Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike where we preview the week in politics. With unemployment still hovering around 10%, with health care hanging in the balance, and with the rest of Obama's legislative agenda seemingly on the back burner, Congress will be taking the week off. That means there is much less for me to write about. That's a good thing, because I happen to enjoy the Winter Olympics, unlike The Big Picture, who couldn't care less. Maybe he can write an entry this week.
THE WHITE HOUSE: Remember back in December how we identified three major issues that would dominate the President's plate that month? Those issues were jobs, health care and Afghanistan. It turns out, we've made very little progress on any of those issues, but each of them is now back in the forefront.
The White House has its eye on a Senate vote next Monday to limit debate on a scaled down jobs package. Last week, Majority Leader Reid put the breaks on a Senate Finance Committee compromise jobs bill that had bipartisan support. Reid correctly believed that the compromise legislation had too many legislative goodies to attract Republicans, like a permanent cut in the estate and gift taxes. The scaled down bill is far too minuscule to have any real impact on the jobs situation. The bill consists of a payroll tax holiday for small businesses that hire new workers, increased funding for infrastructure bonds, and an extension of the highway bill. The White House really needs the bill to pass though, just so they can get a little momentum for a broader jobs agenda. The question is whether Democrats can get that necessary 1 Republican to advance the bill. It is possible that by pulling the rug from under the Finance Committee negotiations, Leader Reid has angered the Republican conference enough that they won't support a bill full of Republican-friendly provisions. That, and the fact that Republicans want good legislation to fail to help their own political cause, make me think that Monday's vote could be dangerously close. The White House might need to twist some arms during this week's recess to make it happen.
On the health care front, the White House is preparing for a February 25th bipartisan summit at the White House. The meeting is ostensibly to see if there can be any sort of bipartisan breakthrough. That's not going to happen. Republicans are saying that they'll only be active participants if Democrats scrap the current bills. The best thing that can come out of this summit is that nervous Democrats can tell their constituents that they tried to be bipartisan and transparent, but the Republicans were unwilling to come to the table. This argument didn't exactly work too well after the Senate Finance Committee's "bipartisan" effort broke down. I'm not sure it will work so well after next week's summit. I'm still of the belief that Congress needs to get over itself and "pass the damn bill." When you hear stories about how Anthem Blue Cross in California is about to hike insurance rates by 39%, we're reminded about how this is not a game. This bill is about saving lives. It's time that the House pass the Senate bill, and that both chambers pass fixes through the reconciliation process.
As for Afghanistan, the U.S. has launched its first major offensive on the Taliban since Obama's troop escalation came into effect. The U.S., with its NATO allies, is currently launching an air and ground assault on Marja, a Taliban stronghold. I don't know enough about this to know whether the offensive will be effective, so I'll just say a couple of things. One, at the very least we are embarking on this offensive with a reasonably large group of NATO allies. And two, I hope this isn't a case of whack-a-mole, where we continue to attack Taliban strongholds, and the Taliban just moves somewhere else.
ELECTIONS UPDATE: After we signed off last Thursday, we learned that Rhode Island Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D), son of Ted, is retiring. With his retirement, it is likely that there will be no members of the Kennedy clan in the 112th Congress. I find this deeply depressing. Patrick Kennedy has had trouble with alcohol abuse, and his time in rehab over the past couple of years has made him less of an effective Congressman. I expect his district to stay in Democratic hands, though with the current national environment the way it is, I wouldn't be surprised to see Republicans competitive.
That's it for now. It's a holiday today, so we're not expecting much news. Therefore, we'll skip tonight's entry and see you all tomorrow.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Thursday, February 11, 2010
The Daily Strike-2/11/10-Another De-Bauc-Le
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. For the first time in a week, I will have work tomorrow. Awesome. I hopefully will be cured of my cabin fever.
