The Daily Strike-1/6/10-Dodd and Negotiations

Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. It turns out we wrote our entry a bit too early last night.

DODD: We reported last night on the somber news that Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan is not seeking reelection. After press time, news came out that another Democratic Senator, Chris Dodd of Connecticut, was also retiring. This time, the news was jubilant for Democrats. Dodd's popularity had plummeted over the last couple of years for a number of reasons, mostly because of alleged sweetheart deals with Countrywide and AIG. Even before the political environment turned against the Democrats, Dodd was losing badly to potential Republican challengers. In fact, most analysts considered the seat a lost cause.

Now that Dodd has retired, Democrats should be heavily favored to hold on to this seat. Popular Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has already said he will run for the seat, and a new poll out today shows him crushing Republican opposition. Lazy media outlets, of course, lumped the Dorgan and Dodd retirements together in an effort to push the "Dems heading for the exits" storyline, but I'd say Dodd's retirement makes yesterday pretty much a wash.

Amazingly, Colorado's Democratic Governor Bill Ritter also decided not to seek reelection. I don't remember ever hearing about three big retirements in one day. I guess that's why inside-the-beltway types are referring to yesterday as "Black Tuesday."

HEALTH CARE: Before Chris Dodd hides away in Connecticut, he will be helping Democrats reconcile the House and Senate versions of health reform. A group of House leaders met with President Obama today and outlined their priorities on what they want included in the final legislation. House leaders are strongly objecting to the Senate provision that taxes high-cost insurance plans. The House version of the bill is funded by an surtax on the wealthy. I sympathize with House leaders on this issue, because it's possible that middle class families will be impacted by the excise tax in the Senate bill. President Obama, despite his pledge not to raise taxes on anyone making below $250,000, is said to be strongly supportive of the Senate's financing mechanisms. Analysts have concluded that the so-called "Cadillac Tax" on high insurance plans will help bend the proverbial cost curve. House leaders are right to make an issue out of this, but being the pragmatist that I am, I think it will be very hard for the House to alter the delicate Senate compromise.

That's it for today, though I should mention that the White House Director of the Office of Management and Budget apparently has a love child. Good night!

The Daily Strike-8/7/09-Jobs, Jobs, Jobs and Jobs

Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. It was very good to get a comment last night from our good friend Small Town Roots. Please keep the comments coming. Also, as we mentioned yesterday, look for some cool new changes to the blog during the August recess.

JOBS REPORT: The White House had been bracing for what was expected to be a devastating jobs report today. Obama had previously said that the unemployment rate was likely to keep going up toward 10%, and forecasters predicted that the economy would shed some 350,000 jobs, which would up the jobless rate from 9.5 to 9.6%. Surprisingly, the report showed that unemployment actually went down in the month of July, to 9.4%. The economy only shed some 200,000 jobs. In most times, this would be a horrible jobs report. But given how bad things have been lately, today brought a possible sign that maybe the worst is behind us.

First, some caveats from an Economics minor. One thing that could be impacting jobless numbers is that some people have given up on looking for a job, and therefore are not counted among the unemployed. Also, we could still see the jobless rate rise in coming months, because consumer spending and business investment has yet to pick up.

But let's be honest, this is very good political news for Barack Obama. The Republicans harped all last month about job losses. They sent their cabal to the House floor asking "where are the jobs?" Today's report was not only well publicized in the media as being good news, but it also spurred a major stock market rally. Now, Obama can confidently say that his policies have helped turn the tide. It's also becoming clear from the analysis I'm reading that the correlation between stimulus spending and jobs might be more tan just a liberal talking point. The biggest job growth is coming in the health services sector, and in state and local governments. Those were among the sectors that were specifically targeted in the stimulus. Economists say that job losses would be more around 500,000 (close to the January high) without the stimulus package. Republicans have been rooting so heavily for failure, and they have staked their political future on its failure. They will be in a lot of trouble if the plan continues to succeed.

The political impact of this report can be potentially far reaching beyond just the economy. Democrats now have some tangible progress to bring home to their constituents during the August recess, and it could allow for some breathing room for health care reform and energy legislation.

We shouldn't become too jubilant, however. The report was merely "less bad" than other recent reports, and the unemployment rate is still very, very high. I just hope that we've turned a corner.

