Monday, March 1, 2010

The Weekly Strike-3/1-3/7

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. Please excuse my negligence on Friday night. I had just ended a long car trip. What did I miss?

-The Senate is being held hostage by a one Jim Bunning (R-KY). Democrats tried to pass an extension of unemployment and COBRA benefits by unanimous consent, but Bunning repeatedly objected. Inexplicably, Democrats basically gave up their fight midday, and thus, unemployment benefits will expire for millions of Americans this morning. Democrats will be forced to go through the arduous process of breaking cloture and scheduling a vote on the bill, which will hopefully happen by the end of the week.

-The House passed a bill authorizing intelligence programs by a vote of 235-168. Democrats tried to sneak in a provision that would allow for the prosecution of torture, but they were forced to remove it when confronted by lawmakers of both parties, and unfortunately, the White House. 9 liberal Democrats voted against the bill, along with all but one House Republican. Apparently, there wasn't enough pro-torture stuff in there.

Now, we return to the present.

THE WHITE HOUSE: The President's week begins this morning with a speech to the U.S. Chamber of Conference about education. The speech relates to the " America's Promise Alliance" founded by Colin and Alma Powell. The President spends the rest of the day meeting with various cabinet secretaries.

On Wednesday, the President will announce his proposed way forward on health care reform. If I were a betting man, I would guess that he would endorse the idea of the House passing the Senate bill, followed by a package of fixes to be passed via reconciliation. Democrats face challenges mustering up votes for this proposal in both chambers, though for once the effort in the House seems a bit tougher. In the Senate, since the package of fixes will be a reconciliation bill, Democrats can afford to lose 9 of their own members if Vice President Biden breaks a tie. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has to cope with a large portion of her caucus that is nervous about reelection prospects, and that for some reason thinks voting against health care will save their political careers. The original House bill passed 220-215. Since that time, three House members have retired (2 Democrats and 1 Republican, which we'll discuss below), and John Murtha passed away. Therefore, Pelosi needs 216 votes to round up a majority. We'll be closely following the Speaker's efforts to whip her members.

THE HOUSE: Speaking of the House, they have a pretty busy week on tap. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the House will vote on a series of suspension bills. On Thursday, the House will consider a bill to "prevent and reduce the use of physical restraint and seclusion in schools, and for other purposes." The bill would impose minimum federal standards to protect public school children from being physically restrained or put in seclusion by school personnel. Sounds like a good idea to me. There is an exception written into the bill if there is a situation that presents an imminent danger. I imagine this would be a Columbine-like incident that would necessitate students being quarantined in classrooms.

The House is also likely to pass the Senate's modest $15 billion jobs bill. Liberal Democrats have threatened to withhold their support because they don't think the bill is big enough. I agree that the bill isn't big enough, but they must pass this bill to get the jobs agenda rolling. The bill passed the Senate last week with strong bipartisan support.

THE SENATE: The Senate will begin consideration of a package of tax-break extenders that will include the aforementioned extensions of unemployment and COBRA benefits. No votes are scheduled on the bill, but I expect something to be passed by midweek. The House would probably approve these extensions late Thursday and send the bill to the President.

The Senate does have a vote scheduled tomorrow on the nomination of Barbara Keenan to be a U.S. Circuit Court Judge. I don't know anything about her, which leads me to believe that her nomination shouldn't be terribly controversial.

ELECTION UPDATES: As we hinted above, another member of Congress is stepping down in the middle of his term. Rep. Nathan Deal (R-GA) is retiring this week to focus on his run for Governor. Democratic Reps. Abercrombie (HI) and Wexler (FL) have already stepped down to pursue other ventures. With John Murtha's death, that leaves four vacancies in the House that must be filled through a special election. I expect the only competitive race would be for Murtha's seat, a swing district in Pennsylvania.

Also over the weekend, another Republican announced his retirement. This time, it was John Linder (GA). Overall, 20 Republicans are retiring, as opposed to just 15 Democrats. This seems pretty counter-intuitive given the dire predictions for Democrats this fall.

On the Senate side, this morning Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter announced that he will challenge incumbent Blanche Lincoln in the primary. This is great news for Washington Democrats. So far, Lincoln has only been challenged on the far-right. She has been forced to take more conservative positions on issues. Now she'll be getting pressure from both the left and the right. I currently rate Lincoln's prospects for reelection very low. (See rankings on the right side of your screen).

That's it for this morning. Please leave us some comments!