JOBS BILL: Midday today, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) announced a deal on a bipartisan jobs package. The package was to have included everything in Majority Leader Reid's original package (tax credits for small businesses, money for the Highway Trust Fund, extension of tax credits etc.), but it also would have included some absurd tax cuts to win over Republican members. Among the tax cuts in the compromise agreement were a permanent fix in the estate tax and gift tax. These tax cuts will exclusively benefit the rich and would do absolutely nothing to create jobs. Baucus and Grassley seemed so proud of themselves for creating a bipartisan package, that they didn't quite seem to care what was in the bill.
Luckily this afternoon, Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) announced that the finance committee package will not be the official Senate jobs bill. Instead, Democrats will pursue a scaled-back bill with highway bonds, provisions that make it easier for small businesses to write off expenses, the aforementioned small business tax credits and a one year extension of the highway act. The Senate is expected to take up a separate measure later that will extend expiring tax provisions, COBRA, and unemployment insurance. Senator Reid has filed cloture on the bill. A vote to end debate (subject, of course, to the 60 vote threshold) will take place on Monday, the 22nd.
The question now is whether Reid will get the one Republican vote he needs to move this package forward. In a vacuum, it would seem like a small jobs package focused mostly on tax cuts would gain broad Republican support. Though most commentators ignore the obvious fact: Republicans don't want Democratic efforts to succeed, and they are in absolutely no room to compromise. This will be another one of those times that Democrats will have to grovel at the feet of Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. If the GOP does oppose this bill en masse, the Democrats need to call them out publicly for opposing a package full of their own ideas.
Meanwhile, even Reid's Senate bill will do far too little to spur job creation. The bill will not contain truly stimulative measures like investments in public works and aid to bankrupt state and local governments. This is yet another sign of how difficult it will be this year to enact any sort of meaningful legislative agenda without using the reconciliation process for almost everything (which Democrats should do!).
ECONOMIC REPORT: The White House has released its official economic report for 2010. The picture is not rosy. The White House is projecting unemployment around 10 percent for the rest of the year without a new jobs package. The White House is even a little bullish on job growth. They are projecting that 95,000 jobs will be created per month during 2010. That would be great, if it were true. The White House also expects the savings rate to increase, which will cause problems with aggregate demand. The White House wants to create more demand with investment in infrastructure and exports. The Senate might get around to addressing these problems....well....never. Ugh.
ELECTIONS UPDATE: Since we last updated, there have been a few more retirements in the House. On the GOP side, Rep. Vern Ehlers (MI) is retiring from his swing district in Michigan. The district went evenly for Obama and McCain in 2008. I'm giving the GOP the advantage, though, in this race considering the district's Republican history and the current political climate. In Florida, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart is retiring from his south Florida district. His brother Mario, a Congressmen in a nearby district, is going to run for his brother's seat. For those of you keeping score at home, that would make Mario Diaz-Balart's district the true open district. These districts are heavily Cuban, and tilt conservative, but with the right candidate, Democrats could potentially be competitive.
On the Democratic side, longtime California Rep. Diane Watson is retiring. She has been a staunch progressive advocated and an anti-war stalwart. She will be missed. Her district went about 90% for Obama, so there's nothing for us to worry about there. We have updated our rankings on the right side of your screen to reflect these changes.
That's it for today. We will be back tomorrow. Ta ta!
JOBS BILL: Midday today, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) announced a deal on a bipartisan jobs package. The package was to have included everything in Majority Leader Reid's original package (tax credits for small businesses, money for the Highway Trust Fund, extension of tax credits etc.), but it also would have included some absurd tax cuts to win over Republican members. Among the tax cuts in the compromise agreement were a permanent fix in the estate tax and gift tax. These tax cuts will exclusively benefit the rich and would do absolutely nothing to create jobs. Baucus and Grassley seemed so proud of themselves for creating a bipartisan package, that they didn't quite seem to care what was in the bill.
Luckily this afternoon, Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) announced that the finance committee package will not be the official Senate jobs bill. Instead, Democrats will pursue a scaled-back bill with highway bonds, provisions that make it easier for small businesses to write off expenses, the aforementioned small business tax credits and a one year extension of the highway act. The Senate is expected to take up a separate measure later that will extend expiring tax provisions, COBRA, and unemployment insurance. Senator Reid has filed cloture on the bill. A vote to end debate (subject, of course, to the 60 vote threshold) will take place on Monday, the 22nd.
