to settle on a compelling governing narrative that proves his devotion to the progressive cause. And most importantly, it's hard to celebrate anything when the jobs situation is as bad as it is.
The bill cleared three separate hurdles today. The vote to cut off debate was 60-38. As expected, Republican Brown (MA), Collins (ME) and Snowe (ME) voted yes, while Democrat Russ Feingold remained steadfast in his opposition from the left. Senator Crapo (ID) did not vote. On the two next votes, to waive Budget Act restrictions, and on final passage, the vote was 60-39, with Crapo (ID) present and voting no. The bill heads to President Obama's desk for his signature, which is expected to take place next week with much pomp and circumstance.
The Senate will swear in the new Democratic Senator from West Virginia when it reconvenes on Tuesday (we still don't know who that will be). Afterwards, they will vote to cut off debate on the unemployment extension bill, which is long overdue. Hopefully work on that bill can be completed by Wednesday, so that the Senate also has time to take up a Small Business Loan measure.
THE HOUSE: The House today passed a bill to reform the flood insurance program. It's about as simple as it sounds, really, though I don't know exactly what the reforms are. The bill passed by an overwhelming margin of 329-90. All opposition, save for Rep. Stupak (MI-remember him?) came from Republicans.
That's it for a short entry tonight. We'll be back on Monday morning.
FINANCIAL REGULATIONS: The Senate today gave final approval to the most sweeping financial reforms since the Great Depression. The culmination of a year-long effort to help prevent another financial crisis is a major victory for President Obama, and cements the 111th Congress as one of the most productive in history, even despite the unprecedented GOP obstruction. In fact, unlike the health care bill, this piece of legislation strengthened over time, with the inclusion of strict derivatives regulation, and more authority for regulators to shut down the biggest banks. The reason that many liberals like myself aren't jumping for joy is that this doesn't signify a fundamental shift in the Obama presidency. Yes, he has accomplished a lot, but he has yet to settle on a compelling governing narrative that proves his devotion to the progressive cause. And most importantly, it's hard to celebrate anything when the jobs situation is as bad as it is.
The bill cleared three separate hurdles today. The vote to cut off debate was 60-38. As expected, Republican Brown (MA), Collins (ME) and Snowe (ME) voted yes, while Democrat Russ Feingold remained steadfast in his opposition from the left. Senator Crapo (ID) did not vote. On the two next votes, to waive Budget Act restrictions, and on final passage, the vote was 60-39, with Crapo (ID) present and voting no. The bill heads to President Obama's desk for his signature, which is expected to take place next week with much pomp and circumstance.
The Senate will swear in the new Democratic Senator from West Virginia when it reconvenes on Tuesday (we still don't know who that will be). Afterwards, they will vote to cut off debate on the unemployment extension bill, which is long overdue. Hopefully work on that bill can be completed by Wednesday, so that the Senate also has time to take up a Small Business Loan measure.
THE HOUSE: The House today passed a bill to reform the flood insurance program. It's about as simple as it sounds, really, though I don't know exactly what the reforms are. The bill passed by an overwhelming margin of 329-90. All opposition, save for Rep. Stupak (MI-remember him?) came from Republicans.
That's it for a short entry tonight. We'll be back on Monday morning.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
The Daily Strike-7/14/10-Democrats in Disarray
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. The title of today's blog entry has been the title to a million articles over the last year, and almost none of them actually showed Democrats in disarray. But today, we see a party truly running around like a bunch of chickens with their heads cut off.
DEMOCRATIC FAMILY FEUD: It all started with a candid, and true, comment from White House Spokesman Robert Gibbs this Sunday. He stated the obvious, that there are enough seats in play for the Republicans to retake the House. House Democrats have made a huge fuss about this comment, thinking that Gibbs gave the Republicans fundraising ammunition. The White House responded by defending themselves, saying that they've done fundraisers for House candidates etc. House Democrats...well...it doesn't really matter. Both entities are at fault for what's going on right now.
Gibbs is right that Republicans have a good shot at retaking the House. The reason is that the economy is in the dumps, and Democratic leaders are just throwing in the towel as the election season approaches. White House Advisor David Axelrod said this weekend that there is "not an appetite" for more jobs bills. Really? Maybe there would be if you DID something about it!! You're the President of the United States. I understand Obama can't control Congress, but he's not making any effort whatsoever on the jobs front right now. Forget what's happened over the last year and a half. The President could have used the recent poor jobs numbers for a renewed massive push for jobs legislation. He could have explained every single day that there are 5 unemployed people per every available job, and that if those people don't have any money, they can't spend at local businesses, which causes the broader economy to suffer. He could threaten to keep Congress in session (as is his power as President) until Congress does something about jobs. But, no. He just wants to stand back and passively say that Congress can't do anything about 10% employment.