CONGRESSIONAL ODDS AND ENDS: A couple of news items from the United States Senate:

-Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) has evaded a potentially tough challenge from Rep. Carolyn Maloney in next year's Senate primary. Maloney announced today that she will not be entering the race, after facing significant pressure from senior Senator Chuck Schumer (NY) and the White House. This is good news in the sense that Gillibrand has a clear path to the nomination and can focus her attention on potential Republican opposition. However, the threat of the liberal Maloney running against her made Gillibrand vote like a solid lefty. Hopefully this won't change as we inch closer to battles on health reform and other issues.

-Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Kent Conrad (D-ND) have been cleared by the ethics committee of any wrongdoing for their involvement in a VIP mortgage program. I'm happy about Dodd, because he is in the election fight of his life in Connecticut, but sad about Conrad, because the stubborn centrist could benefit from being knocked down a peg or two.

-The Senate gaveled in today just to approve some nominations by unanimous consent. One of them was the nomination of Utah Governor Jon Hunstman Jr. (R) to be ambassador to China. He will presumably be handing the state over to Lieutenant Governor Gary Herbert. Huntsman was one of the more reasonable potential Obama foes out there among Republicans, and his confirmation probably permanently takes him out of the President's path.

HEALTH CARE: This is an exchange The Big Picture and I had about how to counter conservative mobs at Town Hall meetings this month. The conversation started from a post in blogger Ezra Klein's chat (he also answered some questions from The Big Picture and myself!). Enjoy, and we'll see you tomorrow!

Silver Spring, Md.: Found out that my congresswoman Donna Edwards is having a health care town hall this evening at 6 at the Oxon Hill library. Given that she's a liberal black woman and outspoken in favor of a public option (and who would favor single payer) I'm a little worried about right-wing astroturfers showing up and getting way, way out of hand. What could those of us who support her do to help, do you think?

Ezra Klein: Show up.

The Big Picture: You should round up some friends and go to support Donna Edwards tonight! I REALLY wish I could go. Could be a real battle royale, showdown at the OK Corral. On the other hand, you don't want to pick fights with a bunch of racist gun-toting bizarros who probably have concealed shotguns and who are so ideological that who knows where they would stop.

Which is why the best approach is really to shame them with real stories. "Just say no to health care for this dying woman?! Just say no?!?" I'd like Obama to give a speech like that, with a sympathetic woman on stage with him.

The Strike: Yeah, we can’t say it enough times, that IS the approach to take. It can’t be an abstract thing. I watched Sicko again the other day, and if for some reason Michael Moore hadn’t lost a lot of credibility for being right about almost everything, I think we should be showing that movie over and over again. It was all about the excesses of the private insurance industry, and how it took the lives of people’s loved ones.

The Big Picture: Yeah where has he been? I think working on a movie about the financial crisis and who's responsible and who's suffering, which is obviously worthy, but nobody is as good as him at this. I don't really get what Obama and his strategists thought was going to be a good public approach. I always assumed Obama, when he started making this his top priority in July, was going to base it around personal stories and emotion. Bill Clinton of course would be great at this as well - "tell me your question again" "I feel your pain". Very poor. The struggles in Congress have been pretty predictable, but losing the message war, against Bizarros who are defending private insurance against reform, how are we possibly losing that battle? How have we allowed those Bizarros to align with old people wanting to protect their Medicare? Liberals created Medicare, we're the ones who support it, we're trying to strengthen it - the right is still opposed to the existence of Medicare, and yet they've become its defenders? What?

The Daily Strike-3/18/09-The Marathon Part I

Good evening and welcome to the Daily Strike. A lot happened today in the world of politics, so let's get to it. This was such a busy day in politics, that we need two entries to cover it all. This is Part I.

AIG OUTRAGE: The new CEO of AIG Edward Liddy, the man appointed by former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to run the troubled company, had the unenviable task of going in front of a subcommittee of the House Banking and Financial Services Committee. In his opening statement, Liddy claimed that while some of the bonuses were " distasteful," they were still necessary because of "certain legal obligations" and the "cold realities of business." The outrage parade then arrived, with harsh questions from both sides of the aisle.

I don't really have sympathy at all for Liddy, and I think it's absurd that he's defending some of these bonuses, but I would not have wanted to be in his shoes today. Even though he came on to lead AIG after it's collapse, he was the perfect punching bag for members of Congress who want to show their constituents how angry they are. Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) said that AIG stood for " Arrogance, incompetence and greed."

