The Daily Strike-8/7/09-Jobs, Jobs, Jobs and Jobs

Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. It was very good to get a comment last night from our good friend Small Town Roots. Please keep the comments coming. Also, as we mentioned yesterday, look for some cool new changes to the blog during the August recess.

JOBS REPORT: The White House had been bracing for what was expected to be a devastating jobs report today. Obama had previously said that the unemployment rate was likely to keep going up toward 10%, and forecasters predicted that the economy would shed some 350,000 jobs, which would up the jobless rate from 9.5 to 9.6%. Surprisingly, the report showed that unemployment actually went down in the month of July, to 9.4%. The economy only shed some 200,000 jobs. In most times, this would be a horrible jobs report. But given how bad things have been lately, today brought a possible sign that maybe the worst is behind us.

First, some caveats from an Economics minor. One thing that could be impacting jobless numbers is that some people have given up on looking for a job, and therefore are not counted among the unemployed. Also, we could still see the jobless rate rise in coming months, because consumer spending and business investment has yet to pick up.

But let's be honest, this is very good political news for Barack Obama. The Republicans harped all last month about job losses. They sent their cabal to the House floor asking "where are the jobs?" Today's report was not only well publicized in the media as being good news, but it also spurred a major stock market rally. Now, Obama can confidently say that his policies have helped turn the tide. It's also becoming clear from the analysis I'm reading that the correlation between stimulus spending and jobs might be more tan just a liberal talking point. The biggest job growth is coming in the health services sector, and in state and local governments. Those were among the sectors that were specifically targeted in the stimulus. Economists say that job losses would be more around 500,000 (close to the January high) without the stimulus package. Republicans have been rooting so heavily for failure, and they have staked their political future on its failure. They will be in a lot of trouble if the plan continues to succeed.

The political impact of this report can be potentially far reaching beyond just the economy. Democrats now have some tangible progress to bring home to their constituents during the August recess, and it could allow for some breathing room for health care reform and energy legislation.

We shouldn't become too jubilant, however. The report was merely "less bad" than other recent reports, and the unemployment rate is still very, very high. I just hope that we've turned a corner.

CONGRESSIONAL ODDS AND ENDS: A couple of news items from the United States Senate:

-Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) has evaded a potentially tough challenge from Rep. Carolyn Maloney in next year's Senate primary. Maloney announced today that she will not be entering the race, after facing significant pressure from senior Senator Chuck Schumer (NY) and the White House. This is good news in the sense that Gillibrand has a clear path to the nomination and can focus her attention on potential Republican opposition. However, the threat of the liberal Maloney running against her made Gillibrand vote like a solid lefty. Hopefully this won't change as we inch closer to battles on health reform and other issues.

-Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Kent Conrad (D-ND) have been cleared by the ethics committee of any wrongdoing for their involvement in a VIP mortgage program. I'm happy about Dodd, because he is in the election fight of his life in Connecticut, but sad about Conrad, because the stubborn centrist could benefit from being knocked down a peg or two.

-The Senate gaveled in today just to approve some nominations by unanimous consent. One of them was the nomination of Utah Governor Jon Hunstman Jr. (R) to be ambassador to China. He will presumably be handing the state over to Lieutenant Governor Gary Herbert. Huntsman was one of the more reasonable potential Obama foes out there among Republicans, and his confirmation probably permanently takes him out of the President's path.

HEALTH CARE: This is an exchange The Big Picture and I had about how to counter conservative mobs at Town Hall meetings this month. The conversation started from a post in blogger Ezra Klein's chat (he also answered some questions from The Big Picture and myself!). Enjoy, and we'll see you tomorrow!

Silver Spring, Md.: Found out that my congresswoman Donna Edwards is having a health care town hall this evening at 6 at the Oxon Hill library. Given that she's a liberal black woman and outspoken in favor of a public option (and who would favor single payer) I'm a little worried about right-wing astroturfers showing up and getting way, way out of hand. What could those of us who support her do to help, do you think?

Ezra Klein: Show up.

The Big Picture: You should round up some friends and go to support Donna Edwards tonight! I REALLY wish I could go. Could be a real battle royale, showdown at the OK Corral. On the other hand, you don't want to pick fights with a bunch of racist gun-toting bizarros who probably have concealed shotguns and who are so ideological that who knows where they would stop.