House Democrats should similiarly not blame Obama's spokesman. While they have been the far more productive of the two chambers of Congress, many members are running scared, and are consequently hurting their own party. Today, 59 House Democrats sent a, frankly, offensive letter to leadership saying that they won't vote for any non-emergency spending if it doesn't include offsets. They are saying that we can't kick the can down the road anymore when it comes to the national debt. This is not only horrible policy, since we absolutely must spend money now to rescue the economy. It's horrible politics too, and I'll bet you that many of these 59 members will lose their seats because the economy continues to go south come November. There is not a majority in the House to do even basic things to rescue the economy. That is abhorrent to me.
Both sides here need to stop bickering, find their focus, get a sense of renewed purpose, and get to work. It may be too late to do anything meaningful to jumpstart the economy before the election, but it's not too late to try, and it certainly won't help to sit around playing the blame game.
I'll say this though, at least they're not as bad as the United States Senate!
THE SENATE: Speaking of the Senate, the upper chamber will vote tomorrow at 11am on the Financial Reform conference report. The bill will get exactly 60 votes, because Senator Grassley (R-IA), a supporter of the earlier Senate bill, announced his opposition today. The vote should pave the way for President Obama to sign the legislation into law next week.
The Senate spent the day considering a bill to provide loans to small businesses. Senators will presumably begin voting on amendments to that bill tomorrow night.
THE HOUSE: The House passed one piece of substantive legislation today. By a vote of 290-131, the House agreed to a bill that will allow for federal employees to telecommute up to 20 hours per pay period. The bill was a response to this past winter's snowstorms, which caused the federal government to basically shut down for the week. 245 Democrats and 45 Republicans supported the bill, while 2 Democrats and 129 Republicans voted no.
That's it for now, we'll see you tomorrow.
DEMOCRATIC FAMILY FEUD: It all started with a candid, and true, comment from White House Spokesman Robert Gibbs this Sunday. He stated the obvious, that there are enough seats in play for the Republicans to retake the House. House Democrats have made a huge fuss about this comment, thinking that Gibbs gave the Republicans fundraising ammunition. The White House responded by defending themselves, saying that they've done fundraisers for House candidates etc. House Democrats...well...it doesn't really matter. Both entities are at fault for what's going on right now.
Gibbs is right that Republicans have a good shot at retaking the House. The reason is that the economy is in the dumps, and Democratic leaders are just throwing in the towel as the election season approaches. White House Advisor David Axelrod said this weekend that there is "not an appetite" for more jobs bills. Really? Maybe there would be if you DID something about it!! You're the President of the United States. I understand Obama can't control Congress, but he's not making any effort whatsoever on the jobs front right now. Forget what's happened over the last year and a half. The President could have used the recent poor jobs numbers for a renewed massive push for jobs legislation. He could have explained every single day that there are 5 unemployed people per every available job, and that if those people don't have any money, they can't spend at local businesses, which causes the broader economy to suffer. He could threaten to keep Congress in session (as is his power as President) until Congress does something about jobs. But, no. He just wants to stand back and passively say that Congress can't do anything about 10% employment.
House Democrats should similiarly not blame Obama's spokesman. While they have been the far more productive of the two chambers of Congress, many members are running scared, and are consequently hurting their own party. Today, 59 House Democrats sent a, frankly, offensive letter to leadership saying that they won't vote for any non-emergency spending if it doesn't include offsets. They are saying that we can't kick the can down the road anymore when it comes to the national debt. This is not only horrible policy, since we absolutely must spend money now to rescue the economy. It's horrible politics too, and I'll bet you that many of these 59 members will lose their seats because the economy continues to go south come November. There is not a majority in the House to do even basic things to rescue the economy. That is abhorrent to me.
Both sides here need to stop bickering, find their focus, get a sense of renewed purpose, and get to work. It may be too late to do anything meaningful to jumpstart the economy before the election, but it's not too late to try, and it certainly won't help to sit around playing the blame game.
I'll say this though, at least they're not as bad as the United States Senate!
THE SENATE: Speaking of the Senate, the upper chamber will vote tomorrow at 11am on the Financial Reform conference report. The bill will get exactly 60 votes, because Senator Grassley (R-IA), a supporter of the earlier Senate bill, announced his opposition today. The vote should pave the way for President Obama to sign the legislation into law next week.
The Senate spent the day considering a bill to provide loans to small businesses. Senators will presumably begin voting on amendments to that bill tomorrow night.
THE HOUSE: The House passed one piece of substantive legislation today. By a vote of 290-131, the House agreed to a bill that will allow for federal employees to telecommute up to 20 hours per pay period. The bill was a response to this past winter's snowstorms, which caused the federal government to basically shut down for the week. 245 Democrats and 45 Republicans supported the bill, while 2 Democrats and 129 Republicans voted no.