The anger even made its way onto the House floor. The House was supposed to be debating a popular bill expanding national service programs. But the Republicans decided that they wanted to score some "gotcha" points, so they employed some clever parliamentary maneuvering. Let our resident parliamentarian explain:

-In order to proceed to consideration of a special rule governing debate of a particular bill, the House must order the "previous question." A vote for the previous question is basically a vote to move straight to consideration of the rule without amendment. A vote against the previous question means that you want to amend the rule. Usually the previous question is adopted by unanimous consent. Even if you're opposed to the bill, there's no point in holding it up, right? Wrong! If the previous question is defeated, the member who led the opposition(usually a member of the minority) can offer an amendment to the underlying resolution. In this case, the Republicans wanted to offer an amendment to the rule that would have required the House to consider a proposal to have the Treasury Secretary recoup money from AIG. The idea is to put the House Democrats in a bind. If they vote against the previous question, they've turned debate on a non-controversial bill into a circus. If they vote for the previous question, the Republicans will argue, they're voting NOT to recoup money from AIG. It's one of the parliamentary tricks in the minority's bag!

Before the vote, we saw quite a display of outrage on the Republican side. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, who voted for the Bush tax cuts, looked like he was about to scream and cry when he said that he's tired of the government bailing out "millionaires so they can become billionaires." The ultimate chutzpah award goes to Rep. Virginia Foxx, one of the Strike's least favorite members of Congress, who went as far as comparing the public service bill to the AIG bailouts.

"In both cases, we're sending money out the door with no standards for effectiveness." Wow.

Luckily, the Democrats understood what was going on. They're going to offer their own plan to tax the bonuses of AIG and other companies receiving bailout money tomorrow, so they had a good excuse to move the previous question. It wasn't easy though; 8 Democrats couldn't take the plunge: Barrow (GA), Childers (MS), Kosmas (FL), McNerney (CA), Mitchell (AZ), Nye (VA), Perriello (VA), and Taylor (MS). These members are from vulnerable/conservative districts, and probably didn't want to get bombarded with phone calls asking them why they voted against getting taxpayer money back from AIG!

So the House did consider the public service bill. More on that later.

The President also weighed in the AIG fiasco with an impromptu speech before he boarded Marine One on his way to California. The President not only criticized AIG for its recklessness, but also took a shot at some critics, presumably Republicans, who are feigning outrage right now, but have enabled this culture in the past. The President also proposed the idea of a resolution authority over financial firms like AIG, which would perform a similar function as the FDIC. My guess is that Congress instead passes something that better captures the public outrage.

GEITHNER/DODD ISSUES: The President also reiterated his support of Treasury Secretary Geithner in his speech today. Any way you look at it, Geithner is having a tough time. But his troubles may pale in comparison to Senator Christopher Dodd. I wrote yesterday about Senator Dodd's political troubles at home, but little did I know. Today we learned that Senator Dodd tried to include a provision in the stimulus bill that would exempt companies who received bailout money prior to February 11th from restrictions on bonus money. He first denied inserting the provision, but today admitted to CNN that he took the provision at the advice of a member of the Obama Treasury department. Ouch.

I think Obama needs to figure out who in the Treasury Department made the request, and he needs to take responsibility for what happened. As for Senator Dodd, he may need to start making some retirement plans.

THE HOUSE: Let's get to the less sexy, but equally important, story of the day: legislative business in Congress. The House passed a bill today to authorize increased funding for various public service programs. The bill is expected to expand the public service job corps by 250,000. In the House, the bill was co-sponsored by the chair of the Education and Labor Committee, George Miller (D-CA) and ranking Republican Buck McKeon (CA).

After ordering the previous question, the House passed a rule governing debate on the bill. Republicans mostly voted against the rule in protest of there not being a vote on their bill to recoup money from AIG. The only Republican who voted for the rule was Rep. Todd Platts of Pennsylvania, who was one of the bill's lead advocates. Two Democrats, Reps. Mitchell (AZ) and Taylor (MS) voted against the rule.

The rule allowed for 11 amendments, most of which were not too controversial. Several of them were adopted by unanimous consent:

-The first was an amendment from Rep. Duncan Hunter Jr. (R-CA) that "would remove veteran's educational benefits from being taken into account when calculating the maximum award an individual could receive for participating in one of the national service programs." Sounds reasonable enough.

-Next an amendment by Rep. Roskam (R-IL) that would " require all authorized programs to be reviewed by the OMB's Program Assessment Rating Tool; require GAO to do a study on the National Civilian Community Corps program; and, amend the underlying legislation to continue the annual evaluation requirement for the National Civilian Community Corps, not a single evaluation by 2014. " Seems like a reasonable oversight provision.