Thursday, February 25, 2010

The Daily Strike-2/25/10-The Health Care Summit

Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. Today was a quite a spectacle. I don't think we would have ever seen President Bush engaged in an unscripted event with his Democratic counterparts for 6 hours. It certainly gave us a lot to swallow.

SUMMIT: The President hosted members of Congress from both parties today in a high-stakes health care reform summit. The summit, as expected, did not lead to any breakthroughs. The fundamentals of the debate remain the same. Most Democrats want a bill to pass in some form but are politically fearful of the consequences. Republicans don't want a bill to pass and are giddy about the political ramifications.

The summit did have some usefulness, however. The public got some clarity as to the deep ideological divide between the two parties. Democrats want to expand access to insurance by having the government give assistance to low-and-middle income Americans. Republicans do not. Democrats want to regulate the insurance industry so that people are not abused and are guaranteed fair minimum benefits. Republicans believe that regulation of the insurance industry is detrimental, and that defining minimum benefits is "government intrusion." Democrats believe in solving big problems with comprehensive pieces of legislation. Republicans want "piecemeal," small reform packages because they are distrustful of government. I don't mean to oversimplify things, but I do think that these fundamental differences became crystal clear after today's session.

The summit also gave the President a chance to confront his critics directly. One of the main problems for Democrats during this debate is that Republicans repeat false memes (death panels, government takeover, higher premiums etc) so much that they become ingrained the public's mind. Today, President Obama was able to address these falsehoods head-on. Here are some highlights:

-The meeting got underway with a great exchange between Obama and Republican Senator Lamar Alexander. Alexander falsely claimed that the Congressional Budget Office said that the Senate bill would raise premiums. The CBO actually said that for those who get insurance through their employers, the price of insurance would stay the same or would be slightly lower. For those getting insurance through the individual market, people would pay more for insurance because they would be getting far better services. The value of insurance, therefore, would be much greater. Also, they would be spending more money on insurance largely because they would be spending government subsidies. Obama repeatedly told Alexander that his contention was just not true. It was good to see that charge rebutted.

-We got a little 2008 election redux when the President sparred with John McCain. McCain, like many other speakers, talked about the process rather than the policy. When McCain mentioned President Obama's promise to televise negotiations on CSPAN (see the irony?), Obama sharply reminded McCain that the campaign was over. McCain seemed like he was bubbling with anger (as he often does). I should also mention that many Democrats very wisely reminded viewers that the focus should NOT be on process. Americans don't care about process, they want results. Oftentimes, we forget why we are doing this: to give people health security and to save people's lives Who cares about the reconciliation process?

-The President called out House Minority Whip Eric Cantor for using the giant 2,400 page bill as a prop. Obama reminded Cantor that we can pretend that these issues aren't complicated but they are. Obama also chided House Minority Leader/Attack Dog John Boehner for spewing out talking points.

I don't think today's event changes much. Ultimately, health care is in the hands of 218 House Democrats and 50 Senate Democrats (if the Democrats pass legislative fixes to the Senate bill through reconciliation). The President was able to show the American people that he was willing to engage with his opponents. He also told Republicans that there were areas of compromise, like more tort reform. Republicans offered zero concessions of their own. I don't think enough people who are on the fence on health care really tuned into this event. I'll be interested to see if the summit has any effect on health care polling.

If you want to read some great material on today's event, as always I recommend Ezra Klein's blog. He delves into some of the GOP's talking points.

THE HOUSE: While Congressional leaders were at the White House summit, it was still a pretty busy day on the hill. The House began debate on an Intelligence Authorization bill, and went through several amendments. Consideration of the bill has come to a temporary standstill, because Democrats tried to insert an amendment that would allow punishment for intelligence officials who torture detainees. Republicans were outraged that the provision was put in the manager's amendment. It looks like the bill will be pushed to next week. The bill sets intelligence policies for the rest of the fiscal year which ends at the end of this September.

The House also voted to extend various expiring provisions of the USA Patriot Act through the beginning of next year. The Senate approved these extensions by unanimous consent last night. The House approved the bill by a vote of 315-97. 87 Democrats and 10 libertarian-leaning Republicans voted no.

