The Daily Strike-9/10/09-Sorting Through the Speech

Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. I think we might have turned the corner in the health care debate. Let's get to it.

THE SPEECH: I thought, in many ways, the speech was extraordinary. He was much more combative than I thought, he had me on the edge of my seat. He fought back so hard against the lies and idiocy that have dominated the debate in the past month. He did so directly, looking straight into the eyes of the American people. He reminded us why we’re doing this, with personal stories, strong emotion, and forceful persuasion. He also explained every provision more clearly than he ever had. Polling has indicated, quite clearly, that the American people actually know very little about what's in these proposals. They hear a lot of terms thrown around, but don't know exactly how the bills will impact their lives. Imagine not having paid attention at all to the health care debate until now, and suddenly you hear that it will be illegal to drop your coverage if you get sick, or to deny you care if you have a preexisting condition. He also gave an impassioned defense of the public option, but also added some perspective that changed the way I, and I suspect other progressives, might feel. The public option is a means to the end of giving people high quality health care at prices that they can afford. We need to focus on achieving that goal. The public option is the only plan I've heard thus far that I think will fully achieve this goal, but the public option itself is not what this debate is about.

I thought the end of the speech was particularly heartening. While referencing the beautiful letter Senator Kennedy wrote him this past May. Obama gave an impassioned defense of liberalism and the role of government to ensure social justice. As Chris Matthews might say, it really sent a thrill up my leg. It reminded me why I was such an enthusiastic supporter of his, and brought back the feelings I had on November 4^th and January 20^th.

There was a little triangulation, which I don’t mind. He didn’t attack the merits of single payer, he just said it isn’t feasible to change the whole system that radically, which I somewhat agree with. He also threw a bone on Medical Malpractice reform, which is one of the few Republican positions I’m even somewhat sympathetic to (though I agree with Obama that it is in no way a silver bullet.) Overall, a deeply staunch, moving speech. Here's The Big Picture's take:

The speech was very strong, staunch, and most of all very necessary, to take ownership of the issue, create a counter-narrative to the lies and fear, and to show Congress he means business and can't be pushed around. I liked how he boiled things down to what really mattered, stability, security, coverage, more money in your pocket. And then the ending was fantastic, finally a strong affirmation of liberalism, wrapped in emotion, excellent.

I still would have liked more outside-the-box thinking, because to a lot of people I still think it's just him up there giving a speech, the words blend together, hard to focus...I think faces, names, charts, anything visual and compelling is much more arresting. I would have liked real people up there, real names, maybe some video - would have broke with tradition, but that would be good. Well there's still time to do that this week, the next week. Very crucial to build off this speech, can't just sit back, need to use this as a spur to ACTION!

I don't quite agree with The Big Picture in this last paragraph. Part of what I think made the speech so strong was that there were no gimmicks, no games and no political antic. The President showed the American who was the mature adult, in charge of leading this country. I think it was important for the President to regain trust from the American people that he knows what he's doing.

The effort was enhanced, of course, by shockingly immature Republican behavior. By now you've all heard about the outburst from Congressman Joe Wilson. President Obama was rebutting the false charge that the health care plan will cover illegal immigrants, and the Congressman screamed out "you lie!!" Many conservatives point out that plenty of Democrats called Bush a liar, but no one did in the hallowed House chamber during a Presidential address. It is more than bad protocol. The face on House Speaker Pelosi when she heard this outburst was absolutely priceless. I have to say, us CSPAN junkies are not surprised that Wilson was the culprit. After all, he's the Congressmen who who ends every speech in the House floor by saying, in an almost illiterate tone, "In conclusion, God bless our troops, and we will never forget September the 11th." Other Republicans were seen holding up home-made signs touting their counter-proposals, and typing on their blackberries. These antics not only might turn off independent voters who find the behavior disrespectful, but also could help unite disparate Democrats.