-Next, an amendment by Rep. Hill (D-IN) that seems hard to oppose: "to denote that sending care packages to soldiers deployed in combat zones overseas is included as an eligible service program."

-Finally an amendment by Rep. Teague to aid veterans in their pursuit of education and professional opportunities, help veterans with the claims process, and assist rural, disabled, and unemployed veterans with transportation needs.

The amendments that were voted on are as follows:

-An amendment by Rep. Chellie Pingrie (D-ME)" to add to the list of approved Clean Energy Corps activities the development of clean energy programs designed to meet the needs of rural communities." Passed 388-36. All no votes were from Republicans.

-An amendment by Rep. David Loebsack (D-IA) "to authorize a new grant program, the Volunteer Generation Fund, to be administered by the Corporation for National and Community Service. Passed 261-168. 11 Republicans voted yes, and 5 Democrats voted no."

-An amendment by freshman Rep. Phil Roe of Tennessee "to set an authorization for AmeriCorps, the Trust, Innovative programs, audits and evaluations at the FY 2008 level for FY 2010, and as such sums as may be necessary for fiscal years 2011 through 2014. In other words, freeze the spending levels for these programs at 2008 funding levels. Would sort of defeat the purpose of the bill, no? It failed 175-256. 4 Democrats voted yes, 3 Republicans voted no. Pretty close party line vote."

-An amendment by freshman Rep. Kilroy (D-OH) "to provide volunteers to supervise physical education classes at elementary and secondary schools, provide nutrition education to students, and supervise, organize, and manage after school physical activity/education programs. The amendment would also provide services to these elderly people through food deliveries, legal and medical services provided in the home, and transportation. " It passed overwhelmingly 372-57. The only Democrat to vote against it Rep. Berry of Arkansas.

-An amendment by freshman Rep. Markey (D-CO) "to increase the operational support given to organizations for full-time individuals enrolled in an approved national service position. The amendment proposes increasing the support from $600 to $800 and from $800 to $1000 if program supports at least 50 percent disadvantaged youth. " Passed 283-147. 30 Republicans voted for it, 2 Democrats voted against it, including Rep. Berry again (what's up with him?).

-Finally (phew!!) an amendment by another freshman, Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) "to create a National Service Reserve Corps and requires an annual service requirement of at least 10 hours and/or annual training. A member of the National Service Reserve Corps is one who has completed a term of national service, fulfilled training, and will respond to national disasters and other emergencies. These individuals will be listed in a national database for the ease of immediate deployment in case of emergency. " Passed 339-93. The only Democrat voting no was, you guessed it, Mr. Berry!

Allright, done with amendments! Oh wait, the Republicans get their chance to change the bill through a motion to recommit. Usually these motions are defeated because they always are proposed by the minority party. However, the House adopted the motion, meaning it included a Republican amendment that forbid money from going to their list of boogie man groups like ACORN and Planned Parenthood. Democrats felt ok voting for it after the liberal chairman of the committee, George Miller, said he didn't object to it. The motion passed 318-105. All no votes were from Democrats.

The bill itself was passed 321-105. Guess who the one Democrat voting no was? I guess Rep. Berry doesn't believe in national service.

Alright, I'm running out of breath, be back for Part II in a bit.

The Daily Strike-3/17/09-O'Bama

Happy St. Patrick's Day and welcome to the Daily Strike. Be sure you are up to date on our last few entries. Let's go over what happened this Tuesday in politics.

OBAMA: The President had yet another busy day, mostly focused on the economy. Luckily, he didn't have to face any direct questions from the press, unlike his poor press secretary Robert Gibbs, who had to take heat for an hour on the AIG bonus fiasco.

The President started the day by meeting with the chairmen of the House and Senate budget committees Rep. John Spratt (D-SC) and Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND). Both of these chairman, especially Senator Conrad, have criticized various parts of the budget. Obama's message to them was clear: don't let your petty grievances get in the way of getting the budget passed. He made a speech with Conrad and Spratt behind him in which he implored his critics to offer solutions instead of partisan rhetoric. As the Big Picture said today, it's been a couple of weeks since the President really went tooth and nail against his critics to push his agenda. Today's scenario was perfect, because while he was on the surface criticizing his Republican critics, he was also telling these reticent, power-hungry chairmen to get with the program. These chairman want to assert their power, and won't defer even to a President of their own party. We all need to remind these men that Obama was elected with 65 million votes, when each of them got 300,000 max.