That's it for now, we'll see you tomorrow.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
The Daily Strike-7/13/10-60 Assured
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. I will keep this entry short since I got home more than an hour late and I want to watch the All Star Game. But enough about me!
FINREG: The conference report accompanying the Financial Regulation bill is on the verge of passing this Thursday. Today, Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) was the 60th Senator to publicly declare support for the bill, which will assure that the bill makes it to President Obama's desk next week. Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) filed cloture on the bill, which sets up a vote Thursday afternoon.
I'm excited about this bill's passage, mostly because it represents the first serious regulation of the financial industry since the 1930's. We've been going in the opposite direction ever since. As many other commentators have noted, the bill is designed for us to better handle a future crisis, not so much to prevent one. A lot of the bill's success depends on its implementation. The new consumer protection agency within the Federal Reserve must be bold and ambitious, for example. I'm mostly afraid that a future Republican President will be able to water down these agencies without enough institutional protection in place.
In other Senate news, West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin will announce the replacement to the late Senator Byrd on Friday evening. By next week, this should give the Democrats the votes (hopefully) to pass a much-needed extension of unemployment benefits.
THE WHITE HOUSE: The biggest news today from the White House is that Jacob Lew was selected to be the next Director of the OMB, the same title he held during the later years of the Clinton Administration. This seems like a good choice. Even though correlation certainly doesn't imply causation, Lew presided over the only budget surpluses in the last 40 years.
THE HOUSE: The House just dealt with some suspension bills today, they'll get down to serious legislative business tomorrow.
That's it for now! Comments: Leave them!
FINREG: The conference report accompanying the Financial Regulation bill is on the verge of passing this Thursday. Today, Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) was the 60th Senator to publicly declare support for the bill, which will assure that the bill makes it to President Obama's desk next week. Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) filed cloture on the bill, which sets up a vote Thursday afternoon.
I'm excited about this bill's passage, mostly because it represents the first serious regulation of the financial industry since the 1930's. We've been going in the opposite direction ever since. As many other commentators have noted, the bill is designed for us to better handle a future crisis, not so much to prevent one. A lot of the bill's success depends on its implementation. The new consumer protection agency within the Federal Reserve must be bold and ambitious, for example. I'm mostly afraid that a future Republican President will be able to water down these agencies without enough institutional protection in place.
In other Senate news, West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin will announce the replacement to the late Senator Byrd on Friday evening. By next week, this should give the Democrats the votes (hopefully) to pass a much-needed extension of unemployment benefits.
THE WHITE HOUSE: The biggest news today from the White House is that Jacob Lew was selected to be the next Director of the OMB, the same title he held during the later years of the Clinton Administration. This seems like a good choice. Even though correlation certainly doesn't imply causation, Lew presided over the only budget surpluses in the last 40 years.
THE HOUSE: The House just dealt with some suspension bills today, they'll get down to serious legislative business tomorrow.
That's it for now! Comments: Leave them!
Monday, July 12, 2010
The Daily Strike-7/12/10-FinReg Closer
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. Make sure you get caught up on the week in politics in this morning's Weekly Strike.
THE SENATE: Before I give a brief election update, there is some news to report from the United States Senate, sort of. The financial regulation bill's conference report appears on the verge of passing, which would send the overhaul directly to the President's desk. Two Republicans, Senators Brown (MA) and Snowe (ME) announced that they will support the bill. With the support of Senator Collins (ME), that gives Democrats three sure Republican votes. The Democrats currently control 58 seats, while the vacant seat in West Virginia remains at the whim of Governor Joe Manchin (D). So far, only Senator Feingold has been the only Democrat to voice official opposition to the bill. Today, though, we found out that America's favorite corporate shill, Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) is also on the fence, which would potentially temporarily keep the Democrats from the 60 vote threshold. Nelson says that he has concerns with the power given to the head of the new consumer protection agency. This has been a policy proposal for over a year, he decided to make a fuss about this NOW? Really, Nelson just wants attention from the media and his beloved corporate lobbyists. I think he'll come around after he gets his moment in the spotlight. Even if he doesn't, the new Democratic Senator will be sworn in next week and will presumably push us over the top.
The Senate did take time today to confirm the nomination of Sharon Johnson Coleman to be a District Court Judge in Illinois. Tomorrow, the Senate will continue consideration of a Small Business lending bill.
ELECTION UPDATE: I'll keep this short, because it's pretty depressing. Election 2010 would be a major bloodbath for the Democratic Party if it were held today. Even though the media has focused on voter enthusiasm, candidates, gaffes, and amorphous concerns about the deficit, the real deciding factor this fall will be the state of the economy. If the recovery remains sluggish, and we have no reason to believe it will improve greatly in the next 4 months, the incumbent party (the Democrats) will pay a large price. There is a time and place for a post mortem of how Democrats got into this situation, but I'll save that for another entry. For now, I'll just give my updated predictions.