So will this speech have a tangible impact? It's true that we're at a point in the process where the entire plan is in the hands of a few moderate Democrats and Olympia Snowe (R-ME) in the Senate. Can a good speech really put the vote total over the top? I think it can, because a lot of these centrist Democrats are flimsy political actors who are susceptible to changes in public opinion. If the speech helped in any way to change public perception of the plan, I think a good bill has a much better chance of passing.

THE HOUSE: Congress finished its work for the week today (what a grueling 3 day week it was!). The House passed a bill that extends funding authorization for the Chesapeake Bay Gateways and Watertrails Network. The bill passed by a vote of 311-107, with all no votes coming from Republicans, who objected to the authorization of new spending. The House beat back a Republican motion to recommit that would enact funding for this bill if the deficit came under $1 trillion. Basically, the Republicans found a way to spend House floor time to talk about the deficit. The motion failed by a vote of 194-229, with 19 Democrats joining every Republican in support. The House moves on to more important business next week, including a very important student loan bill, which we'll discuss at length when the time comes.

THE SENATE: We mentioned yesterday that the Senate cut off debate on the nomination of Cass Sunstein to be Administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs at the Office of Management and Budget (see yesterday's entry about why his nomination had been delayed). The Senate voted on the nomination itself today, and confirmed Sunstein by a vote of 57-4o. Republicans Bennett (UT), Collins (ME), Hatch (UT), Lugar (IN), Snowe (ME) and Voinovich voted yes, while Democrats Begich (AK), Lincoln (AR), Nelson (NE), Pryor (AR) and Webb (VA) voted no. This was the first vote for new Senator George LeMieux, chosen last month by Florida Governor (and Senate candidate) Charlie Crist to replace Mel Martinez, who bolted before his term ended next year. LeMieux will almost certainly not challenge his appointer in next year's election, so he better enjoy his 16 months in the Senate while he can. I expect him to be a reliable Republican vote, as Martinez generally was (except on issues like immigration).

The Senate will move next week to the Transportation, Housing and Urban Development Appropriations Bill, which will be the 5th out of the 12 appropriations bill that the Senate has to pass before the fiscal year ends on September 30th (not gonna happen, they'll need to pass a stopgap spending measure to keep the government running temporarily.)

That's it for today, leave us some comments!

The Daily Strike-9/9/09-Showtime

Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike on this night of nights in politics. I will give my analysis of the President's address in tomorrow's entry. Please give your thoughts on the speech in our comments section.

THE SPEECH: We all know the stakes for the speech tonight. The President needs to change the trajectory of the health care debate. He needs to break through the muck and mire of August and speak with one clear, unmistakable voice. From the excerpts of the speech that have just been released, it looks like he will do that, and much much more. The speech seems forceful, and surprisingly direct, especially this passage:

"But know this: I will not waste time with those who have made the calculation that it’s better politics to kill this plan than improve it. I will not stand by while the special interests use the same old tactics to keep things exactly the way they are. If you misrepresent what’s in the plan, we will call you out. And I will not accept the status quo as a solution. Not this time. Not now."

Wow. That is showing your drive in no uncertain terms. If the rest of the speech is this staunch, we'll be in for a very good night. I also expect the President to be specific and concise about exactly what he wants in the plan, so that there is no room for confusion. Another interesting thing the President will do, according to excerpts, is claim that many of the ideas he's using were from his two opponents in the Presidential election last year, Hillary Clinton and John McCain. This is true, actually. The idea of individual and employer mandates comes from Hillary, and the idea of ending the tax exemption for certain health care plans was a McCain idea (although that may not end up in the final legislation).

My hope for tonight is that the President can come up with one of those transcendent speeches, where he hits all his cadences, and gets Democratic members of Congress to jump out of their seats. That kind of speech could really get the debate back on his turf.

The Republican response will be given by Charles Boustany, a Republican Representative from Louisiana who:

1. Is a birther.
2. Sponsored the provision to have Medicare cover end-of-life counseling (aka death panels)
3. Once sued for medical malpractice, which is a cardinal sin among Republicans.

This should be good.