THE SENATE: The Senate passed a bill tonight to encourage international tourism into the United States. The bill is a pet project of Majority Leader Reid, who wants to help his constituent businesses in Las Vegas. The Senate passed a different tourism bill last year, but the bill changed when it got to the House of Representatives. The House sent this new bill to the Senate late last year. The Senate first voted to cut off debate on the bill by a vote of 76-20, with all no votes coming from Republicans. Republican Senator DeMint (SC) tried to introduce a non-related amendment relating to the designation of national monuments, but his effort was stymied by a vote of 38-58. Senators Nelson (NE) and Tester (MT) voted with the GOP, and Republicans Collins (ME), Gregg (NH) and Snowe (ME) voted with the Democrats. The bill itself was approved by a vote of 78-18. It will now go to President Obama for his signature.

Senator Reid tried to gain unanimous consent to extend unemployment and COBRA benefits for 30 days while the Senate worked out a long-term extension. Republican nihilist Jim Bunning (KY) objected to the request because he wanted the extension to be paid for with other spending cuts. Reid even offered Bunning a chance to offer an amendment to offset the objection, but Bunning was apparently only interested in making a political point at the expense of millions of struggling Americans. The Senate will have to consider the bill early next week.

That's it for a busy day. We'll see you again tomorrow! Leave some comments/thoughts on the health summit!

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

The Daily Strike-2/24/10-Baby Steps

Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. There haven't been many good legislative days for Democrats recently, but today was one of then.

JOBS: Today, the United States Senate passed a modest jobs bill by a vote of 70-28. The bill won't create very many jobs because it's not very big, but it is a symbolic victory for Democrats that they could get anything passed in the Senate that will remotely help people in the short-run. Also amazing, is that the bill passed with strong bipartisan support. Every Democrat besides the increasingly idiotic Ben Nelson (NE) voted for the bill, as did Republicans Bond (MO), Brown (MA), Burr (NC), Cochran (MS), Collins (ME), Hatch (UT), Inhofe (OK), LeMieux (FL), Murkowski (AK), Snowe (ME) and Wicker (MS). That list includes some very conservative Republicans. What is absolutely baffling to me is that Burr, Cochran, Hatch, Inhofe, LeMieux, Murkowski and Wicker voted the other day to filibuster the bill, but then ended up voting for it. This is example number 23534235982305 of why the Senate is horrible. These Senators are verifiably supportive of the bill, yet they still wanted to torpedo it for some reason.

Prior to a vote on final passage, the Senate voted 62-34 to subvert Senate rules that require new spending to be offset. Bond, Brown, Collins, Inhofe and Snowe voted with Democrats to subvert the rules. Ben Nelson, once again, voted against his own party.

The bill includes a payroll tax holiday for small business, an extension of highway funding, and infrastructure bonds for states. It's possible that the House will approve this Senate bill in the next week or so, and send it along to President Obama. Even though the bill is a sorry excuse for a jobs measure, the House should vote for it just to give Obama a much-needed political victory.

Late in the day, Majority Leader Reid tried to get a an extension of unemployment and COBRA benefits passed by unanimous consent. Retiring Republican Senator Jim Bunning (KY) objected to the request, meaning that the bill will have to be put through the arduous cloture process. Maybe it will pass by next Wednesday?

Reid did succeed in passing a one-year extension to the USA PATRIOT Act. I don't think anybody wants to alter a piece of legislation like that during an election year.

THE HOUSE: Not to be outdone by their friends in the other body, the House also got some work done today. By an overwhelming margin of 406-19, the House voted to remove the anti-trust exemption enjoyed by health insurance companies. All no votes came from Republicans. The exemption was granted in the 1950's to make it easier for state health insurance commissioners to make their own regulatory decisions, but it has allowed insurance companies to have a virtual monopoly in many regions of the country. Policy wonks don't think that removing this exemption will do much to bring down the price of insurance. I frankly don't know too much about this particular issue. But Democrats were smart to take a potshot at the insurance industry as they try to complete a comprehensive health reform bill. The insurance industry is especially vulnerable after it was discovered that Anthem raised insurance rates by 30% in California.

It was also politically smart to force Republicans to either support a piece of Democratic legislation, or risk being accused of being pawns for the insurance industry. Let's just say, it was the perfect occasion for a speech like this.

HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The President, as you know, will host a bipartisan health care summit. The President plans to attend all 6 hours of the meeting, which will be nationally televised. We will have complete coverage of the summit tomorrow. I'll be interested to see if there are any made-for-TV moments that make one or the other side look bad. Because of course, it's not important all whether or not 30 million Americans get health insurance. It just matters who wins a 6 hour dog and pony show!

That's it for tonight. We'll see you tomorrow!