The President also made sure to commemorate the holiday (don't want to lose the Irish Catholics!). He announced the nomination of Pittsburgh Steelers' owner Dan Rooney as ambassador to Ireland. Rooney was a huge Obama supporter during the campaign in Pennsylvania. What's wrong with a little political playback once in awhile? The President also attended a St. Patrick's Day event at Speaker Pelosi's office at the Capitol. Tonight, he's hosting 400 people at the White House for a party. I guarantee you some Republicans will try to make this into an issue.

The today also:

-Sat down for interviews with CBS' 60 Minutes and ESPN's SportsCenter
-Filled out his NCAA Tournament Bracket
-Announced that he'll hold a joint event with California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger this week.
-Announced his first nominee for the Federal Appeals Court. The President appointed David Hamilton, a moderate district court judge from Indiana. He sought and received approval from Indiana Senators Evan Bayh (Democrat) and Richard Lugar (Republican). Amazingly, an administration admitted that even though this guy was moderate, this doesn't mean Obama will shy away from appointing liberal judges in the future. Already, the conservative group Judicial Watch attacked this judge as an "ultra-liberal." I guess, considering that they're attacking someone supported by Dick Lugar, they're not too good at picking their battles.

CONGRESS: Most of the action on Capitol Hill was off the floors of the House and Senate today. Senate Democrats, trying to quell outrage at the AIG bonuses, announced that they're trying to craft a bill to tax as much of the bonus as possible. The idea is that they'd tax the bonuses at 65%, and with the normal 35% income tax rate, almost all of the money would be returned to the Government. I'm not sure if the proposal will come to the floor this week, but if it does, it will be tough for Senators to vote against. Charles Rangel, the chairman of the House tax writing committee, balked at the idea, so who knows if it can make it to the House floor. The White House is still trying to figure out a legal recourse to nullify these bonuses.

Also, Senate Republicans held a new conference blasting various elements of President Obama's budget. The press conference is in advance of the upcoming debate on a Democratic non-binding budget resolution, which should come to the floor in a couple of weeks. House Republicans will hold their own "anti-Obama-budget" rally tomorrow, featuring Mr. "Drown Government in the Bathtub" himself, Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist.

No votes in the Senate today as it continues consideration of the "Tomnibus" bill (See previous entries for an explanation of the bill). Senator Coburn (R-OK), the man who has held up almost all provisions of the bill through parliamentary tactics, has proposed six amendments. All of the amendments strike various provisions in the bill. Votes on the amendments are expected tomorrow, with final passage could come late Wednesday or Thursday. The final vote, per an agreement reached between the two leaders, will require 60 votes for passage.

The House voted on a few non-controversial bills under suspension of the rules today. The House returns to legislative business tomorrow to consider the bill to expand public service programs. The Rules Committee is allowing the House to vote on ten amendments to the bill, so consideration could take several hours. More details on these amendments tomorrow.

POLITICS CENTRAL: A couple quick updates on political races.

-NY20: The race to replace newly appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in upstate New York continues to get more interesting by the day. Republican candidate Jim Tedisco announced that he would have voted against the stimulus. For weeks, Tedisco has refused to say how he would have voted on the bill. It now seems like race between Tedisco and Democratic nominee Scott Murphy could turn out to be a proxy referendum on the stimulus bill. At least that's the way the winning party will try to spin it.

-Connecitcut Senate: Christopher Dodd, the longtime Senator and chairman of the Senate Banking Committee could be in a lot of trouble in his bid for reelection last year. Dodd is losing popularity fast in his home state after it was revealed that he took special home refinancing deals from Countrywide Insurance. He has also been criticized for blocking attempts to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (that's what the Republicans argue, at least). It doesn't help that Dodd is also the biggest recipient of AIG donations in the United States Senate. It's no coincidence that he was one of the Senators pushing to tax the bonuses today. To make matters worse, former Connecticut Rep. Rob Simmons has announced his candidacy for the seat. Simmons lost his reelection race by 48 votes in 2006 to Rep. Joe Courtney, falling victim to the Democratic wave. But he still remains popular in his district, and has high name recognition in the state. I would predict that Dodd might be one of the most vulnerable Democratic Senators up for reelection next year. We'll be doing a comprehensive analysis of next year's Senate races in the next couple of weeks.

That's it for today! See you tomorrow!