The question now is whether Reid will get the one Republican vote he needs to move this package forward. In a vacuum, it would seem like a small jobs package focused mostly on tax cuts would gain broad Republican support. Though most commentators ignore the obvious fact: Republicans don't want Democratic efforts to succeed, and they are in absolutely no room to compromise. This will be another one of those times that Democrats will have to grovel at the feet of Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. If the GOP does oppose this bill en masse, the Democrats need to call them out publicly for opposing a package full of their own ideas.
Meanwhile, even Reid's Senate bill will do far too little to spur job creation. The bill will not contain truly stimulative measures like investments in public works and aid to bankrupt state and local governments. This is yet another sign of how difficult it will be this year to enact any sort of meaningful legislative agenda without using the reconciliation process for almost everything (which Democrats should do!).
ECONOMIC REPORT: The White House has released its official economic report for 2010. The picture is not rosy. The White House is projecting unemployment around 10 percent for the rest of the year without a new jobs package. The White House is even a little bullish on job growth. They are projecting that 95,000 jobs will be created per month during 2010. That would be great, if it were true. The White House also expects the savings rate to increase, which will cause problems with aggregate demand. The White House wants to create more demand with investment in infrastructure and exports. The Senate might get around to addressing these problems....well....never. Ugh.
ELECTIONS UPDATE: Since we last updated, there have been a few more retirements in the House. On the GOP side, Rep. Vern Ehlers (MI) is retiring from his swing district in Michigan. The district went evenly for Obama and McCain in 2008. I'm giving the GOP the advantage, though, in this race considering the district's Republican history and the current political climate. In Florida, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart is retiring from his south Florida district. His brother Mario, a Congressmen in a nearby district, is going to run for his brother's seat. For those of you keeping score at home, that would make Mario Diaz-Balart's district the true open district. These districts are heavily Cuban, and tilt conservative, but with the right candidate, Democrats could potentially be competitive.
On the Democratic side, longtime California Rep. Diane Watson is retiring. She has been a staunch progressive advocated and an anti-war stalwart. She will be missed. Her district went about 90% for Obama, so there's nothing for us to worry about there. We have updated our rankings on the right side of your screen to reflect these changes.
That's it for today. We will be back tomorrow. Ta ta!
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
The Daily Strike-2/10/10-Out of Commission
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. It's hard to do much when you can barely go outside. That goes for me, and for politicians and Washington. Therefore, there's really nothing to write about tonight. Plus, I barely have internet access, so I don't exactly have the means for an insightful entry. For those back east, stay inside, enjoy the time off, and try not to get cabin fever. See you tomorrow!
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
The Daily Strike-2/9/10-Jobs, Baby.
Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. The DC area continues to be paralyzed with winter weather. We could be getting another foot or so of snow in the next 24 hours. In fact, I have to go out on my freezing porch to even get internet access! The House has cancelled votes for the week, and the Senate 's schedule is in question. It was a perfect setup for the Washington Post's Tom Toles.
JOBS: The Senate is on the cusp of reaching agreement on a jobs bill. The bill is, quite frankly, pretty meager and disappointing, though it is still better than nothing. The bill will contain four components, according to an article by our good friends at Open Left.
1. A tax credit, proposed by Senators Schumer (NY) and Hatch (UT) for small businesses that hire new workers.
2. So-called "build American Bonds" which help state and local governments borrow more money. This is a very important provision given that so many states have had to lay off workers. I wish there was far more aid to states in this bill.
3. An extension of various expiring tax cuts.
4. About $20 billion for the highway trust fund.
The jobs bill that passed the House back in December was much stronger. It had far more money for infrastructure and greater aid to states. But the new reality is that Democrats will need the support of one Republican in order for this thing to pass. Republicans are in no mood to compromise, so doing anything more progressive would be virtually impossible. Welcome to politics in 2010.