Which is why the best approach is really to shame them with real stories. "Just say no to health care for this dying woman?! Just say no?!?" I'd like Obama to give a speech like that, with a sympathetic woman on stage with him.

The Strike: Yeah, we can’t say it enough times, that IS the approach to take. It can’t be an abstract thing. I watched Sicko again the other day, and if for some reason Michael Moore hadn’t lost a lot of credibility for being right about almost everything, I think we should be showing that movie over and over again. It was all about the excesses of the private insurance industry, and how it took the lives of people’s loved ones.

The Big Picture: Yeah where has he been? I think working on a movie about the financial crisis and who's responsible and who's suffering, which is obviously worthy, but nobody is as good as him at this. I don't really get what Obama and his strategists thought was going to be a good public approach. I always assumed Obama, when he started making this his top priority in July, was going to base it around personal stories and emotion. Bill Clinton of course would be great at this as well - "tell me your question again" "I feel your pain". Very poor. The struggles in Congress have been pretty predictable, but losing the message war, against Bizarros who are defending private insurance against reform, how are we possibly losing that battle? How have we allowed those Bizarros to align with old people wanting to protect their Medicare? Liberals created Medicare, we're the ones who support it, we're trying to strengthen it - the right is still opposed to the existence of Medicare, and yet they've become its defenders? What?

The Daily Strike-2/17/09-Signed and Sealed...Now to Deliver

Good Tuesday and welcome to the Daily Strike. The stimulus bill has been signed into law, and the Obama agenda now moves forward.

STIMULUS SIGNING: The President signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act into law today in Denver, CO, right after touring solar panels at a science museum. The President was introduced by a young entrepreneur who started his own solar energy company. The man said that his business, because of stimulus funds, will be able to add jobs instead of subtract them. Also speaking were Colorado Governor Bill Ritter and Vice President Biden. Several lawmakers were in attendance, including new Colorado Senator Michael Bennet.

In his speech before signing the bill, the President said that this bill in no way will end the economic crisis, but it is the beginning of the recovery. He touted investments in clean energy, education and health care. He also called his tax cuts to working families, "the most progressive in our history."

The President's job in the coming weeks will be to show the American public what exactly the stimulus has done. It helps that he started a website, recovery.gov, which tracks spending of the money. But more importantly, Obama needs to exhibit cases in which the stimulus funds helped create or save jobs. I just watched a report on World News Tonight about states and localities who will now be able to start long-awaited construction projects. One mayor was talking about how he will now be able to hire 500 workers to fix failing heating systems in schools. These stories need to be the focus of Obama's campaign-style appearances. It's much easier to tout tangible results than to talk about vague economic theory. Imagine the contrast of Obama talking about the specific jobs his bill created while Republicans talk about the theoretical pitfalls of government spending and theoretical virtues of corporate tax cuts. This is especially appealing politically in the wake of 8 years of failed Bush policies.

The President goes on to Arizona tomorrow to start selling the other part of his economic vision, his plan to stem home foreclosures. We'll talk more about that tomorrow.

AFGHANISTAN: We haven't really talked about foreign policy for awhile, but today the President made a big decision to send an additional 17,000 troops to Afghanistan. In a statement, Obama mentioned the resurgence of the Taliban and the presence of Al Qaeda on the Pakistan/Afghanistan border. He also says that the additional brigades are possible because of the draw down of forces in Iraq. This plan will probably meet some resistance from the grassroots on the left, but it shouldn't come as a surprise. Obama has talked about increasing troop presence in Afghanistan throughout the campaign. The goal should be, as Defense Secretary Robert Gates has articulated, a new strategy that emphasizes diplomatic and political efforts. Vote Vets, a liberal group of veterans who have opposed the War in Iraq, released a statement saying they support the plan.

POLITICAL SUCCOTASH: One item worth mentioning: It seems that new Illinois Senator Roland Burris, appointed by ousted governor Rod Blagojevich, is in deep trouble. After denying that he did any wrongdoing, he now admits to raising money for the embattled former governor after he was appointed to the seat. The matter is now being investigated by the Senate Ethics Committee (which takes forever to do anything). I don't see any way that Burris runs for reelection in 2010. Pretty soon, we might copy Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post and rank the Senate races for 2010.