THE SENATE: Before I go get ready for the speech, some quick tidbits from Congress today. The Senate took two votes today (wow!). The first vote was on final passage on that Travel Promotion Act, which seeks to boost foreign tourism in the U.S. The bill, as amended, passed by a vote of 79-19, with all no votes coming from the GOP. No word on if or when the House will take up this measure. It is a pet project of the politically vulnerable Majority Leader Reid, who wants to prop up his friends in Las Vegas.

The next vote was to cut off debate on Cass Sunstein to be Administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs at the Office of Management and Budget. Republicans had delayed on vote on Sunstein for awhile for a variety of concerns, one of them being that he is a strong animal rights supporter (seriously?). Apparently these objections were significant enough that 35 Senators voted no on the nomination, including Democrats Lincoln (AR), Pryor (AR), and Webb (VA). Republicans Bennett (UT), Collins (ME), Gregg (NH), Hatch (UT), Lugar (IN), Snowe (ME) and Voinovich (OH) voted yes. The Senate will most likely move to Transportation Appropriations tomorrow.

THE HOUSE: The lower chamber continued with suspension bills today. Yesterday, Republicans were upset that they weren't getting a fair number of their suspension bills put on the House calendar. They objected to this by voting against a non-controversial Democratic bill. Democrats retaliated by voting against a Republican bill. Ladies and gentleman, your United States Congress.

That's it for tonight, enjoy the speech and we'll see you tomorrow!

The Daily Strike-9/8/09-Baucus' Move

Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. It feels good to have Washington back in business after a long hiatus. Let's get to the day in politics.

HEALTH CARE: As President Obama prepares to give his highly anticipated address to Congress tomorrow night on health reform, we're finally seeing some movement in the Senate Finance Committee. For months, the so-called "Gang of Six" has been telling us to be patient, that they will be "ready when (they're) ready." Finally, Senator Baucus released his own plan this weekend, and he is telling his "gang" that they have until tomorrow to submit suggested changes. Otherwise, he will, reportedly, go ahead and bring the bill in front of the committee regardless. This could potentially set up hearings in the next couple of weeks.

The Baucus plan is far from perfect. In fact, it is clearly the worst of the proposals currently be considered in Congress. The plan does not include the public option. It instead has co-ops that would be initially funded by the government, but would be run by consumers. The bill contains subsidies for those who can't afford insurance, but they would only apply to those making up to 300 percent of poverty (about $65,000 for a family of 4). The subsidies would get progressively lower as incomes get higher. These subsidies are less significant than those in the other bills. The bill is financed by a combination to cuts within the system (like the other plans), taxes on high cost insurance plans, and additional fees on insurance companies.

The lack of the public option is disappointing, but not unexpected. The House version of the bill will most likely contain a public option, and we can push for it heavily when the House and Senate go into conference. I'm more concerned about the smaller subsidies for consumers. The subsidy portion of the bill is crucially important. The bill will mandate that individuals buy insurance. If this mandate is in effect, but people can't afford insurance, they will be forced to either go bankrupt by buying insurance, or to pay fees to the government for NOT buying insurance. This is not only bad in a policy-sense, but it would be a political calamity. If subsidies only reach the poorest of the poor, middle class Americans will feel left out. More than left out, they will feel bitter that the poor are getting helped out and they are not. This is why poorly means tested programs inevitably fail. The long-term future of health reform depends on the middle class feeling that their lives have been made better, not worse.

Ezra Klein argues that the Baucus bill, if enacted, would still be the most progressive piece of legislation since LBJ. In many ways, he's right. The bill contains strong consumer protections that will ban companies from discriminating based on preexisting conditions, and will set caps on out-of-pocket expenses. If there is no other way we can get a health care bill enacted, I would support this bill as a first step. I don't think we're at that point yet. I think we can do better. Democrats better come to the Finance Committee armed with amendments to make the bill better. No matter what the Gang of Six wants, Democrats still hold a strong majority on the committee. They can make the Baucus plan more progressive (more generous subsidies!) and still manage to send the bill to the full Senate.