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

The Daily Strike-2/23/10-Crashing the Summit

Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. Health care is heating up again as the key political issue. Lucky, us.

HEALTH CARE: We are two days away from the White House health care summit. This event will feature members of Congress from both parties, though it is mostly a chance for President Obama to flex his muscles toward fellow Democrats. Republicans have said that they will go to the summit with the intention of "crashing the President's taxpayer-funded PR blitz." Obviously, they couldn't possibly come to the forum with any ideas of their own besides "scrap the bill." It's just so glaringly obvious that they are nihilists. After months of making a huge deal about how long the bill is, Republican House Leader John Boehner now says that the President's proposal is "shorter than a comic book." I'm not sure whether the President thinks it's good politics to have the Republicans at this meeting, but it's like inviting four-year old children to a corporate board meeting.

I'm glad the President released a serious proposal on Monday that will help bring this process to a successful conclusion. But his performance on this issue remains deeply disappointing.

Over the past several weeks, Democrats have realized that as long as they are passing fixes to the Senate health bill through the filibuster-proof reconciliation process, they might as well try to get the public option. Senate Democrats, led by Freshman Michael Bennet (CO), have circulated a letter calling on Senator Reid to include the public option in the bill. Today, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said that the President would not push for the public option because he didn't believe they had the votes. This makes absolutely no sense. If they don't have the votes, why don't they at least TRY to get the votes for the most popular element of an unpopular bill? Why don't they use this opportunity to motivate their dispirited base? It doesn't make any sense to me.

Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office says that they will not submit a price estimate until next week. Once the estimate is in, we'll have a better idea whether the President's plan will fly with House and Senate Democrats. Even if they use the reconciliation process, Democrats will be facing some nail biting votes.

JOBS BILL: It looks like the Senate will be able to pass the $15 billion jobs bill tomorrow. The Senate will vote on whether to do away with pay-as-you-go budgeting rules (subject to 60 votes), and then they will vote on final passage. If Monday night's test vote is any indication, Majority Leader Reid (NV) will have successfully gotten a bill passed for once.

House Majority Leader Hoyer hasn't yet decided whether the House will simply vote to approve the Senate jobs bill. In my opinion, they should. This bill won't do much, but it's time that Democrats have some legislative accomplishments to go home and brag about.

THE HOUSE: The House dealt with some suspension bills during the day today. Right now, they are considering a bill to
provide a process for the recognition by the United States of the Native Hawaiian governing entity. This bill is sponsored by Rep. Neil Abercrombie (HI), who will be resigning his seat in the House shortly to run for Governor. I expect the bill to pass late tonight or tomorrow. The House is considering a number of amendments this evening.

That's it for tonight. See you tomorrow!

Monday, February 22, 2010

The Daily Strike-2/28/10-Jobs Test Vote

Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. Make sure you catch this morning's entry to learn about the President's new health care proposal. We can confirm that the proposal is intended to be a package of fixes to the Senate bill. If the Democrats can't get a Republican vote, they intend to move the package of fixes through reconciliation. For a great rundown of what is in the compromise bill, see this graph by the great Igor Volsky. The thing I'm most disappointed in is that the White House has abandoned the idea of a national health insurance exchange in favor of state exchanges.

JOBS VOTE: Any time the Senate does anything these days, there should be a major celebration. Today, the Senate voted 62-30 to begin debate on a $15 billion jobs bill, the contents of which we wrote about this morning. The bill is chalked full of Republican ideas, like a tax holiday for small businesses and money for the highway fund. Yet, only 5 Republicans voted to advance the bill. Two of them, Senators Bond (MO) and Voinovich (OH) are retiring. The other Republicans who voted to advance to the bill are Snowe (ME), Collins and Brown (MA) (!). It looks like Mr. Scott Brown may fall out of favor with conservatives quicker than we thought. Senator Ben Nelson, who somehow still calls himself a Democrat, voted against debating the bill. 7 Republican Senators and the ailing Senator Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) did not vote.

The bill will be debated in the next couple of days, and will likely pass in the next couple of days. There is no word yet on whether there will be any amendments. At the very least, this modest jobs bill has a very realistic shot of becoming law in the near future. Perhaps this will get the President some momentum to enact bigger, more substantive jobs measures.

THE HOUSE: The House came back into session today to consider a couple of suspension bills. They will do more of the same tomorrow. See this morning's entry for more information on this week's House schedule.

That's it for tonight. See you tomorrow! Leave comments!