THE SENATE: The Senate (at least some of it) was actually in Washington for a couple of votes this afternoon. The first vote was on the nomination of Joseph A. Greenway to be a Circuit Court Judge. His nomination was agreed to unanimously by a vote of 84-0. The next vote was a major disappointment for progressives. Craig Becker, the nominee to be a member of the National Labor Relations Board, did not get the 60 votes needed to advance. Becker was opposed unanimously by Republicans, who did not agree with his modestly pro-organized labor views. The final vote was 52-33, with 15 Senators not showing up to vote. Unfortunately, cloture requires 3/5ths of all those duly chosen and sworn, not those present and voting. Democrats Ben Nelson (NE) and Blanche Lincoln (AR) voted against the nomination. Lincoln is trying to tack hard to the right in what is an increasingly impossible reelection fight, and her state is a "right-to-work" anti-union state. Nelson is just, well, Nelson.
This was the first vote for newly sworn-in Senator Scott Brown (R-MA). He voted no with the rest of his Republican colleagues.
That's it for right now. The snow in the nation's capital will keep this a quiet week in politics. We'll be back tomorrow, if we have power that is.
JOBS: The Senate is on the cusp of reaching agreement on a jobs bill. The bill is, quite frankly, pretty meager and disappointing, though it is still better than nothing. The bill will contain four components, according to an article by our good friends at Open Left.
1. A tax credit, proposed by Senators Schumer (NY) and Hatch (UT) for small businesses that hire new workers.
2. So-called "build American Bonds" which help state and local governments borrow more money. This is a very important provision given that so many states have had to lay off workers. I wish there was far more aid to states in this bill.
3. An extension of various expiring tax cuts.
4. About $20 billion for the highway trust fund.
The jobs bill that passed the House back in December was much stronger. It had far more money for infrastructure and greater aid to states. But the new reality is that Democrats will need the support of one Republican in order for this thing to pass. Republicans are in no mood to compromise, so doing anything more progressive would be virtually impossible. Welcome to politics in 2010.
THE SENATE: The Senate (at least some of it) was actually in Washington for a couple of votes this afternoon. The first vote was on the nomination of Joseph A. Greenway to be a Circuit Court Judge. His nomination was agreed to unanimously by a vote of 84-0. The next vote was a major disappointment for progressives. Craig Becker, the nominee to be a member of the National Labor Relations Board, did not get the 60 votes needed to advance. Becker was opposed unanimously by Republicans, who did not agree with his modestly pro-organized labor views. The final vote was 52-33, with 15 Senators not showing up to vote. Unfortunately, cloture requires 3/5ths of all those duly chosen and sworn, not those present and voting. Democrats Ben Nelson (NE) and Blanche Lincoln (AR) voted against the nomination. Lincoln is trying to tack hard to the right in what is an increasingly impossible reelection fight, and her state is a "right-to-work" anti-union state. Nelson is just, well, Nelson.
This was the first vote for newly sworn-in Senator Scott Brown (R-MA). He voted no with the rest of his Republican colleagues.
That's it for right now. The snow in the nation's capital will keep this a quiet week in politics. We'll be back tomorrow, if we have power that is.
Monday, February 8, 2010
The Weekly Strike-2/8-2/14
Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike. DC is still digging out from its historic snowstorm, so politics has been pushed to the back burner for a couple of days. It looks like we might get 10+ more inches of snow on top of the two feet we got over the weekend. 1 day work week anyone?
THE WHITE HOUSE: The President appears to have a new strategy for health reform. Under increasing pressure from members of his own party to move the ball forward, the President has invited members of both parties to a summit at the White House on February 25th. He will be
feeding cat nip to the media by televising the event. The thought is, if Obama can go toe to toe with his political foes, he can a) say he made one last bipartisan outreach and b) put in a performance on par with his "question time" event with the House GOP last month. GOP leaders praised the President's move, but basically indicated that he would have to scrap the current plans for Republicans to get involved at all. I don't think President Obama is proposing this meeting with any intention of locking up Republican votes. He is doing this to re-frame the debate, to let lawmakers air their grievances in public, and to buy time while House and Senate Democrats come up with a legislative endgame. I'll reserve judgment on this strategy until I see that it lights a fire under reticent Congressional Democrats. I have the same feelings I had since the day Scott Brown ended the Democrats 60-vote majority: the House needs to pass the Senate bill, and both chambers need to approve changes via reconciliation. Get it done!