While we're on the subject of health care, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid met with President Obama to discuss health care strategy. After the meeting Pelosi said that the public option will be crucial in getting a bill through the House. Leader Reid left open the possibility of passing the bill with 50 votes under reconciliation procedures. Stay tuned...

THE SENATE: The Senate voted today to limit debate on the Travel Promotion Bill, which would seek to promote tourism in the United States (see this morning's entry for a complete description). Cloture was invoked by a vote of 80-19, with all no votes coming from Republicans. For the first time this year, every single Senator duly chosen and sworn actually showed up to vote! For much of the year, Senator Byrd (D-WV) was sick and unable to show up to vote. Today, he made it into the chamber for a relatively non-controversial bill. This is an auspicious sign for close votes (like health care), assuming Byrd can maintain relatively good health for the next few months (he's 91). Debate on the bill (and amendments) will continue for the next couple of days. I expect a vote on final passage Thursday or Friday.

THE HOUSE: The House today voted on several suspension bills. Usually these non-controversial bills pass easily, but two out of the three considered today actually failed. One of them sought to designate a national heritage area in Arizona, and the other one dealt with Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel Remediation, whatever that means. More suspension bills on deck tomorrow.

We will have complete coverage of the President's address to Congress tomorrow and Thursday. See you then!

The Weekly Strike-9/8-9/13

Good morning and welcome to the Weekly Strike! Congress is back, the President is gearing up his ambitious September agenda, and the Strike is back to a more complete, full time schedule. Make sure you read The Big Picture's great entry last night on Obama's speech to the AFL-CIO in Cincinnati. Let's get to the week in politics.

THE WHITE HOUSE: After a grueling August (that seems to be the beginning to every article these days), President Obama comes roaring back from vacation this week to make a series of high profile public appearances. The biggest will be tomorrow night, when he addresses a joint session of Congress on health reform. If yesterday's speech to the AFL-CIO was any sort of clue, the President will bring more fire and passion to the issue than he has shown in the past several months. The soul searching that The Big Picture talked about in his entry yesterday will helpfully spur Obama to be passionate, substantive and specific about what health reform will mean to the American people. The key terms I think we'll hear are security, stability, and peace of mind. That's the way to sell insurance reform to people to who don't have insurance. It will help the President highlight the most popular elements of reform, the new consumer protections that will stop insurance companies from denying care based on preexisting conditions, caps on out of pocket expenses etc. As for the public option, it looks like, according to White House sources, the President will make the case for it, but not threaten to veto a bill that doesn't include it. This is something I can live with. As long as he tries to fire up his base with talk about the public option, and as long as he lays out a case for why the government should step in with a mechanism to keep insurance companies honest, I'll be satisfied. We'll have more on the speech in the coming days.

The President today also will address the nation's schoolchildren, or as the right-wing might say, indoctrinate them with his socialist ideology. If you haven't already heard, the President's planned address to public school students about the importance of doing homework and staying in school has caused controversy with right-wing critics who think he is trying to use the platform to push his policy ideas. The speech will touch on such Marxist subjects as:

-being the best you can be
-doing your homework
-the importance of reading

How dare he. The President speaks separately to students at a school in Arlington, VA, this morning. I think one of the President's greatest potential strengths is the power of his example. He is an enduring lesson to schoolchildren across the country that if you work hard, no matter where you come from, you can do anything.