HOUSE RACE UPDATE: When Hilda Solis is confirmed next Monday, there will be three vacancies in the House of Representatives, all in seats held by Democrats. The first election will be March 31st in the Strike's favorite upstate New York district to replace now Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. As we've talked about before, assembly minority leader James Tedisco is running for the Republicans against venture capitalist Scott Murphy. All of the bigwigs are out campaigning: Giuliani, Michael Steele and John Boehner for Tedisco, and Steny Hoyer and Gillibrand for Murphy. This will be a district the Republicans will heavily court, because they have a good chance with a well-known candidate in a conservative district.

The next race will be in Illinois to replace new White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel. This seat will almost certainly stay in the Democratic column. The primary election will be on March 3rd, with the general coming on April 7th. The favorite based on fundraising seems to be state representative Sara Feigenholtz, who received the endorsement (and moo-la) from Emily's List, a prominent abortion rights group that gives money to Democratic candidates.

Solis' seat will also most likely stay Democratic. No date for the election has been set since Solis has not yet left the House.

There could be more vacancies if Obama nominates a Secretary of HHS or Commerce from the House or Senate.

That's it for us today. See you tomorrow! Remember to make yourself a follower of the blog if you have not already done so!!

The Daily Strike-1/25/09-Vocab Word I

Sunday's are usually slow in politics, so today's Daily Strike will be the first in a series of vocabulary lessons that can help us understand the ins and outs of Congress. Today's term is "Special Rule." When the House of Representatives considers a bill, it first must pass a rule that governs debate. The rule originates in the Rules Committee, which is an arm of the Majority leadership. The current chairwoman is Louise Slaughter of New York, and the ranking Republican is David Dreier of California (you'll frequently see him debating the rules and complaining about how the minority has been shut out of the legislative process). The Rules Committee customarily is heavily weighted in the majority's favor. There are three types of rules that govern debate. An open rule allows for any member to offer amendments. This is pretty unusual, because you don't want your members to have to take tough votes on amendments proposed by the other side. A modified open rule allows amendments predetermined by the rules committee. A closed rule allows no amendments. Most bills these days are considered under closed rules, which the minority party often complains about. The rule must be voted upon before debate can officially begin on a bill. The vote on the rule usually is along party lines. Why is this important? The rules committee can help the majority achieve its will by limiting the minority's power to affect legislation.

Elsewhere today:

-Not much news coming from the Sunday talk-shows, except that John McCain claims he will not support the stimulus bill in its current form. This is not surprising, although it could be a sign that McCain's renewed maverick streak is coming to a close.

-The Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, talked about the appointment of Gillibrand, saying that her one concern was that the Democrats may lose her House seat. This concern, of course, is very valid. There were rumors that Gillibrand and Pelosi had a less than harmoneous relationship, but both vehemently deny any tension.

Stay tuned tomorrow for the Weekly Strike, an overview of the coming week in Congress, and tomorrow's Daily Strike.

20th Congressional District

I'm quite proud of the selection of Kirsten Gillibrand to be the next Senator from New York. I was a resident of her district in college and was able to meet her a couple of times. Her selection does set up a bit of a battle in her relatively conservative upstate NY district. A lot of people have talked about how this seat has a Republican lean, but due to the diligence of the folks at www.swingstateproject.com, we now know that Obama narrowly won the district in 2008. Bush had won by 8 points in 2004. The real problem for the Democrats is that they have a very narrow bench. Their best option seems to be a series of county chairmen, unless former New York Rangers goalie Mike Richter were to run. The Republicans have some appealing candidates, like Assemblyman James Tedisco, who is the affable minority leader of the state assembly. There's also John Faso, who lost to Eliot Spitzer in the 2006 Governor's race, and Sandy Treadwell, who lost to Gillibrand last time around. The election will be held within 30 to 40 days after Governor David Paterson calls for it, which could be awhile, since he may want to give the Democrats maximum time to find a good candidate.

Currently, with Gillibrand set to resign the House, the Democrats' advantage stands at 255-178. If Hilda Solis is confirmed as Labor Secretary, the advantage will be 254-178.