There is not much on the President's public schedule this week, and things in the District are still very uncertain because of the weather. It's still unclear whether the Federal Government will be open before Friday. Wow.
THE HOUSE: We got some sad news today, Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. John Murtha has passed away at the age of 77. Murtha was a Marine veteran who became a hero to the anti-war left when he announced firm opposition to the Iraq War in 2005, before it became politically popular. Murtha also lost a long shot bid to become House Majority Leader after the Democrats retook the House in 2006. He is a longtime friend and ally of House Speaker Pelosi. Murtha has been criticized in the past for steering money to his district from his perch atop the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, but he was a good man who cared about the middle-class people in his district. He will be missed.
And yes, we must pivot into a crass examination of the political ramifications of Murtha's death. Murtha's successor will be chosen in a special election, likely to take place in May of this year. Murtha's district is a swing district, in fact, it is the only district in the country that went for John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008. I would give the Republicans an early edge based on the district's trends and the current political environment.
The House gavels in tomorrow for a reasonably busy week. After dealing with suspensions tomorrow and Wednesday, the House will take up two important bills. First, the House will vote on an Intelligence Authorization bill, which will set policies and procedures for intelligence agencies in 2010. I expect some politically-motivated amendments on both sides, which should make things interesting. The House will then take up a bill to remove the anti-trust exemption enjoyed by insurance companies. The House included this bill as a provision in its health reform legislation, but Democratic leaders thought it might be a good idea to gain some momentum by passing the popular parts of the big bill in smaller chunks. Policy experts don't think that removing this anti-trust exemption would do much to bring down the cost of insurance. However, it's never a bad idea politically to battle the insurance companies, especially since we've been trying to make them a villain for more than a year now.
THE SENATE: The Senate is an absolute mess right now. Late last week, Republican Senator Richard Shelby announced that he has put a hold on all of Obama's nominees so that he can get some pork to his home state of Alabama. This is absolutely ludicrous. Our government is deeply understaffed. Some of these nominees are not only qualified, but have high bipartisan support. But with Shelby's hold, the nominees would have to go through cloture votes, a process that can take days. President Obama may have to play hardball here and make some recess appointments.
Two of these appointments will be voted on this week, when the Senate returns tomorrow evening. The first is the nomination of Joseph Greenway to be a Judge on the Third Circuit. The second is a vote on Craig Becker to be a member of the National Labor Relations Board. I expect Greenway to be confirmed relatively easily. Becker has drawn some controversy since he is (gasp!) somewhat pro-worker, and cares about allowing unions to organize. The Democrats will need at least one Republican vote to move his nomination forward, and I'm not sure they have it at this time.
The Senate was supposed to take up some sort of jobs bill before it goes out of town for the President's day recess. The likeliest scenario was a vote on a tax credit for small businesses that hire new workers. The Democrats have yet to lock down Republican votes for a proposal that is almost uniquely Republican. We'll see if they can come up with some sort of agreement by the end of the week. This is the supposed to be the first of many jobs bills to be voted on in the coming weeks as Democrats turn their attention to the economy. The jobs agenda can only move as fast as the United States Senate, which makes your average snail look like Roger Bannister.
That's it for now. Because the snow storm seems to be changing the whole rhythm of my life, this will count as both the Weekly Strike and today's Daily Strike. We'll bring you another Daily Strike tomorrow evening. Take care!