Later today, the President has an important meeting with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Reid, where they will plot a strategy for getting health care done by the end of the year. Just yesterday, Finance Committee chairman Max Baucus (D-MT), released his version of the bill, which was supposedly the fruit of the "Gang of Six" bipartisan negotiations. None of the Republicans who have been involved in negotiations have yet endorsed the bill. It would have to be combined with the bill that was passed by the HELP committee in July before it comes to the floor of the United States Senate. The bill does not include a public option; it has co-ops instead. To pay for reform, it would impose an excise tax on the most expensive health plans, the so-called "gold plated" plans. Analysts I trust, including Ezra Klein, are not big fans of this tax, because they believe insurance companies would pass the tax on to consumers. This may be true, but it also might encourage consumers of these high-end plans to switch to lower-cost plans, which might help the system overall save money. My preferred way of financing the bill is President Obama's original idea of decreasing the tax exemption on charitable contributions from the super wealthy. This plan, I'm afraid, will not pass muster through Congress. As for the House, Pelosi and her allies will take the temperature of their caucus post-August recess today and tomorrow. At some point in the next few weeks, they will merge together the three separate bills that have passed House committees, and bring one bill to the floor for a vote. They might have to make some additional changes to the bills based on the feedback of rank and file members. I think a lot of those changes depend on what President Obama says tomorrow night.

The President has a very heavy workload this September. There are major decisions to be made in Afghanistan, the UN General Assembly Meeting, the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, the possible introduction of his financial regulation proposal, and much more.

THE HOUSE: Congress is back in session, and to commemorate this occasion, they will be doing very little work of significance this week (of course). The main event will be the President's address tomorrow night, as well as other negotiations involving health reform. The legislative agenda itself is pretty thin. The House today and tomorrow will take up a series of suspension bills, none of which seem particularly interesting. On Thursday, it will consider a bill reauthorizing a program relating to gateways in the Chesapeake Bay. For those of you loyal CSPAN watchers, the most interesting part of the House's week might be the one minute speeches at the beginning of the day, which can be on any topic. The Republicans will most likely use this free time to talk about how the "American people stood up against a government-takeover of health reform last month!" The key to making these one minute speeches effective is to have different members make the same speech several times in a row to foster obnoxious repetition. I think I'll be laying off the CSPAN until that spectacle is over.

THE SENATE: The Senate will vote today to cut off debate on a long-stalled tourism measure, a pet project of Majority Leader Reid that seeks to increase foreign travel into the United States. Reid faces a tough reelection fight next year (no major opponents have come forward yet, but Reid's approval ratings are dismal), and this bill is a way for him to win friends in the tourism industry in Las Vegas. Republicans successfully stalled debate on this measure when it was first introduced in June, so Democrats are taking a second stab at it. I expect cloture to be invoked this afternoon, which would set up a vote on final passage for sometime later this week.

The Senate will then need to turn back to appropriations bills. The House has passed all 12 of their spending bills, while the jovial upper chamber has only passed 4. Senators will try and pass at least 4 more before the fiscal year ends on September 30th. At that time, Congress will have to pass a continuing resolution to maintain current funding levels until all the bills are passed. As for the 4 bills the Senate has already passed, House and Senate conferees will try to hammer out a compromise between the two versions, and will hopefully pass them by the end of the month.

THE THIRD BRANCH: Another very important item to watch this week is a key hearing at the Supreme Court. The high court usually doesn't start its term until October, but it is holding a special hearing this week to determine whether to overturn precedents that have set limits on campaign contributions from corporations. The case stems from an anti-Hillary Clinton video produced during the 2008 campaign. Indications are that the conservative majority will most likely vote to overturn several judicial and legislative precedents, including the landmark McCain-Feingold bill in the name of "free speech." Justices Roberts, Alito and Kennedy have all been on record against campaign finance restrictions, and Justices Scalia and Thomas almost certainly will agree with them. This will be the first case for newly sworn-in Justice Sotomayor. We'll have more on this case when it is decided later this fall.

That's it for now. We will keep you fully informed on this busy week in politics. Stay tuned!

The Big Picture: Obama on Labor Day - Fired Up and Ready to Go!

Seems like someone engaged in some honest, penetrating soul-searching on his vacation!