If the election were held today, the House would be slightly favored to go Republican. The Republicans must gain 39 seats to regain the majority, and if the political climate stays the way it is now, they will have a pretty decent path to get there. I'd put the Republican chances of a House takeover at slightly above 50/50. I will not be changing individual race ratings on my chart (to your right) since I haven't seen much polling in individual districts. We'll go district-by-district when the election season heats up.
The Senate looks slightly more promising, though mostly because the Republicans have picked some truly awful candidates. I am moving three Lean Democrat races to the "Toss Up" column to reflect polls I've seen in the past few weeks in California, Wisconsin and Washington. This moves the tossup list to an unusually high 10. Since the national environment leans Republican, I expect them to take the majority of these tossup states, but not all of them. If they took 7 of the 10 tossup seats, along with 4 Democratic-held seats that they're already favored to win, they will be at 49 seats, just short of the majority. If they win 9 or 10 of the tossup seats, they'll regain the majority. I'd put the odds of that at about 25%.
As far as Governor's races go, Democrats are in for an old-style Texas whooping. Because of a slew of termed out Democratic governors, and the national political environment, I expect Democrats to lose a net of around 7-8 state houses, which will hurt our efforts during the 2011 redistricting process.
I wish I could bring you more promising news, but alas, things are looking pretty nasty out there. I will change these predictions as events merit.
THE SENATE: Before I give a brief election update, there is some news to report from the United States Senate, sort of. The financial regulation bill's conference report appears on the verge of passing, which would send the overhaul directly to the President's desk. Two Republicans, Senators Brown (MA) and Snowe (ME) announced that they will support the bill. With the support of Senator Collins (ME), that gives Democrats three sure Republican votes. The Democrats currently control 58 seats, while the vacant seat in West Virginia remains at the whim of Governor Joe Manchin (D). So far, only Senator Feingold has been the only Democrat to voice official opposition to the bill. Today, though, we found out that America's favorite corporate shill, Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) is also on the fence, which would potentially temporarily keep the Democrats from the 60 vote threshold. Nelson says that he has concerns with the power given to the head of the new consumer protection agency. This has been a policy proposal for over a year, he decided to make a fuss about this NOW? Really, Nelson just wants attention from the media and his beloved corporate lobbyists. I think he'll come around after he gets his moment in the spotlight. Even if he doesn't, the new Democratic Senator will be sworn in next week and will presumably push us over the top.
The Senate did take time today to confirm the nomination of Sharon Johnson Coleman to be a District Court Judge in Illinois. Tomorrow, the Senate will continue consideration of a Small Business lending bill.
ELECTION UPDATE: I'll keep this short, because it's pretty depressing. Election 2010 would be a major bloodbath for the Democratic Party if it were held today. Even though the media has focused on voter enthusiasm, candidates, gaffes, and amorphous concerns about the deficit, the real deciding factor this fall will be the state of the economy. If the recovery remains sluggish, and we have no reason to believe it will improve greatly in the next 4 months, the incumbent party (the Democrats) will pay a large price. There is a time and place for a post mortem of how Democrats got into this situation, but I'll save that for another entry. For now, I'll just give my updated predictions.
If the election were held today, the House would be slightly favored to go Republican. The Republicans must gain 39 seats to regain the majority, and if the political climate stays the way it is now, they will have a pretty decent path to get there. I'd put the Republican chances of a House takeover at slightly above 50/50. I will not be changing individual race ratings on my chart (to your right) since I haven't seen much polling in individual districts. We'll go district-by-district when the election season heats up.
The Senate looks slightly more promising, though mostly because the Republicans have picked some truly awful candidates. I am moving three Lean Democrat races to the "Toss Up" column to reflect polls I've seen in the past few weeks in California, Wisconsin and Washington. This moves the tossup list to an unusually high 10. Since the national environment leans Republican, I expect them to take the majority of these tossup states, but not all of them. If they took 7 of the 10 tossup seats, along with 4 Democratic-held seats that they're already favored to win, they will be at 49 seats, just short of the majority. If they win 9 or 10 of the tossup seats, they'll regain the majority. I'd put the odds of that at about 25%.
As far as Governor's races go, Democrats are in for an old-style Texas whooping. Because of a slew of termed out Democratic governors, and the national political environment, I expect Democrats to lose a net of around 7-8 state houses, which will hurt our efforts during the 2011 redistricting process.
I wish I could bring you more promising news, but alas, things are looking pretty nasty out there. I will change these predictions as events merit.
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