THE WHITE HOUSE: The President appears to have a new strategy for health reform. Under increasing pressure from members of his own party to move the ball forward, the President has invited members of both parties to a summit at the White House on February 25th. He will be
feeding cat nip to the media by televising the event. The thought is, if Obama can go toe to toe with his political foes, he can a) say he made one last bipartisan outreach and b) put in a performance on par with his "question time" event with the House GOP last month. GOP leaders praised the President's move, but basically indicated that he would have to scrap the current plans for Republicans to get involved at all. I don't think President Obama is proposing this meeting with any intention of locking up Republican votes. He is doing this to re-frame the debate, to let lawmakers air their grievances in public, and to buy time while House and Senate Democrats come up with a legislative endgame. I'll reserve judgment on this strategy until I see that it lights a fire under reticent Congressional Democrats. I have the same feelings I had since the day Scott Brown ended the Democrats 60-vote majority: the House needs to pass the Senate bill, and both chambers need to approve changes via reconciliation. Get it done!
There is not much on the President's public schedule this week, and things in the District are still very uncertain because of the weather. It's still unclear whether the Federal Government will be open before Friday. Wow.
THE HOUSE: We got some sad news today, Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. John Murtha has passed away at the age of 77. Murtha was a Marine veteran who became a hero to the anti-war left when he announced firm opposition to the Iraq War in 2005, before it became politically popular. Murtha also lost a long shot bid to become House Majority Leader after the Democrats retook the House in 2006. He is a longtime friend and ally of House Speaker Pelosi. Murtha has been criticized in the past for steering money to his district from his perch atop the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, but he was a good man who cared about the middle-class people in his district. He will be missed.
And yes, we must pivot into a crass examination of the political ramifications of Murtha's death. Murtha's successor will be chosen in a special election, likely to take place in May of this year. Murtha's district is a swing district, in fact, it is the only district in the country that went for John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008. I would give the Republicans an early edge based on the district's trends and the current political environment.
The House gavels in tomorrow for a reasonably busy week. After dealing with suspensions tomorrow and Wednesday, the House will take up two important bills. First, the House will vote on an Intelligence Authorization bill, which will set policies and procedures for intelligence agencies in 2010. I expect some politically-motivated amendments on both sides, which should make things interesting. The House will then take up a bill to remove the anti-trust exemption enjoyed by insurance companies. The House included this bill as a provision in its health reform legislation, but Democratic leaders thought it might be a good idea to gain some momentum by passing the popular parts of the big bill in smaller chunks. Policy experts don't think that removing this anti-trust exemption would do much to bring down the cost of insurance. However, it's never a bad idea politically to battle the insurance companies, especially since we've been trying to make them a villain for more than a year now.
THE SENATE: The Senate is an absolute mess right now. Late last week, Republican Senator Richard Shelby announced that he has put a hold on all of Obama's nominees so that he can get some pork to his home state of Alabama. This is absolutely ludicrous. Our government is deeply understaffed. Some of these nominees are not only qualified, but have high bipartisan support. But with Shelby's hold, the nominees would have to go through cloture votes, a process that can take days. President Obama may have to play hardball here and make some recess appointments.
Two of these appointments will be voted on this week, when the Senate returns tomorrow evening. The first is the nomination of Joseph Greenway to be a Judge on the Third Circuit. The second is a vote on Craig Becker to be a member of the National Labor Relations Board. I expect Greenway to be confirmed relatively easily. Becker has drawn some controversy since he is (gasp!) somewhat pro-worker, and cares about allowing unions to organize. The Democrats will need at least one Republican vote to move his nomination forward, and I'm not sure they have it at this time.
The Senate was supposed to take up some sort of jobs bill before it goes out of town for the President's day recess. The likeliest scenario was a vote on a tax credit for small businesses that hire new workers. The Democrats have yet to lock down Republican votes for a proposal that is almost uniquely Republican. We'll see if they can come up with some sort of agreement by the end of the week. This is the supposed to be the first of many jobs bills to be voted on in the coming weeks as Democrats turn their attention to the economy. The jobs agenda can only move as fast as the United States Senate, which makes your average snail look like Roger Bannister.
That's it for now. Because the snow storm seems to be changing the whole rhythm of my life, this will count as both the Weekly Strike and today's Daily Strike. We'll bring you another Daily Strike tomorrow evening. Take care!
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