President Obama returned to action today delivering a Labor Day speech the AFL-CIO picnic in Cincinnatti, and it is required viewing for anyone who's been feeling demoralized, who's lost the euphoria - in fact Obama addresses that directly. I highly recommend watching it in its entirety (just click on the title of this post) - by the end you'll be chomping at the bit to call your congressman, organize rallies, and tell your friends and neighbors to do the same. His speech today was the very definition of staunch - making no apologies for government action to prevent a second Great Depression and keep people employed, giving a long, passionate, forceful endorsement of the historical and current contribution of organized labor, how it is indispensable, how he is a labor President who stands on the side of working people and fights for them. It was the opposite of paying lip service with vague generalities - he explained that basic elements of our life that we take for granted - the 8 hour day, the 40 hour week, the right to organize and collective bargaining, the minimum wage, health insurance - all of them were fought for, hard, by labor. And he said in no uncertain terms that he stood for the Employee Free Choice Act, because "a stronger labor movements means a stronger America." No apologies, no qualifications. He showed whose side he's on.

Throughout the speech he spoke in the sort of folksy, charismatic-preacher, emotional-connection voice which I love, filled with humor, warmth, but also passion, fire, and grit. It's the side of him that came out when he was rolling on the campaign trail, and I think it is his best mode of communicating, makes him almost impossible to oppose or dislike, comforts those in the middle while rallying his base. In recent months, he has been sorely lacking this approach - the combination of staunch, unapologetic, making-it-real rhetoric delivered with passion, humor, and the human touch. I bet Michelle and his old friends encouraged him to quit worrying about appearing "Presidential" at all times and just go out there, speak from the heart, connect with people in the way that has made him enormously popular and successful at every stage of his life. And maybe he watched some old tapes of Bill Clinton about to connect emotionally with the audience, reminding him that success in politics depends not on nuanced statements but on hitting people where they live, and persuading them that you're on their side so they'll stand with you and pull for you. He demonstrated that today, in spades.

Obama matched this more-effective style of delivery with a more-effective message on health care, boiled down to the essentials, and instead of resorting to fear he made his message uplifting, conveying his vision of all the good that will come from health care reform. He said, "Imagine health insurance that works for the American people as well as it works for health insurers, where you aren't discriminated against because of a pre-existing condition, where your coverage will be there when you need it, where you can't go bankrupt because you get sick, where seniors have all their prescription drugs covered where you have choice on an exchange, with a public option." This all got rousing cheers. Obama summed it up, in a formulation that, finally, was necessarily concise and hard-hitting: "This is what it's all about: security and stability for those who have health insurance, and help for those who don't. Coverage people need at a price they can afford, while finally bringing costs under control." There you go!

An excellent foundation for a retooled push for health care reform, with a key moment in his Wednesday evening address to Congress. Please, Obama, bring that passionate folksy emotionally-connecting style to the halls of Congress! But, while this solid foundation is necessary for success, it's not sufficient. He needs to MAKE IT REAL. Tell personal stories. In fact, bring out real people to tell their stories for a couple minutes at a time, how the current system is failing them, and how health care reform will mean major improvements for them. Put those people up on the dais with you, literally in the face of Congress. Nothing connects like a sympathetic face and tearjerking/heartwarming story. And nothing will spur productive media coverage like those faces, those stories, and the drama of them standing up there in front of Representatives and Senators, pleading, "Don't let me down!" 

I was at a sunset vigil for health care reform in Central Park last week with my dad. As we arrived we weren't expecting much, maybe a small gathering with some activists yelling into a microphone, while we applauded but wondered, "what will this do?" But it actually proved to be far more effective than we imagined, all because it connected emotionally. We all lit candles and held them, both to mourn the late great Senator Kennedy, and to mourn the 20,000 - 20,000!! - people who die EVERY YEAR because they don't have access to a doctor. We listened to a Kennedy speech, in which he spoke of health care reform in stark personal terms. He told the story of how his son was in the hospital being treated for cancer. His son would get all the medical care he needed because he was covered by the Senate's health insurance. But, Senator Kennedy explained, the other families in the hospital knew that their children only had four months, or two months, or one month in which to get better before their coverage ran out and the costs would bankrupt them. The anguish on their faces - he could never forget it. That is outrageous and obscene. It must be changed. 

So, Mr. President, make it real on Wednesday night. Persuade the nation, with the power of emotion.